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First El Nino Storm, Turbulent November in the Cards

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A smallish storm sitting off the coast of Oregon is having an effect on our weather and will continue to do so. Tomorrow ushers in some moisture that should be snow in the upper elevations. The storm will weaken as it moves inland and therefore the amount of moisture will be limited. Here is a look at the forecast for very early tomorrow morning: This storm will bring a healthy amount of moisture to the Northern California coast, but lacks the lift to make it far into the Sierra with any kind of significant moisture content. 6-12 inches are possible on the western crest with up to 6 inches in the Carson range, above 8,500 feet. If the models get this wrong, we could see even more, so keep your fingers crossed. Looking ahead, the westerlies start to show up around the 1st or 2nd of the month. A storm, straight from the west, will have an impact on Central California and our area. Here is a look at the forecast for November 2nd: As with most storms from the south and west, th

One Shot to Put Out Kings Fire

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The seasons first Northern Pacific storm comes rolling in this week. Looking at the weather for the next 2-3 weeks, this is our only shot to give the 5,000 fire fighters a chance to dampen, or if we get really lucky, put that thing out. Here is a look at the forecast for late Thursday: This storm is coming surprisingly south for this time of year. It will bring quite a bit of moisture with it, at least for this time of year. That will turn up the humidity and turn down the temps. It is suppose to weaken the further inland it moves, however if we get really lucky, the entire Kings Fire could get a good soaking. Temps will drop around 15-20 degrees and then slowly recover by Sunday. There is a chance for much cooler air to come into the area the following weekend, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. El Nino - 2014 New satellite images are restoring hope for at least a weak to moderate El Nino event that could occur in November/December. Remember last May the forecasters

Winter 2014/2015; Anything but Certain

Back in May I received a preliminary ENSO report from a commodity trader. That report called for an epic El Nino starting in July. By epic I mean stronger than strong. Because of our recent dry conditions, I decided to hold off on telling you all to get ready for the 2014/2015 ski season that is sure to be the greatest. I am glad I held off. Briefly: El Nino is a weather anomaly where waters off the west coast of Central America (Equatorial Pacific) warm. When that happens a number changes are supposed to take place in the atmosphere, starting with a reversal of the trade winds. That reversal of the winds usually brings wetter and warmer storms further south into California. That has yet to materialize. Because of the lack of storms this time of year, you may be saying, what is he talking about? I am not talking about the storms I am talking about the trade winds and the southern jet stream which are still on their traditional course, the westerlies have simply failed to materialize

As Mountain Closes, Storm Door Opens

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We have a series of storms heading our way as the storm cycle restarts. With Mt. Rose closed, there are still plenty of other areas to get your fix. We can certainly use the precip. Starting Monday, we will notice a change. By the time Tuesday roles around we are looking at 20 degree cooler high temperatures and stormy weather. The mountains will pick up some snow. An unusually large storm is heading our way for next weekend. It is going to park over our area and effect our weather Friday-Monday. Here is a look at late Saturday night: This storm should be a major precipitation event for the Sierra, especially for this time of year. The storm will take it's time getting here and take it's time leaving. Here is a look at the total precip for the event: The crest of the Sierra will pick up 4-5 inches of liquid precip. Snow levels, however, will be very high. Usually this time of year, storms have trouble making it over the crest. I see 2-3 inches liquid headed for th

Next Storm Should Hit Late Tonight

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The 3rd storm in the last week is approaching as I write this and should hit late tonight. This will not be as big as the storm we saw on Saturday and very early Sunday, but will leave more preicip especially west of the crest and south of Lake Tahoe. Here is a look at the forecast for late tonight: This storm is also going to slide down the crest. Like the last storm, the Carson range could get shadowed out. Amazing the difference in precip between the crest of the Sierra and the Carson range. Sugar Bowl reported 5 feet of snow, while Mt. Rose got around a foot. I drove over the Donner Summit yesterday and it was pretty amazing the amount of snow they picked up in 36 hours. By the time we got to Truckee there was just a minor amount. When forecasting the weather, it is really hard to predict the rain shadow anomaly. Suffice it to say, very beneficial rains fell west of the crest in both the northern and central Sierra. I would expect more of the same with this storm to a lesser

Tahoe In Bulls Eye For Next Two Storms; El Nino on the Horizon

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Not a lot has changed with our forecast from earlier in the week. The first of the three storms we forecast came through and brought winter back to the region. It also left behind some much needed moisture. As we said, this was the weakest of the storms. The next two storms are going to pack much more moisture. The next storm begins to make its presence felt for the Sierra early Saturday Morning. This storm will develop and pick up moisture from the Pacific. This storm will hang around for about 36-48 hours and should dump 2-4 feet of snow on the Western Crest and about half that in the Carson Range by Sunday night. Here is a look at Saturday night's forecast: Right behind this system is the next system which makes its approach around noon on Monday. Here is a look at the forecast for Monday around noon, I expect similar precip numbers from the Saturday/Sunday storm: Here is a look at total liquid precip for the next 6 or so days: As I look out to next week, an

Stormy Week Starts Late Tuesday

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A series of storms are going to break down our ridge of high pressure and bring a major change in our weather pattern starting tomorrow night. Today and Tomorrow will be our last calm days for some time to come. As NOAA has issued an El Nino watch, we can expect a more unstable weather pattern through the spring and possibly into the summer. First let's look at this next week: First, weak storm should have an effect on our weather starting Tuesday Evening. This storm will stick around for about a day or two. Next stronger storm, gathers its strength to the north and comes in late on Saturday. This is a stronger storm but will only stick around for about 12-18 hours. This storm has major precip associated with it so if it slows just a bit, look for a major event. Third and strongest storm (of the week) comes in around 2:00pm on Monday, March 31st. This storm will have an impact on the Central Sierra as well. This storm and the remnants of it, could stick around through Wednesday