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When Will it Snow Again? Season Snowfall Forecast

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The question of the month is when will snow return to Lake Tahoe? Depending on your patience, this is either good or bad news; Currently high pressure is in complete control of the entire West Coast: Unfortunately, we see this blocking high moving only slightly. What does that mean? It means in the short term there is no significant precip coming to Tahoe. We do not predict man made snow, for that I suggest you go over to  Unofficial Rose . You can get the true heartbeat of the mountain there as well. We just due natural weather here. Now, if you are patient, we see a pattern shift begin around the 29th of November. Again this is still 9 days out, but our two most reliable models are forecasting this pattern change. Here is the forecast for Monday November 29th: This is the outer ring of a massive storm that is centered off the coast of Central BC. Between now and the 29th, if that storm moves a bit south we could see major precipitation. As it is, we should get a pretty decent shot of

Next Storm of Consequence Pushes in Monday Night

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What we are seeing today (11/6) is the leading edge of a larger storm. This leading edge could produce a few inches of snow for the Carson Range and Sierra. However a better storm is coming for Monday night: Later Monday evening the main front will push in. It has a decent moisture tap and should start out as all snow for Tahoe Resorts. However, as the front pushes through, it will pick up warmer air and snow levels will climb to around 7,000 or 8,000 feet. So this should be all snow for Mount Rose. How much snow? That is the question. The GFS weather model is much more bullish than the ECMWF and is calling for 1-2 feet for the Carson Range. The EC is calling for under a foot of snow. Let's hope for an over producer, because behind this front our ridge of high pressure will move into a blocking position. We do not see precipitation after this storm until around the 20th of November. Of course all that can change, because who's in charge? Not Us. Stay Tuned ...  

Several Glancing Blows Before a Real Storm Pushes In

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 We are in a stormy pattern with several storms headed our way. These are not like the last storm in that they do not carry the precipitation potential. We are looking at around 6 inches of snow for Mt. Rose between now and the 8th of November. Then a potentially larger storm comes in that could deliver a foot of snow or more. Our ridge of high pressure will need to flatten a bit prior to any storms making into Tahoe. So, for the next week the storms will just deliver us a glancing blow and for the most part, push north. That is not at all uncommon for this time of year. Our best chance of precip this week is very early Thursday (11/4) morning: The models have the leeward valleys being completed shadowed from precip, but the Carson Range could see a few inches, six at the most. Then around the 7th of November, our ridge flattens out which will allow storms to dip further south. How much is still up in the air: We expect several waves of precip to hit the Carson Range and possibly bring

Most October Precipitation in 20 Years, Just Off the Coast

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 ... And like that, Mother Nature flips a switch and we go from some of our driest weather in some time to some of our wettest weather in October, ever! There is a massive storm that is going wreak havoc on the northern half of California and Western Nevada. This storm is going to produce copious amounts of precipitation. That precip will spill over into the leeward valleys of Reno and Carson City and deliver some much needed rain. Maybe too much as flash flood warnings and watches are out for the entire area. This storm will pull up very warm air and tap into sub-tropical moisture. I believe the modern acronym is that we are about to experience an AR event (atmospheric river). Very unusual for October. Here is what the EC see's in the way of timing.  Friday October 22nd Noon : This is the weakest of the waves of moisture heading our way. There will be a window of on again off again precip throughout tomorrow (10/23), then very early Sunday the big stuff comes in: Sunday October 24

Weak Storms Are Paving the Way For Much Stronger Storms

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 Because we cannot rely on Mother Nature, we are tracking several very strong storms especially for this time of year. This will greatly aid in coming out of the current drought as Ma Nature cranks up her storm machine. The current storm will wind down Tuesday Night / Wednesday Morning (10/19 - 10/20). We do not expect much precipitation with this storm. Any snow will be in the upper elevations above 7,000 feet. Those levels, as always, will drop as the get on the backside of the front. This will bring beneficial moisture up and down the west coast. Notice the blob out at sea. That is going to spin into a stronger storm. The leading edge will pull up some very warm and moist air. This looks much more like a January weather pattern than October. But after the consistent record highs, many are probably relieved that winter will indeed return.  The leading edge of this major storm will be Sunday, late morning (10/24). As this storm continues to spin it will strengthen and pull up more moi

Several Fronts to Slide Down Eastern Sierra and Bring Much Cooler Temps and Light Mountain Snow

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The storms are getting much closer as we transition into our fall pattern and approach our rainy season. We have a couple of cold fronts that will slide down the Eastern Sierra and bring very cool temperatures starting Wednesday. A re-enforcing cold front will them come down early next week and bring our temperatures 15-20 degrees below average. Here is a look at next Monday (October 11): If you live in the mountains, expect winter like conditions as far as winds and temperatures are concerned. We do not see any major snowfall out of either of these storms, but it is still early October. We are cranking the numbers for the potential this winter and will have our season forecast in the next week or two. Stay Tuned ...

End of 100 Degree Days; Smoke to Subside; La Nina Winter

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We have a series of dry cold fronts that will be coming through our area in the next week or so. These will create much cooler temperatures along with very windy conditions. The winds will help to alleviate much of the smoke and we could even see several clear days. We believe the 100 degree days (which we had a record number of) are over until next year. Ma Nature is very fickle to say the least as we could see frost in some locations in the coming days. As Mother Nature continues her unforgiving forest management, we are not seeing any beneficial rains in the near future. However, we are seeing a gradual weather pattern change. Needless to say, we are hoping for an early rainy season. Although we are not ready to do our winter snowfall prediction, which last year was exactly what we forecast (pure luck), we are seeing a significant chance for a La Nina pattern to develop and stay with us for the most of the winter. What does that mean? Honestly, not much. After an incredibly dry year