Tahoe Weather Blog

The Jet Stream is going to set up right over our area and that will usher in a series of storms that could make April a very storm month. Currently, the more reliable EC weather model is forecasting 8-10 inches of liquid precip for the Carson Range starting on April 1st and lasting 2-3 weeks. Here is the latest monthly control view for total precip ending on April 20th: As can clearly be seen, West of Tahoe is in the 10+ inch range and the Carson range is in the 8-10 inch range. Remember this is liquid precip. We could be looking at a major weather event for the higher elevations of the Sierra and Carson Range. The fun should begin around the 1st of April. Here is a look at the forecast, notice the storm is off the coast and the leading edge is pulling in precip for the entire state of California. The only downside to this pattern is snow levels will be very high. How high? Right now it looks like 8,000 feet and up. Of course that could change as could the entire weather pa

We are still looking at a precip event for Wednesday and Wednesday night but not nearly what I had hoped for last week. These storms are moving in from the west and shifting north before they come ashore. Although this storm has a good moisture tap, it just moves too far north too fast. Here is a look at midday on Wednesday: Here is the precip total forecast: As you can see, the models have backed off a major event. We are looking in the 6-12 inch range for the Sierra North and West of Tahoe and 4-8 inches for the Carson Range with more to the north of the lake. Look for pretty high winds to accompany this storm as well, especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Looking ahead, the more dependable European model is forecasting 6-8 inches of liquid precip within the next 30 days with no focus on a major storm as of yet. I will keep any eye out and report accordingly. Stay Tuned ...

Our very mild weather will slowly cool each day until next Wednesday/Thursday. Then things get really interesting. A very large and impressive storm is headed our way and could bring as much as 4 inches of liquid precip to the Western Crest of Lake Tahoe. It will tap into very warm moist air and elevations on this one could be a little tricky. For Mt. Rose, expect all snow. Preliminary indications, however, are 7,000-7,500 feet. Here is a look at next Thursday, March 21st: This storm comes in from the west and moves North as it reaches land. This could be a bullseye on Tahoe and could bring a major weather event. Being a week off, we will have to wait and see, but this comes from the much more reliable European Model (ECMWF). Here is a look at the precip forecast for this storm, pretty impressive for late March: This storm is going to stick around for a while and should send several waves of precip our way. It will finally exit the scene as another storm pushes it out. H

As is often the case, when the weather models are in wild disagreement, our hopeful forecasts whiff. Our potential for a foot or more of snow last week, faded into the weeds as both storms weakened significantly and only left behind 2-4 inches. Our next hope was for the first week in March. My good friend, Sven, over at Unofficial Mt. Rose  sent me an interesting tidbit from NOAA. That tidbit talks about conditions ripening in that first week of March. That sent me back to the models and lo and behold, the two most accurate models are now focusing on what looks like a decent snow event for around the 6th or 7th of March. In addition, both models are looking for another event about a week later, March 14th. First let's take a look at the 3/6 event; I have posted 3 charts below. In chart one, around the beginning of March, we can clearly see that conditions are finally ripening. We have our blocking ridges of high pressure right where they need to be and a few decent sized storms

Beautiful weather for the weekend will turn into a series of storms heading our way for next week. The pattern change will begin on Tuesday and last through the weekend, at least. These systems will bring in much colder air but the models are in stark disagreement with the amount of moisture headed for the Sierra. We will focus on the more consistent EC model. Below are a series of forecasts for what I would call  chances for moderate snow in the Sierra on Tuesday night, Friday and Saturday. Tuesday Night Friday (2-22) Saturday (2-23) These storms together could bring as much as 1-2 feet of snow to the Sierra and Carson range. They will also bring much cooler temps and much windier conditions. Remember, the EC model is the most aggressive. The GFS, which has been the least reliable model for a couple of years now, is predicting much less precip. Finally I wanted to show you why a chance exists for these conditions and storms to continue into the first week of March

After a month of high pressure dominating our weather, there are indications that changes are coming. However, they are taking their time getting here. In my last post I talked about conditions ripening for a more stormy weather pattern around the first or second week of February. I am tracking a decent sized storm that will make it to our area. However, by the time it gets here, it will have weakened and will probably not bring significant snowfall to Tahoe. That storm which is heading toward the Washington/Oregon coast now, will make it's way into our area Friday and Saturday. As it moves inland, it will severely weaken, however. Here is a look at late Friday: This storm, like the past few will be moisture starved and will probably really kick our winds. It will also usher in a much cooler air mass. Where others see disappointment, I see opportunity. This storm is going to knock down our stubborn ridge of high pressure. Although the ridge will return by Sunday, it will be

Short Term This little storm that has been producing light snow showers has certainly shown more gumption than I thought it had. Having said that, it will only leave a few inches of snow behind in the Sierra and only at the upper elevations. In my last post I talked about a cold front heading our way for Sunday. We are still on track for that storm and I am hoping that we can squeeze 4-8 inches out of it by Monday night. Then high pressure moves in. Here is a look at Wednesday the 30th of January. As you can clearly see, high pressure will be dominating the entire west coast. The storm for Sunday will usher in some much cooler air, but that cooler air will be short lived. For you hockey players that are looking for frozen lakes, the short term does not look great. You may be able to squeeze in some ice time Monday through Thursday of next week ... but that may be pushing it. Long Term Things are definitively changing. In my last post I talked about larger storms that could c