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Showing posts from 2021

High Pressure to Block Large Storms

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After a record breaking December, the models are backing off a major weather event next week. A ridge of high pressure is the culprit. We thought that ridge would be moved out, obviously it had other ideas.  Here is the forecast for late on Tuesday January 4th. Notice the ridge of high pressure to the south, that will close the storm door for the Tahoe area: We are looking at 6-12 inches of snow for Mt. Rose Tuesday into Wednesday.  We are seeing much warmer temperatures with high's in the 50's in some valley locations. By the 6th of January, I would expect to see temperature inversions in place as well. This pattern will start around the 6th and should last for at least a week. Stay Tuned ...

Some Clearing Expected Ahead of Massive Storm

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It turns out that Ma Nature does NOT have that great a sense of humor. Sure she sent a snow storm to the Global Warming Summit a few years back, which made it much more difficult for the planet saviors to land their private jets. Imagine the problems with Limos and Tire Chains? Those poor billionaires! I received an email from a person that the ski resorts would soon be suing the oil companies for lack of snow. I simply replied back that therapy must not be working, perhaps medication would be more effective for his condition. Mt. Rose has received over 200 inches of snow in the last 2 weeks and it is still snowing! That is how nature works. In the span of a few weeks we can catch up to our averages. Remember there is no normal when it comes to weather or even climate. Having said all of that, we are seeing an end to this latest storm cycle approaching: Here is the forecast for late Thursday.  We believe the snows will stop by Wednesday morning as this ridge creeps east and provides a

Snow Through Monday, Then a Break ... Then a Possible Massive Storm

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Our current pattern will continue. We are currently approaching 4 feet of snow and expect another 3-5 feet by Monday in the Carson Range. The models are then predicting a break as high pressure moves in starting Tuesday (12/28) and lasting through the 2nd of January. Then things change again. What looks to be a massive storm drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and shoves the ridge back to 160W and opens the door for what could be a major storm. Now things could change, but this is what the 2 most reliable weather models are predicting for January 3rd: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all, get out and enjoy the perfect mid-winter conditions all around Tahoe.  For updated status of Mt. Rose, see my friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose. Stay Tuned ...

10 More Feet of Snow For Carson Range?

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We are on the eve of an extremely active weather pattern for all of the Tahoe area. In fact, the GFS weather model is predicting in the neighborhood of 10 additional feet of snow for the Carson Range. The ECMWF is talking 8-10 feet. Currently, we have the perfect conditions setting up for a major weather event. Notice the ridge of high pressure way out at 160w. That opens a door for storms to come in from both the north and the south.  Things will get rolling late Tuesday or Early Wednesday morning. That is a bit later than we originally thought (in our last post). However, this storm cycle will last through the year. Here is a look at the forecast for Wednesday Evening (12/22): We should see heavy to moderate mountain snow, with elevations starting just above lake level (that is our best guess). By the time Friday evening (Christmas Eve) rolls around: This wave is much cooler and will spill over into the leeward valleys with accumulating snow. In the mountains, very heavy snow. We bel

Storms Start Up Again Monday

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After 10 feet of snow in the Carson Range and perhaps 20 feet on the Western Crest, we are in for a 3 day break. Then ... Deja Vu all over again. Here is the forecast for Monday night: This is a very interesting storm. It is forecast to hang off the coast for a period of 4 days. Then it will move north and then move back south again. It has a sub-tropical moisture tap and should bring an additional 4-6 feet of snow to the Carson Range next week. Notice the ridge of high pressure way out at sea. That is going to keep the storm door open. After this storm finally moves out, the ridge is so far west and north that we are forecasting a couple of storms slamming into each other shortly after Christmas. One storm will come from the north the other from the south: This is a bit too far off to predict what effect it will have on Tahoe, but needless to say, this could bring in another major weather event. The GFS model has already picked up on these series of events. We are seeing high pressure

Stormy Pattern to Continue Through Christmas (at least)

