Tahoe Weather Blog

  A picture is worth a thousand words, high pressure is in complete control of our weather. This will continue into the first week of March.  That first week of March should usher in a pattern change as we are tracking several storms for late in the first week of March, including this one which is forecast for the 5th of March: We will keep an eye on this developing pattern change and report accordingly. Stay Tuned ...

Our weather pattern remains active but we are not seeing any big storms in the near future. We are tracking two fast moving, weak storms that are on tap for Monday and Thursday of next week. Combined, these storm may produce 6-12 inches of snow for Mt. Rose. They will be on the colder side and temperatures will remain around average and at times below average over the next several days. Here is the forecast for Monday at 10:00am: This storm will probably be mostly shadowed out for the Carson Range but we could see a few inches of snow for Mt. Rose on Monday morning. Then later in the week, around Thursday a better storm comes in. Currently this storm is forecast to rapidly move through our area. We believe it could leave 6 inches on the Tahoe slopes. Not much more to talk about as these short waves continue to come into the area keeping our pattern very active, however conditions are not yet ripe for a big one. Stay Tuned ...

 We are tracking 4 storms starting late next Thursday, February 11th. Between now and then, expect above average temperatures. Then everything changes. The weather models are mostly in agreement about this next storm series so despite it still being 5+ days out, we are very confident. Here is a look at the forecast for Thursday @ 10pm: Notice the complete lack of our persistent high pressure ridge. Next storm comes in late Saturday, February 13th. This one has some tremendous potential: Next storm comes in the following Monday (February 15th), about midday. Notice the moisture tail showing a true Pineapple Express event: The next storm is forecast to come in very late on the 17th of February: This next storm series should produce near consistent snowfall for over a week. Right now snow elevations look to be above 6,000 feet, but as we near these storms we will get a better idea. My gut tells me they will be higher with the sub-tropical moisture that all these storms are tapping into. W

 We have a small system coming through on Tuesday. That will be the last storm in the current storm cycle. After Tuesday look for above average temperatures for at least the next 7-10 days. Here is a look at the forecast for Tuesday around 10:00am: Notice the massive ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific. That ridge will begin to dominate our weather for at least a week and probably more. This last storm will bring 4-8 inches to the Carson Range and other Tahoe resorts. Stay Tuned ...

 Ma Nature is showing off! Our current massive storm has shifted north again and should add a least a couple more feet of snow to the Carson Range, which has already seen over 4 feet. The next storm comes in late on Monday and is taking dead aim at Tahoe: I would expect that we will pick up another 12-24 inches from this next storm. That should bring the total amount of snow for the week to around 100 inches for Mt. Rose. That should open all remaining terrain. However, this storm cycle is over after Tuesday. High Pressure will dominate our weather and bring much warmer than average temps to the area. Notice the warm air, in this next chart, extending all the way into BC: This is the forecast from the GFS weather model, the EC model is saying we will NOT get that warm. The next storm cycle looks to start around the 13th of February. Stay Tuned ...

 This is a very typical La Nina pattern. La Nina can spin up some large storms but there are usually far fewer storms in a La Nina year. We have two storms that the models have consolidated on. They are backing off historic snowfall amounts. From Kirkwood to Mammoth will see the most snow. In Tahoe, we will get our fair share, but not what we were predicting even a few days ago. The first storm is just making landfall in Northern California now. This is the larger of the two storms. It will begin to affect our area about 10:00 tonight, Tuesday January 26th. It will have two peaks, tomorrow at around 4:00am: Then the next peak will be Thursday around 10:00am: The second storm we are tracking, and for now what appears to be the final storm in this series, will arrive on Monday morning and last for about 12 hours as it weakens: Combined these two storms will produce in neighborhood of 4-8 feet, with the Carson range getting around 4 feet as we are seeing some shadowing occurring. You can

Before we get into the weather forecast, please visit  Unofficial Mt Rose , it could save your life. If you are thinking about heading into the back country, please read Sven's post as dangerous Avalanche conditions are setting up.  If you have been reading our posts, then you are well aware that the models converged on an epic snowfall for the Tahoe area. We are tracking large storms as far out as 2 weeks. Here is the latest precip forecast for the next 2 weeks: All resorts in Tahoe should receive between 8-15 feet of snow depending on elevation and location. The chart above is calling for the Carson Range to pick up around a foot of liquid precip. With these storms being a bit on the colder side, we believe in the next 2 weeks Mt. Rose could see as much as 12 feet of snow. With the snowpack down below 50% this will be a great help. In addition, at the present time, we are seeing the storm door remaining wide open. Here is the forecast for February 9th, notice the ridge of high pr