Tahoe Weather Blog

Winter is approaching, and it's time for my annual Lake Tahoe ski-season snowfall prediction. With an exceptionally strong El Niño developing in the Pacific, I'm optimistic that Tahoe's mountain resorts could enjoy an above-average winter. My prediction for Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe: 120% of normal snowfall, or approximately 420 inches. A Super El Niño Is Taking Shape Pacific Ocean temperatures have climbed to extraordinary levels, with recent Niño 3.4 readings near +3.3°C. Forecast models suggest this El Niño could rank among the strongest on record. Historically, powerful El Niño events can energize the Pacific storm track, bringing significant precipitation into California and the Sierra Nevada. However, the location of that storm track is critical. Southern California can receive tremendous rainfall while the northern Sierra sees comparatively modest snowfall. What History Tells Us Looking at modeled snowfall during four strong El Niño winters, Mt. Rose experienced dramaticall...

As the year moves on, the storms get weaker. However, we have what appears to be a couple of moderate to strong storms for this time of year. These storms will usher in much cooler weather into the foreseeable future. This will be a weekend storm that starts on Friday and should clear out on Sunday: Friday April 10 Storm moves onto the coastal area. Notice the cold air to the North and West. Early Saturday April 11 This is the peak of the storm. There is a moisture connection to the south so snow levels will be a bit tricky. This should be all snow for Mt. Rose. Sunday Afternoon April 12 Storm is winding down and cold air moves in. After this storm clears out, cool air moves in and we will see a very noticeable difference. In addition, another storm is setting up for next week: Friday April 17 Looking at the next couple of weeks of forecasted precipitation shows a potential for 2-5 feet of snow for the Carson Range with more on the West Shore of the lake above 7,500. Did we really thin...

It has been over a month since our last post. By no coincidence, it has been over a month since our last storm. This has been a very unusual winter. Incredibly dry for most of the west and some areas saw record breaking lack of precipitation. This will NOT repeat next year, I will get to that shortly. We have a weak system coming in from the west that will be reinforced with a stronger system from north. We are looking at a chance for up to a foot of snow for the Carson Range and much more on the other side of Lake Tahoe, perhaps 2-3 feet. Unfortunately, I would be very surprised if we top out at 6 inches. Perhaps we could all go wash our cars? The best chance for precip comes in on Wednesday evening: Precip totals: It's not much but we will take what we can get these last few weeks of the season. I mentioned high confidence that this will not repeat next year. Why? One word: Godzilla. Godzilla is not a meteorological term. It is short for a Godzilla or Super El Nino. Models are pr...

We have series of low pressure systems off the West Coast. They are somewhat stalled but are slowly moving into BC. That will pull very warm air up to the Tahoe area. With that warm air will be lots of moisture. That will create an AR event for Tahoe, although not what we originally thought. That event will also have snow levels hovering around 9,000 feet. Here is a look at Monday (2/23) afternoon: Notice a couple of things. First the stream of moisture coming up from the Tropics. Second, the line of warm and cold air (blue and red lines). Now take a look at late Tuesday evening: Notice how far north the warm air has moved. Combine that with warm, moist air from the tropics and you have very high snow levels for the Sierra. Then high pressure moves in.  It stays well above seasonal average until the first week in March, when another pattern change could develop. Stay Tuned ...

After somewhere between 3-5 feet for the Sierra, the sun is shining in the leeward valley. Do not let that fool you, we are just getting started. The next wave moves in late tonight through tomorrow and then the biggest wave is on tap for this weekend. After that last storm, which is really several storms combined, we see an extended warm and dry period. Here is the forecast: Thursday 2/19 Not as wet as the first wave but still should produce significant moisture. Sunday 2/22 morning These 3 storms are going to converge right over Tahoe ... Tuesday 2/24 Classic AR event (Atmospheric River). We are right on the line between warm and cold air. Following this storm a cold front will move down but will clear out quickly giving way to warm dry air. Up on Mt. Rose we are looking at an additional 3-5 feet ... at least. If you want to see a huge mess, we believe there will be fairly significant rain for the leeward valleys on top of 8-24 inches of snow that has already fallen. Stay Tuned ...

As our persistent ridge gets moved out in the Pacific, the storm door is wide open. With La Nina in the rearview mirror, expect more frequent and weaker storms. In the end, expect more snow in the Sierra. Starting next Sunday (2/15), we will see a series of storms over the next 10 days. Here is a look at the forecast moving forward: Monday 2/16 Look how far out to see our high pressure ridge has moved. That will allows the storms to move down the coast and tap into sub tropical moisture. Tuesday 2/17 This one is all snow for all Tahoe Resorts as the cold front moves down. Weak moisture tap but the storm does stall somewhat. Thursday 2/19 Another smaller storm, but cold should bring good POW to the Sierra. Friday 2/20 Ridge of high pressure is expanding, but only temporarily.  Sunday 2/22 Ridge shoved back, should allow larger storms to come in. Wednesday 2/25 Obviously, this is a ways out, but could be a major Sierra blizzard with a great combination of cold air and warm moist air....