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One Storm then Dry Through Christmas

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We need this next storm to produce. In a year where the storms have under performed, we have what could be an okay storm that could bring a foot of snow. That storm comes in very late on Sunday and should last through early Monday morning. The GFS has this storm moving through much faster than the EC, but we are confident this one should leave behind some snow. Here is a look at late Sunday night: After this storm, the models are saying dry weather for at least the next week as our ridge moves back into position. There will be a few glancing blows, but overall we see no major snow events for the Sierra. That is the bad news, the good news is, the ridge should break down shortly after Christmas which will give us a chance for additional storms to move through the area. Conditions have just not been favorable for a major snow event, unfortunately. We will keep an eye way out and report accordingly. Stay Tuned ...

Two Storms Headed Our Way

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The weather pattern remains active, despite the very disappointing performance of this last storm. We are tracking two storms; one for late Friday and another for late Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Friday storm, the weaker of the two: Here is the forecast for the Sunday night storm: Both of these system are fast moving so we will not see any epic dumps out of this. However, in a best case scenario Mt. Rose could pick up a couple of feet by this time next week with the bulk of the snow coming late next weekend. Valley Inversions The leeward valley's will continue this awful inversion which is trapping the fog and moisture until about Wednesday. A very weak and dry system should cause significant mixing and kick that crap out of here which should allow the sun to finally shine through and warm us into the upper 40's or low 50's, especially Friday and over the weekend as these storms approach. The next two systems will remove any remnants of the fog and h

A Couple of Near Misses, Then a Chance For Something Better

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The weather pattern remains active with several storms coming at us from the west. Currently, the models have these storms with just a glancing blow on Wednesday (12/5) and Saturday (12/8). However, both the GFS and EC models are showing the possibility of a moderate storm coming into the Tahoe area around the 9th  of December. We talked about this in our last post. First here is the ECWMF forecast for early on the 10th of December: Here is the GFS forecast for just about the same time: We don't see this as a very strong storm, but a lot can change between now and then. There is the possibility of another storm around the 15th of December, then we may be looking at our ridge moving back off the coast for a week or so. As of now we are looking at a dry period between the 15th of December and the 23rd. The storms return around Christmas and should be much stronger. Stay Tuned ...

Storms Update; Epic December in Store?

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After a very disappointing performance by the snow gods last week, we are on the eve of several storms for this week. The first of those storms arrives tomorrow (11/27) late afternoon: Although the models have this storm weakening as it makes land, it does pick up some sub-tropical moisture, which is revealing for the next storm. This first storm will hit in several waves, with snow levels starting around 7,500-8,000 feet and falling to around 6,000 feet as the storm passes through. The second storm has the most potential and the NWS is calling for a major snow event above 7,000 feet. Generally when they do this, it happens, they are the experts after all. The 2nd, in our series of storms, arrives late Wednesday night from the Southwest. This storm will bring down some cooler air and I am confident this one will be all snow for Mt. Rose. The other ski areas may start with rain at their lowest elevations, but this storm will fall well below lake level and should be very benef

Storm Door to Remain Wide Open

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Another storm is poised to hit the Tahoe Area today and should get cranking this afternoon. This storm will pull sub-tropical moisture from the south, which will raise snow levels to 8,000 feet or higher. After a short break, the storms return on Tuesday and should last through Thursday and even into Friday. Here is a look at the peak of next week's storms late Wednesday night (11/28): Snow levels next week will probably be 7,000 feet or lower, but we will get a better indication in a few days. After another short break, a large storm moves into the Pacific NW and will potentially bring a major weather event to Tahoe. Right now the models have the bulk of the energy staying north, but if that storm shifts just a bit south, we could be talking about a real Sierra Blizzard event. Here is what things may look like Saturday December 1st. Regardless, this storm will bring additional heavy snow to the region: So the total precip outlook for the next week or so looks lik

Two Storms Will Bring Moderate Snow to Sierra and Carson Range

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Two well advertised storms (we started talking about these nearly 4 weeks ago) are poised to hit the Sierra and Carson Range. A large storm, that we talked about 2 weeks ago, could be on tap for a week from Thanksgiving. Here are the details: Tomorrow 4:00 pm Friday 4:00 am This should be all snow for Mt. Rose at 8,200. The bulk of the precip will see a snow level from 7,000 to 7,500. As the cold fronts move through those levels will drop to around 6,000 feet. The professionals over at the NWS believe the storm on tap for tomorrow will be the bigger producer. I think the storm for Friday could match tomorrow's or even exceed it. I was concerned about trajectory and a shadow effect. But right now things look good for the Carson range to pick up 18-36 inches by Sunday morning. This pattern is showing no signs of stopping. Next week I will talk about the ridge getting thrown around, but for now  that storm we talked about a couple of posts ago looks good for the 29t

As Ridge Moves West, Storm Door Opens. Winter Starts Next Week.

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If you have read any of our recent posts, you know that we are forecasting our persistent ridge in the Jet to move west and get out of the way of a series of storms. We have been guessing the timing anywhere from the 18th to the 29th. Well it looks like on the 21st, our first storm will drop down from the north, pick up ample moisture from the south and kickoff winter, perhaps just in time for Thanksgiving weekend skiing! This will be the first in a series of storms that should stick around for a while. We are confidently counting three storms and are not looking out past that third storm. Here is the timing as of now, of course subject to minor changes: Wednesday November 21st at 10:00pm Friday November 23rd at 4:00am Saturday November 24th 4:00pm Obviously, we are still a ways out so the timing is subject to change. But barring any unforeseen event, we should be looking at a very snowy Thanksgiving holiday. With any luck, these storms will put out the f