Tahoe Weather Blog

Changes should be coming to the Sierra in about a week to 10 days. However with all the cold air still trapped in the arctic, the storms headed our way are weak. In fact the Pacific born storms are all weak. We are about to conclude our driest December in the last 130+ years, with no measurable precipitation in the Central and Northern Sierra. Having said all of that, the changes that I have been forecasting are still en route, but ever so slow. GFS has a fairly weak system coming ashore around the 5th of January, however this system will die as it attempts to rise above the Sierra. Here is a forecast look for the 5th along with the total forecasted precip through the 10th of January. 1/5/2011 Total Precip through the 10th Again, without the cold air, we are not seeing storms of any significance. Right now we need about 6-10 feet of snow just to open most ski areas completely. Right now I do not see that happening any time soon. Having said that, many of the long range mo

As I wrote in my last post, high pressure has been blocking anything from getting down to our area. However that ridge is showing signs of weakening and because of that it is being shoved south and west. This is allowing small storms to come down the coast and have at least a minor impact on Tahoe. Moving forward, these storms will gradually pick up in intensity. It looks like the first big storm of the season will arrive here sometime between Christmas and New Years. Both the EC and GFS long range models are showing signs of enhanced storm intensity. These storms are also moving much further south. EC has a small system coming our way in a little over a week. (Figure 1) Figure 1 - 12/24 Notice how this storm is still off the coast as it heads south. This is much more typical of an El Nino year than a La Nina year. Pretty much means you can throw the Nino/Ninas out the window this year. A series of larger storms start to make their way into our area starting around the 28th.

The stubborn high pressure ridge that has blocked all storms from sniffing our area is showing signs of moving south. That will open a large corridor for major storms to hit our area. However those storms will probably not start until around the Christmas Eve or Christmas Day at the earliest. I have displayed two images below, the first is where the blocking high pressure ridge has been and is now. The second is the GFS forecast for where it will be around the 20th of December.  Notice that the high pressure ridge is much smaller and about 1,000 miles south. The next challenge is for that ridge to move a bit west and the storm corridor will be open, big time. Current Conditions December 20th Conditions I said this in my last post and I believe it is worth repeating. A typical La Nina year will not have as many storms but should produce an average amount of precipitation. This weather pattern, if it holds true, is setting up for some giant storms to slam the Tahoe area around C

Our slow start to winter will continue for at least the next couple of weeks and probably until around mid December. Currently we have two large areas of High Pressure that are blocking any activity from getting anywhere near us. The only action we will see are sliders that come inland well north of us and slide down the through Washington and Oregon. Traditionally, these storms bring little if any precipitation. However, they do bring cold weather. Look for cooler temperatures for the next 3 or 4 days then a chance for a big warm up as the two high pressure systems become one and totally dominate our weather. I will keep an eye out for a change in this highly unusual pattern. Generally when a pattern like this breaks, it is a major event. I am guessing between the 15th and the end of December we could see some really stormy weather. I believe it was 4 years ago we had a similar slow start. Rose made snow from NW all the way down Kit to the bottom, that is how late winter was. Shortl

Thanksgiving Travel Travel should not be affected by the weather for the entire weekend. The Sierra, mostly north, will see some light snow between noon and 4:00pm on Thanksgiving day. After that the roads should be clear and driving conditions should be excellent.   Bad News For Skiers and Riders A very slow start to winter is upon us. Mt. Rose was unable to open due to lack of snow and even snow making conditions. In addition, the decent sized storm that the models predicted a week ago has weakened considerably, will split and have nearly no impact whatsoever on the Sierra. To make matters worse for skiers and riders, a strong ridge of high pressure will move in and camp out, preventing any storms from moving into the area for the foreseeable future. As high pressure moves in it will block anything that does make it to our area from getting any sort of moisture tap. That means wind and no precipitation. Here is what we are looking at. Notice the 2nd area of high pressure. It wi

  Yucksville We have been in a frustrating pattern that has baffled the weather models and made weather forecasters look like babbling idiots, including yours truly. Having said all that, I have not been far off. I also search for storms that are way out and try to will them in. Not exactly scientific but many skiers and riders like that about this column ... something to possibly look forward to. Storm 1 I am looking at a couple of storms. The first is knocking on the door. The models are generally in agreement. The storm, born in the Gulf of Ak, will travel down the west coast and cut inland somewhere between Central California and the Mexican border. However, GFS has this storm going right by us while EC has the storm coming down the coast more to the east and at least giving us a glancing blow. The first image is the GFS forecast, the 2nd is the EC forecast. This is for tonight and tomorrow. If the models are not in agreement 12-24 hours out ... then it is anybody's guess

Thanksgiving Day Blizzard I am tracking a decent storm that appears to be heading right for us on Thanksgiving Day. Obviously, your favorite Tahoe mountain will not be open by Thanksgiving, but if this thing holds together, it may be shortly thereafter. Amazingly, the two big long range models (GFS, EC) are in agreement about this one which is rare this far out. In addition the PNA is going negative for the last half of the month. Here is what GFS shows for Thanksgiving day: GFS and EC are showing between 2-4 inches of liquid precip with this storm which could translate into 18-40 inches of snow, if we are lucky: Notice the bulk of the precip staying to our north. However if a little more of that energy comes down to us we could turn this into a much bigger event. If you have plans to travel over the mountain passes, I would stay tuned to this blog in the coming days as I fine tune the timing of this storm. For now, it looks like the party gets rolling Thanksgiving morning.