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Warmer Storms Approach Tahoe

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  Tuesday and Wednesday (3/2, 3/3) The Arctic air has cleared the area making room for a much warmer storm to hit the area starting late on Wednesday and lasting through Thursday. As I wrote in my last blog, the bulk of the energy in this storm is heading north of us. This storm was born in the south and does carry significant moisture. I am pretty comfortable with the time frame of when this storm is going to hit. However, I would be remiss to not mention that the EC model has this storm hitting about 24 hours later on Thursday night. How much precip can we expect? That is a good question. Right now it looks like a quick hitting event that will produce snow at or above Lake Level. Any moisture for the valley will come in the form of rain. However a strong south wind may well shield the valley from any precip. It will be windy. Slide mountain will also be affected by this wind as the snow totals will be less than the Sierra Crest. Here is what the NAM model see's for total precip:

Next Two Storms

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After another healthy shot of snow for the Sierra, we will have gradual warming starting tomorrow. The models are now downplaying the weather event on the 3rd, however both the EC and GFS are in agreement that a storm will be moving through the area. Late on the 2nd our next storm should come in. This is a big storm but does appear to have  most of the energy moving to the north: The 6th or the 8th looks like more of a direct hit, here is the EC Forecast for the 8th, incidentally, GFS has this storm coming on the 6th of March as a start to a series of storms. In my last post I talked about a weather pattern change for around the 12th or 13th of March. I may have jumped the gun on that one. I point at two pieces of evidence for this. First, the EC model shows a series of storms heading for Tahoe from the 6th of March through at least the 14th. Secondly, the PNA's positive trend is short lived and starts to trend much more negatively. Take a look: My gut tells me that this

Latest Model Runs Show Increase In Precip Totals - Severe Avalanche Warning

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Current Storm Just a quick post this morning. I just looked at the latest QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) run from the NAM weather model. It is calling for about 2-3 inches of liquid precip by Sunday. Remember, this storm is bringing in super cooled Arctic air. Many forecasters are calling for 20-1 or even 25-1 snow to water ratios. That means many parts of the Sierra around Tahoe could pick up 4 feet of snow or more. This will be the lightest snow we have seen in years (champagne powder). Here is a look at the NAM forecast: Severe Avalanche Danger Today This from the Sierra Avalanche Center ( Click For Sierra Avalanche Center ):   Near and above treeline, avalanche danger is HIGH on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects 32 degrees and steeper. Below treeline avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Large destructive avalanches are likely today. Next Storm (March 2nd) The next storm will be warmer and come from the south and west. It too

Storm Cycle To End Around The 13th or 14th

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Pattern Change For the first time we are seeing indications that the blocking high to our North and West will be moving on and a ridge will set up to our south and west. This would suggest that our current storm cycle may end in about 14-17 days from now. The NOAA PNA is beginning to trend positive: The PNA is a very good indicator for our general weather pattern. In addition, temps look to be on the rebound around this same time with perhaps an above average reading for the first time in weeks. Of course this is still 2-3 weeks down the road. Storm Update We are still on Track for a quick moving, very cold storm to hit very early on Friday and last through the day. Then the following Thursday could usher in a series of much larger storms that could hang around for an additional 4-5 days. For more detail see yesterday's post. This series of storms will come from the west and should knock our blocking high out, which would change the weather pattern, at least that is the co

Storm Cycle To Start Up Again Friday

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The blocking ridge of high pressure off the Pacific NW coast, with it's clockwise rotation, has created a corridor for cold air to move south out of the Gulf of Alaska, down the NW coast and right into our area. This cold air is sucking warm moist air into it and creating what should be repeated snow events for at least the next couple of weeks. It will remain cold during the entire period, with the only warming coming from the sun, as our air will be exclusively coming out of the north. Starting Friday and Lasting until about Saturday morning, a quick moving storm will bring super cooled air into our area and leave us a decent blanket of very light powder. This storm will affect the leeward valleys. Expect more snow in your yard if you live in Reno or Carson City. Although there is not a ton of moisture associated with this storm, the water to snow ratio's will be very high, in the 15-1 to 20-1 neighborhood. It think it is a safe bet that the storm leaves behind 1-3 feet of

Winter Is Here To Stay

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Expect well below average temperatures, in some cases 30 degrees below average, until next weekend. The storm that is/was being forecasted for Tuesday will drop right down the coast and remain offshore. It will produce no significant precip for our area. The models nailed this one, see my prior post for more. If you review my prior post, the blocking ridge of high pressure will remain in place for at least the next 2 weeks, and probably longer. That blocking ridge creates a corridor, and favorable northwest flow, for storms to drop down the coast and have a significant affect on our weather. Expect a good 4 or 5 decent storms to drop down the coast and bring moderate to heavy snow to the Sierra over the next few weeks. That of course includes Tahoe. Here is the timing for now: Early Friday Morning ( 2/25) Late Saturday Night (2/26)    Thursday Morning (3/3) March 8th The further out these storms are, the more they are subject to change. I think, however, you get the pict

Extraordinary Weather System Continues To Pound Tahoe

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This is truly an extraordinary weather system. Current conditions in Reno and along the Mt. Rose Cooridor: LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SETUP OFF OF LAKE TAHOE AND THROUGH THE MOUNT ROSE HIGHWAY AREA INTO WASHOE/PLEASANT VALLEY. -- NWS Reno Yes that does say Lake Effect snow from Tahoe is affecting the Western Nevada Valleys. Take a look at the big picture currently: As you undoubtedly felt, a strong cold front moved through the Tahoe area yesterday. Of course with it, cold air has settled in. However a warm front is now pushing up from the south and is preparing to collide with our cold air. The blocking high pressure system is still firmly in place to pull the warm, moist air up into our area. This feeds the storm located off the coast of Southern BC. What does it all mean? Snow and lots of it for the Sierra. We are now leaning toward much of this snow spilling over into the leeward valleys of the Sierra, including Reno and Carson City. The NWS is talking about 5 to 10 inches