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This latest storm which is actually located just off the coast in Northern Washington, continues to pummel the Sierra. Right now it looks like this storm will clear out sometime Tuesday afternoon. But there is another storm right on its heels. Here is a look at forecast for early Thursday (12/16): This is a faster moving storm but should remain cold and should produce all snow for all Tahoe ski resorts. Between Friday and Tuesday (12/21) we will see several short waves bring additional snow to the area. Then, because Ma Nature hates when forecasters make generalizations, like it is going to be a dry winter because of La Nina (not us), she has decided to bring a storm in from the South: Our ridge of high pressure has pushed to 160W which should keep the storm door open at the time of year when the storms are the strongest. Here is the precip forecast for the next 10 days. Looks like the entire Sierra is in line for 8-10 feet of additional snowfall, while the western crest could be looki

Stormy Pattern to Continue with Much Stronger Storms

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If we can learn a lesson about how Mother Nature works, it is that unusual weather is an oxymoron, while at the same time it is the only thing "normal". We avoid using the word normal, because there is nothing normal about weather. That is why we have averages. Enough philosophy. We have moved from a very warm dry pattern into a very cool wet pattern, seemingly overnight. We see no end in sight to this pattern. The next storm comes in early tomorrow and it will be even cooler: The EC model is more bullish on this next storm. Then the big storm comes in early on Sunday (12/12) morning. It will receive several re-enforcing shots of cold air and will tap into a sub-tropical moisture stream.  It will be giving us moderate to heavy precip for around 60 hours as here is the forecast for Tuesday (12/14) morning: You can see what happens when that ridge of high pressure is shoved west to around 150-155. A storm door is opened right to our front step. We believe that after this potent

Goodbye 60's, Hello Snow

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 If you have been following this blog, we have been tracking a weather pattern change for quite some time now. The models are converging and it looks like 4 separate storms are poised to hit Tahoe. Not any one of these storms is gigantic, but the sum of these storms should open a ton of terrain in the Tahoe area. The first storm is one we elected to ignore and it has overachieved. It will add 2-4 inches to Mt. Rose which is a welcome sight.  More importantly it will clear the way for the slider system that comes in Thursday night. This system is going to be accompanied by some very cold air. We will drop 30 degrees and mountain highs on Friday will be in the teens. In addition, expect 2-6 inches of snow for the leeward valleys and perhaps 6-8 inches of snow for Mt. Rose. Notice the ridge getting shoved west. That opens a real storm door and a week from today (Monday Dec. 13) we will see decent storm with low snow levels come into Tahoe. GFS is much more bullish but both it and the EC m

High Pressure Remains in Control, but for How Long?

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High Pressure remains in control. However, we are expecting a major pattern change to take shape about mid-week. We have been tracking this change for quite some time, and finally, it is knocking on the door. If you have enjoyed the beautiful late November early December weather ... it may be quite some time before we see 60's again. Here is our current pattern with 2 blocking highs and storms squeezing through into Northern Washington / Southern BC. All of this is going to change. Around Wednesday afternoon a major cold front will begin to move into the area. Our temps will go from 60's down to low 40's in a hurry. Best of all, the inversions which have been in place for some time will be pushed out allowing much cooler air for the mountains and the snowmaking machines. An eastern slider event will push down the leeward side of the Sierra and could bring some much needed snow. Probably no more than 6 inches, but we will take it. This cold front will change everything as ou

Stubborn Ridge of High Pressure Not Budging

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We had hoped this latest storm would shove our ridge of high pressure around a bit more; alas that is not the case. We are in a very stubborn weather pattern with little to no chance of precipitation for the next 1-2 weeks. Fear not, as the storms get stronger, they should be able to push that ridge further to the west and open a storm door. The next chance of that is around the 6th of December: Our confidence is pretty low for any sort of game changing event. This is the ECMWF model, which is the more reliable model, but other models are not in agreement. The other pattern shift we are looking at is around the 12th of December. That is too far out to comment for now. We will keep an eye out and report accordingly. Sorry, wish we had better news. I think Rose is getting close to opening, head over to Unofficial Rose for more. Stay Tuned...

