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As High Pressure Breaks Down, Expect the Storm Machine to get Cranking

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What a beautiful stretch of weather to officially end summer/fall. Mt. Rose had just the right combination of man made and natural snow to open as well. That beautiful weather is about to change. The Pacific Storm machine has been cranking out storm after storm. However a strong ridge of high pressure has moved those storms to the north. That ridge is breaking down and that will open the storm door. The fun starts Friday and should continue, on and off, for at least a week. Here is what we are seeing: Midday Friday (11/13) This is a warmer storm with a nice moisture tail. I expect all snow for Mt. Rose. It will start above lake level, probably around 7,500 but quickly fall to below lake level for other Tahoe resorts. Monday Morning (11/16) Much colder storm, could bring snow to the valley floor. Not as impressive moisture profile, however. Wednesday (11/18) This storm could have some potential when the cold hits the warm with a big moisture tap. The only think I do not like is these st...
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Stormy Weather for the Next Week

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We talked about this last post. We have a low pressure system that will move south off the coast of BC all the way down to California. It will join with another low that has a moisture tap from the south, and will create the chance for a decent storm for both the Central and Northern Sierra above 7,000 feet. I believe Mammoth will receive around a foot of snow while Mt. Rose and other Northern Sierra resorts will be in the 6-12 inch range. This storm does have a really good moisture tap and the cool air from the northern front means all snow for Mt. Rose. Here is the timing: We call this the set up. It shows the low pressure system to the north with cool air and the low pressure system to the south with warm moist air. This combination in December would be a huge weather event. However, it is just the beginning of November. These 2 fronts will collide and the California Sierra will be the big winner: Sunday 11/1 @ 5am Unfortunately, this is a fast moving storm and precip will be limite...
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Robust Beginning to Winter

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If you are looking for the seasonal forecast, go here:  Seasonal Forecast I suspect that Mt. Rose will be opening around the first of November. This recent series of storms certainly has helped their snow making. In recent years that meant Lake View to the bottom. They have certainly invested heavily in snow making equipment. With that said, will Ma Nature help out? It looks like yes. We are tracking a pretty wet storm for around the first of November. Wet and warm. That could be a problem as right now snow levels look to be high. We are still 8 days out for this one, however. If we want to go fantasy forecast, we are tracking another wet storm for around the 7th of November. This one is born in the north and should bring all snow to Mt. Rose. Of course that is 15 days out and could only graze us to the north. Remember, El Nino usually brings smaller, more frequent and warmer storms. This super El Nino could well favor the Southern and Central Sierra. What we are all hoping for is ...
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Tahoe Winter 2026–27: A Super El Niño and My Mt. Rose Snowfall Prediction

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Winter is approaching, and it's time for my annual Lake Tahoe ski-season snowfall prediction. With an exceptionally strong El Niño developing in the Pacific, I'm optimistic that Tahoe's mountain resorts could enjoy an above-average winter. My prediction for Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe: 120% of normal snowfall, or approximately 420 inches. A Super El Niño Is Taking Shape Pacific Ocean temperatures have climbed to extraordinary levels, with recent Niño 3.4 readings near +3.3°C. Forecast models suggest this El Niño could rank among the strongest on record. Historically, powerful El Niño events can energize the Pacific storm track, bringing significant precipitation into California and the Sierra Nevada. However, the location of that storm track is critical. Southern California can receive tremendous rainfall while the northern Sierra sees comparatively modest snowfall. What History Tells Us Looking at modeled snowfall during four strong El Niño winters, Mt. Rose experienced dramaticall...
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Strong Spring Storm Coming to a Mountain Near You

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As the year moves on, the storms get weaker. However, we have what appears to be a couple of moderate to strong storms for this time of year. These storms will usher in much cooler weather into the foreseeable future. This will be a weekend storm that starts on Friday and should clear out on Sunday: Friday April 10 Storm moves onto the coastal area. Notice the cold air to the North and West. Early Saturday April 11 This is the peak of the storm. There is a moisture connection to the south so snow levels will be a bit tricky. This should be all snow for Mt. Rose. Sunday Afternoon April 12 Storm is winding down and cold air moves in. After this storm clears out, cool air moves in and we will see a very noticeable difference. In addition, another storm is setting up for next week: Friday April 17 Looking at the next couple of weeks of forecasted precipitation shows a potential for 2-5 feet of snow for the Carson Range with more on the West Shore of the lake above 7,500. Did we really thin...
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Weak System Will Bring Snow to Sierra; Godzilla El Nino?

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It has been over a month since our last post. By no coincidence, it has been over a month since our last storm. This has been a very unusual winter. Incredibly dry for most of the west and some areas saw record breaking lack of precipitation. This will NOT repeat next year, I will get to that shortly. We have a weak system coming in from the west that will be reinforced with a stronger system from north. We are looking at a chance for up to a foot of snow for the Carson Range and much more on the other side of Lake Tahoe, perhaps 2-3 feet. Unfortunately, I would be very surprised if we top out at 6 inches. Perhaps we could all go wash our cars? The best chance for precip comes in on Wednesday evening: Precip totals: It's not much but we will take what we can get these last few weeks of the season. I mentioned high confidence that this will not repeat next year. Why? One word: Godzilla. Godzilla is not a meteorological term. It is short for a Godzilla or Super El Nino. Models are pr...
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Big Warm Up Starts Monday

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We have series of low pressure systems off the West Coast. They are somewhat stalled but are slowly moving into BC. That will pull very warm air up to the Tahoe area. With that warm air will be lots of moisture. That will create an AR event for Tahoe, although not what we originally thought. That event will also have snow levels hovering around 9,000 feet. Here is a look at Monday (2/23) afternoon: Notice a couple of things. First the stream of moisture coming up from the Tropics. Second, the line of warm and cold air (blue and red lines). Now take a look at late Tuesday evening: Notice how far north the warm air has moved. Combine that with warm, moist air from the tropics and you have very high snow levels for the Sierra. Then high pressure moves in.  It stays well above seasonal average until the first week in March, when another pattern change could develop. Stay Tuned ...
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