Tahoe Weather Blog

As is often the case, when the weather models are in wild disagreement, our hopeful forecasts whiff. Our potential for a foot or more of snow last week, faded into the weeds as both storms weakened significantly and only left behind 2-4 inches. Our next hope was for the first week in March. My good friend, Sven, over at Unofficial Mt. Rose  sent me an interesting tidbit from NOAA. That tidbit talks about conditions ripening in that first week of March. That sent me back to the models and lo and behold, the two most accurate models are now focusing on what looks like a decent snow event for around the 6th or 7th of March. In addition, both models are looking for another event about a week later, March 14th. First let's take a look at the 3/6 event; I have posted 3 charts below. In chart one, around the beginning of March, we can clearly see that conditions are finally ripening. We have our blocking ridges of high pressure right where they need to be and a few decent sized storms

Beautiful weather for the weekend will turn into a series of storms heading our way for next week. The pattern change will begin on Tuesday and last through the weekend, at least. These systems will bring in much colder air but the models are in stark disagreement with the amount of moisture headed for the Sierra. We will focus on the more consistent EC model. Below are a series of forecasts for what I would call  chances for moderate snow in the Sierra on Tuesday night, Friday and Saturday. Tuesday Night Friday (2-22) Saturday (2-23) These storms together could bring as much as 1-2 feet of snow to the Sierra and Carson range. They will also bring much cooler temps and much windier conditions. Remember, the EC model is the most aggressive. The GFS, which has been the least reliable model for a couple of years now, is predicting much less precip. Finally I wanted to show you why a chance exists for these conditions and storms to continue into the first week of March

After a month of high pressure dominating our weather, there are indications that changes are coming. However, they are taking their time getting here. In my last post I talked about conditions ripening for a more stormy weather pattern around the first or second week of February. I am tracking a decent sized storm that will make it to our area. However, by the time it gets here, it will have weakened and will probably not bring significant snowfall to Tahoe. That storm which is heading toward the Washington/Oregon coast now, will make it's way into our area Friday and Saturday. As it moves inland, it will severely weaken, however. Here is a look at late Friday: This storm, like the past few will be moisture starved and will probably really kick our winds. It will also usher in a much cooler air mass. Where others see disappointment, I see opportunity. This storm is going to knock down our stubborn ridge of high pressure. Although the ridge will return by Sunday, it will be

Short Term This little storm that has been producing light snow showers has certainly shown more gumption than I thought it had. Having said that, it will only leave a few inches of snow behind in the Sierra and only at the upper elevations. In my last post I talked about a cold front heading our way for Sunday. We are still on track for that storm and I am hoping that we can squeeze 4-8 inches out of it by Monday night. Then high pressure moves in. Here is a look at Wednesday the 30th of January. As you can clearly see, high pressure will be dominating the entire west coast. The storm for Sunday will usher in some much cooler air, but that cooler air will be short lived. For you hockey players that are looking for frozen lakes, the short term does not look great. You may be able to squeeze in some ice time Monday through Thursday of next week ... but that may be pushing it. Long Term Things are definitively changing. In my last post I talked about larger storms that could c

Take this with a grain of salt; the weather pattern will change in about a week from today (1/27). At that time conditions will ripen for a series of storms to come into our area. Here is a look at the first storm, which right now appears to be the best chance for some precipitation. The two images reflect about 12 hours of precip that should be coming our way next weekend. The next chart shows why I am confident this storm will make it down to our area. You can see quite clearly that the storm door will open. This too is a chart for the 27th: So conditions will be favorable next weekend. However I want to qualify this. Right now I do not see a major storm cycle. In fact, I do not see a major storm cycle at any time in the next 2-3 weeks, at least. The storms are not very big and our ridge of high pressure does appear to be in a favorable blocking pattern for the the western 2/3 of the USA for the 2-3 weeks, with the exception of this Sunday. Another qualifier; It does

We have been talking about a dry period now for the last couple of weeks. That is what we are in and it will continue for at least two weeks unless something changes that cannot be foreseen at this time by the weather models. You may remember the beginning of last winter; A powerful ridge of high pressure set up right off the west coast of the US. Well, that is exactly what we have and what we will have into the foreseeable future. Here is a look at the conditions. Notice the giant ridge of High pressure off the coast. That will block any storms from coming into our area. At the same time, our weather is straight out of the north. This pattern will continue until that ridge actually moves. As air revolves clockwise around the ridge, we will continue to get pummeled with cooler than normal temps and deep valley inversions as winds will also be very light. Things will warm up slightly toward the middle of next week. Then the following week we are seeing indications of the ridge br

Happy New Year. As I mentioned in my last post, things were going to dry out and they have. I very strong ridge of high pressure has camped out over Tahoe and brought extreme inversions to the area with very poor air quality in the leeward valley's of the Carson Range. Short Term That should finally mix out as a very cold Low Pressure system is going to drop into our area and bring with it very strong winds, warm air ahead of the front and very cold air behind the front. As the valley's finally mix out of the cold and dirty air tomorrow afternoon, high temps will reach the 50's and possibly 60's as this front pulls up warm air from the south. That will be short lived. Unfortunately this storm is somewhat moisture starved. As the cold front approaches snow levels will reach the valley floors and I expect 6-18 inches in the Sierra above 7,000 feet. Lesser amounts at Lake Level. We are looking at less than an inch of liquid precipitation with few exceptions throughout