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Pattern Slowly Changing

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After weeks of beautiful, warm and stable weather, we are finally seeing the beginning of a pattern change. We talked about our persistent ridge of high pressure being shoved out to sea which could open a storm door. The models are now starting to agree with us. First things first: Say goodbye to the warm weather as a cold front will begin to move down the coast on Sunday night. That will lead to a slider like system on tap for late Monday and Tuesday. This storm could have some potential as the GFS model is much more aggressive than the more reliable ECMWF. In any event Tuesday is the day when we finally see some snow in the Sierra. As can clearly be seen by the above chart, the Central Sierra will do much better with this storm. However, what can also be seen is a weakening ridge of high pressure. That ridge will move back into a blocking position but around the 15th, it will be shoved back out to sea which will open the storm door for what should be several days of snow in the Tahoe...
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La Nina is Quickly Dying

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The dissipation of cooler waters along the Equatorial Pacific (La Nina) is happening quicker than expected. As we move into a neutral ENSO, look for a change in the pattern. Possibly around the last week in February, hopefully sooner. This particular La Nina delivered only a single impressive storm cycle, and thank goodness it did! So waving goodbye to La Nina is cause for celebration. A neutral ENSO should allow the storm machine to start cranking and knock our persistent ridge of high pressure out of its current position off the West Coast of the USA. We are starting to see what could amount to a change in the pattern, although currently we are not seeing any major storms for the next 2 weeks at least. Here is a look at the forecast for 9th of February. A cold front drops down but has no moisture tap. Then around the 14th we are seeing the Ridge get shoved West, which could open the storm door for Tahoe, finally! Again, not seeing any major storms but what we are seeing is the possib...
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When Will it Snow Again?

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As La Nina continues to deepen, so does our dry weather. Generally, we only write columns to talk about future weather pattern changes. However, I noticed a number of forecasters were predicting a return to winter weather next weekend. We are not seeing that. In fact as the Polar Vortex digs deep into the central part of the country, our weather will be above seasonal averages for the most part with high pressure sitting off the coast and blocking everything. Lake Tahoe is west of Los Angeles. That helps a lot when these deep high pressure systems dominate the country, we are outside their influence of bitter cold air. However, we are seeing what should amount to a pattern change. That is the good news. The bad news is that this pattern change is still a few weeks out. As our persistent ridge of high pressure begins to break down, expect things to change. That appears to be occurring around the 30th of January. Of course, predicting weather 2 weeks out comes with risk. We will keep an ...
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Four Days of Storms Starts Tomorrow, Then Extended Dry Period

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These systems broke about as bad as possible. Starting with rain at 10,000 feet most of New Years Eve and even New Years day. That put a dent in the snow pack of Mt. Rose. We have several other systems waiting to come in. The snow levels will vary with these systems as well. Saturday January 3rd Storm moves in early Saturday morning. Snow levels look to be around 7,000-7,500. However, there is a large moisture element coming from the south and you can clearly see on this graphic. This is the dynamic we had earlier in the week. For now this should be all snow for Mt. Rose. However, look for some rain shadowing by the Sierra. Sunday January 4th This is our best chance for significant snow. Snow levels should fall to around 6,000. There is still a warm moisture connection, but the cold front has dropped down into the area. Monday January 5th Another storm moves in. NWS calling for the possibility of snow levels falling to the valley floor. However the EC is showing a strong rain shadow ef...
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Storms start on New Years day and Continue for Ten Days

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We just got the latest ECMWF model run and it looks good. As usual, not all news is good news. The storms are increasing in intensity and frequency, that is the good news. However, they will start out very warm, with snow levels around 8,500-9,000 feet ... or maybe even higher. Here is what we are seeing: New Years Day 2026 Very warm storm for New Years with snow levels above most Tahoe ski resorts. A good deal of the precip will be in the Central Sierra. We do not see a major amount for Tahoe, which is good because the snow levels will be around 9,000 feet. Notice to the west the very cold air, that will play into the next, strong storm. Saturday January 3rd, 2026 This is a much colder and stronger storm. Snow levels will plummet to below 6,000 feet so it will be all snow for all Tahoe resorts at all elevations; Sunday January 4th, 2026 This storm continues with a reenforcing storm just off shore. Snow levels could approach the valley floor, however there will be a rain shadow, so not...
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Two Storms to Kickoff the New Year

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This past storm cycle was an underachiever. Usually, when the models go big, the storms cannot produce. In this case we tallied around 5 feet, which was slightly less than what the models were predicting. Of course the models learn the error of their ways. We have a couple storms that will setup very similar to this last pattern; colliding air masses from the North and South. However, this time the models have tempered down their prediction. Here is what we are seeing; Saturday 1/3 This storm really begins lat on the first. It looks like next Saturday could be a very stormy day. Snow levels could be as high as 7,500 feet. Wednesday 1/7 This is a ways out but is following a similar pattern and another warm storm. What we are seeing for precip in the next 2 weeks: If this holds true, Mt. Rose could be looking at another 3-5 feet. Let's hope they are under projecting this time! Stay Tuned ...
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Pattern Changed, Now Comes the Big Storms

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Pretty much everybody has noticed that we went from stable high pressure to very unstable low pressure with 40 mph straight line winds and gusts exceeding 80 in the leeward foothills. Sitting just offshore is the first of several large and very wet storms poised to bury the Tahoe area. The first storm is literally just moving in now (16:00 - Sunday): This storm is going to stall out and bring heavy snow above 7,000 feet. We believe this will be all snow for Mt. Rose at all elevations. This will last through tomorrow late afternoon. Then we will get a slight break in the weather before a much larger storm pounds Tahoe starting late Tuesday night and lasting through the 26th. The heaviest snow will be Christmas day and could drop all the way to the valley floor. Suffice it to say this will be all snow for all Tahoe ski areas. By the time it tappers off we are looking at around 4-8 feet of snow for the Carson Range. Some areas west of Lake Tahoe could see double that amount. This is far l...
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