When Will it Snow Again? Season Snowfall Forecast

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The question of the month is when will snow return to Lake Tahoe? Depending on your patience, this is either good or bad news; Currently high pressure is in complete control of the entire West Coast: Unfortunately, we see this blocking high moving only slightly. What does that mean? It means in the short term there is no significant precip coming to Tahoe. We do not predict man made snow, for that I suggest you go over to  Unofficial Rose . You can get the true heartbeat of the mountain there as well. We just due natural weather here. Now, if you are patient, we see a pattern shift begin around the 29th of November. Again this is still 9 days out, but our two most reliable models are forecasting this pattern change. Here is the forecast for Monday November 29th: This is the outer ring of a massive storm that is centered off the coast of Central BC. Between now and the 29th, if that storm moves a bit south we could see major precipitation. As it is, we should get a pretty decent shot of

Next Storm of Consequence Pushes in Monday Night

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What we are seeing today (11/6) is the leading edge of a larger storm. This leading edge could produce a few inches of snow for the Carson Range and Sierra. However a better storm is coming for Monday night: Later Monday evening the main front will push in. It has a decent moisture tap and should start out as all snow for Tahoe Resorts. However, as the front pushes through, it will pick up warmer air and snow levels will climb to around 7,000 or 8,000 feet. So this should be all snow for Mount Rose. How much snow? That is the question. The GFS weather model is much more bullish than the ECMWF and is calling for 1-2 feet for the Carson Range. The EC is calling for under a foot of snow. Let's hope for an over producer, because behind this front our ridge of high pressure will move into a blocking position. We do not see precipitation after this storm until around the 20th of November. Of course all that can change, because who's in charge? Not Us. Stay Tuned ...  

Several Glancing Blows Before a Real Storm Pushes In

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 We are in a stormy pattern with several storms headed our way. These are not like the last storm in that they do not carry the precipitation potential. We are looking at around 6 inches of snow for Mt. Rose between now and the 8th of November. Then a potentially larger storm comes in that could deliver a foot of snow or more. Our ridge of high pressure will need to flatten a bit prior to any storms making into Tahoe. So, for the next week the storms will just deliver us a glancing blow and for the most part, push north. That is not at all uncommon for this time of year. Our best chance of precip this week is very early Thursday (11/4) morning: The models have the leeward valleys being completed shadowed from precip, but the Carson Range could see a few inches, six at the most. Then around the 7th of November, our ridge flattens out which will allow storms to dip further south. How much is still up in the air: We expect several waves of precip to hit the Carson Range and possibly bring

Most October Precipitation in 20 Years, Just Off the Coast

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 ... And like that, Mother Nature flips a switch and we go from some of our driest weather in some time to some of our wettest weather in October, ever! There is a massive storm that is going wreak havoc on the northern half of California and Western Nevada. This storm is going to produce copious amounts of precipitation. That precip will spill over into the leeward valleys of Reno and Carson City and deliver some much needed rain. Maybe too much as flash flood warnings and watches are out for the entire area. This storm will pull up very warm air and tap into sub-tropical moisture. I believe the modern acronym is that we are about to experience an AR event (atmospheric river). Very unusual for October. Here is what the EC see's in the way of timing.  Friday October 22nd Noon : This is the weakest of the waves of moisture heading our way. There will be a window of on again off again precip throughout tomorrow (10/23), then very early Sunday the big stuff comes in: Sunday October 24

Weak Storms Are Paving the Way For Much Stronger Storms

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 Because we cannot rely on Mother Nature, we are tracking several very strong storms especially for this time of year. This will greatly aid in coming out of the current drought as Ma Nature cranks up her storm machine. The current storm will wind down Tuesday Night / Wednesday Morning (10/19 - 10/20). We do not expect much precipitation with this storm. Any snow will be in the upper elevations above 7,000 feet. Those levels, as always, will drop as the get on the backside of the front. This will bring beneficial moisture up and down the west coast. Notice the blob out at sea. That is going to spin into a stronger storm. The leading edge will pull up some very warm and moist air. This looks much more like a January weather pattern than October. But after the consistent record highs, many are probably relieved that winter will indeed return.  The leading edge of this major storm will be Sunday, late morning (10/24). As this storm continues to spin it will strengthen and pull up more moi