Tahoe Weather Blog

A series of small storms are headed our way starting very early Thursday and lasting through Sunday. I do not see any major precip events, but before all is said and done we could see a few feet of mountain snow around the crest and about a foot in the Carson range. There are 3 distinct waves headed our way. Wave 1 Earl Thursday Morning Wave 2 Early Friday Morning Wave 3 Late Saturday As you can see for yourself, the 3rd wave is the biggest of all, but still not very impressive. Here is a look at the total precip for the 3 waves combined: The Western Crest of the Sierra could see some areas in the 1-2 inch range, especially north. The Carson range is in the .5 to 1 inch range. That will translate into about a foot of snow by next Monday above 7,000 feet. Probably not enough to fill up the ponds for the pond hockey players. I continue to read that things are setting up nicely. Traditionally this sort of setup can usher in larger and wetter storms. However...

Summer/Fall have been very stubborn to leave. With just a few exceptions, Old Man Winter has been nowhere to be found. However, we live in Tahoe and we are due, so you know that is going to change. I am picking up a change in the pattern coming around Thursday of next week. The culprit (for our nice weather), as usual, is the high pressure ridge which is setup just off the California Coast. There are indications that we could slide that ridge south and allow the storms to start to effect our area. Here is a current look at our weather. Notice the high pressure ridge and how it is blocking any storms from our area: Here is a look at the middle of next week, notice how the ridge has slid south opening the door for at least some storm activity: Right now, the storm on tap for next Thursday looks like it will weaken as it approaches the Sierra. However it could hang around for a couple of days and it is still 6 days out so a lot can change. Here is a look at very early on Thu...

A smallish storm sitting off the coast of Oregon is having an effect on our weather and will continue to do so. Tomorrow ushers in some moisture that should be snow in the upper elevations. The storm will weaken as it moves inland and therefore the amount of moisture will be limited. Here is a look at the forecast for very early tomorrow morning: This storm will bring a healthy amount of moisture to the Northern California coast, but lacks the lift to make it far into the Sierra with any kind of significant moisture content. 6-12 inches are possible on the western crest with up to 6 inches in the Carson range, above 8,500 feet. If the models get this wrong, we could see even more, so keep your fingers crossed. Looking ahead, the westerlies start to show up around the 1st or 2nd of the month. A storm, straight from the west, will have an impact on Central California and our area. Here is a look at the forecast for November 2nd: As with most storms from the south and west, th...

The seasons first Northern Pacific storm comes rolling in this week. Looking at the weather for the next 2-3 weeks, this is our only shot to give the 5,000 fire fighters a chance to dampen, or if we get really lucky, put that thing out. Here is a look at the forecast for late Thursday: This storm is coming surprisingly south for this time of year. It will bring quite a bit of moisture with it, at least for this time of year. That will turn up the humidity and turn down the temps. It is suppose to weaken the further inland it moves, however if we get really lucky, the entire Kings Fire could get a good soaking. Temps will drop around 15-20 degrees and then slowly recover by Sunday. There is a chance for much cooler air to come into the area the following weekend, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. El Nino - 2014 New satellite images are restoring hope for at least a weak to moderate El Nino event that could occur in November/December. Remember last May the forecasters...

Back in May I received a preliminary ENSO report from a commodity trader. That report called for an epic El Nino starting in July. By epic I mean stronger than strong. Because of our recent dry conditions, I decided to hold off on telling you all to get ready for the 2014/2015 ski season that is sure to be the greatest. I am glad I held off. Briefly: El Nino is a weather anomaly where waters off the west coast of Central America (Equatorial Pacific) warm. When that happens a number changes are supposed to take place in the atmosphere, starting with a reversal of the trade winds. That reversal of the winds usually brings wetter and warmer storms further south into California. That has yet to materialize. Because of the lack of storms this time of year, you may be saying, what is he talking about? I am not talking about the storms I am talking about the trade winds and the southern jet stream which are still on their traditional course, the westerlies have simply failed to materialize ...

We have a series of storms heading our way as the storm cycle restarts. With Mt. Rose closed, there are still plenty of other areas to get your fix. We can certainly use the precip. Starting Monday, we will notice a change. By the time Tuesday roles around we are looking at 20 degree cooler high temperatures and stormy weather. The mountains will pick up some snow. An unusually large storm is heading our way for next weekend. It is going to park over our area and effect our weather Friday-Monday. Here is a look at late Saturday night: This storm should be a major precipitation event for the Sierra, especially for this time of year. The storm will take it's time getting here and take it's time leaving. Here is a look at the total precip for the event: The crest of the Sierra will pick up 4-5 inches of liquid precip. Snow levels, however, will be very high. Usually this time of year, storms have trouble making it over the crest. I see 2-3 inches liquid headed for th...

The 3rd storm in the last week is approaching as I write this and should hit late tonight. This will not be as big as the storm we saw on Saturday and very early Sunday, but will leave more preicip especially west of the crest and south of Lake Tahoe. Here is a look at the forecast for late tonight: This storm is also going to slide down the crest. Like the last storm, the Carson range could get shadowed out. Amazing the difference in precip between the crest of the Sierra and the Carson range. Sugar Bowl reported 5 feet of snow, while Mt. Rose got around a foot. I drove over the Donner Summit yesterday and it was pretty amazing the amount of snow they picked up in 36 hours. By the time we got to Truckee there was just a minor amount. When forecasting the weather, it is really hard to predict the rain shadow anomaly. Suffice it to say, very beneficial rains fell west of the crest in both the northern and central Sierra. I would expect more of the same with this storm to a lesser ...