Tahoe Weather Blog

A major change in our weather pattern is underway. As we reported in our last post, gradually the storms will get bigger and wetter. One change is a large cold front will drop down out of Alaska and plunge us in the deep freeze the day after Christmas through that week. We are still expecting a major weather event with some areas of the Western Crest of the Sierra picking up 20+ inches of liquid precipitation. Here is what we are seeing: Wednesday 12/17 Storm beginning to move south. Early Saturday Morning (12/20) Subtropical connection being established. There is a large cold front to the north and a warm front to the south. They are going to collide and stall right over Tahoe. Midday Sunday (12/21) Monday ( 12/22) Christmas Eve - Wednesday (12/24) Storm moves up from the south, slams Tahoe and most of California. Christmas Day - Thursday (12/25) Major Sierra Snow Storm. Notice the cold front to the north. Saturday (12/27) Champagne Powder! We are seeing a possible dynamic for the beg...

This has been the slowest start to winter in the Northern Sierra in the last 40 years. That makes it historic. However, Ma Nature does not deliver precipitation in evenly spaced events. Instead, she messes with us. Just when we are thinking the ski season is lost .... BOOM ... she delivers historic storms! Or so it seems. The good news is that this historically slow start to winter is about to come an abrupt end. The pattern will begin to change mid-week, around the 17th. We are going to get a series of storms that will be progressively larger than the previous ... just like old times! Here is a synopsis: Wednesday December 17th This is a weak storm but it is just the beginning. We have a couple of strong storms, especially to the North that will take that ridge of high pressure and move it South. Friday December 19th This is a much stronger storm with a great moisture connection to the subtropical Pacific. What we really like about this ensemble is that it is going to stall and bring ...

For you skiers and riders, we are continually looking for storms. Because this is a long range weather forecasting service, most of you are depending on us to let you know when this historical dry and warm period will come to a screeching halt. Suffice it to say, it will come to a screeching halt. Let's start with the near term as we have a couple of weak storms that will make it into our area in about a week: Clearly the storms are growing in size. Our problem is the persistent ridge in the Jet Stream that is forcing everything north.  That appears to be at least weakening.The storms for the week of the 14th are not game changing they are showing a change in the pattern. Then around the 19th of December we finally have a decent precipitation event. It will still be warm, but should be all snow for Mt. Rose: Again, not a game changer but further evidence that winter will be arriving, just late. Speaking of winter, the solstice comes up the 21st of December and our days start gettin...

 Here is what we have been looking at for most of November and all of December: A huge ridge in the Jet Stream is sending storms well north of us and well north of the US. Of course we know this cannot last forever and Ma Nature oftentimes comes back with a vengeance. Although we are not seeing any storms in particular for Tahoe, the storms are beginning to move further south into the Pacific NW as the pattern slowly changes We are looking at the pattern shifting in about 9 days. After that we are hoping a few big storms spin up and set their sights on Tahoe, until then, do your rain dance! Stay Tuned ...

We just looked at the latest model run of the ECMWF. It does not look good for the skiers and riders.  First, we have a weak system coming in for Thursday: This is also a pretty warm system. Snow levels will hover between 7,000 and 8,000 feet. That will be all snow for Mt. Rose and we will take it. This last storm did what we thought and delivered between 1-2 feet which will give their snowmaking a good kickstart. This next storm looks like 3-5 inches of snow. Looking at the weather through the remainder of November, it looks like above average temperatures and dry. There are a few slider systems that will bring some cold air in, but only temporarily. I have looked at the monthly as well. Usually, we do not have to look that far out, but the models are predicting an extended dry period lasting into December. Sorry, no other way to put that. Having said that, the models have been changing on a daily basis. I find it hard to believe we will be dry for that long and will continue sear...

What looked like a very predictable storm coming out of the Gulf of Alaska is proving to be quite baffling to the weather models. Here is what we expect for now: Today (11/13) - Storm has moved on shore but there is a strong rain shadow. Mt. Rose will be kept away from the precip until later tonight. The leeward valleys could pick up some precip (all rain) early tomorrow morning. Snow levels will be greater than 8,000 feet. Tomorrow (11/14) - Storm moves out of the area by mid morning. The air remains very warm. Saturday (11/15) - Storm does an about face and moves back north by late Saturday night. Still very warm with snow levels over 8,000 feet. Sunday (11/16) - Storm is kicked out by a cold front from the north. Temperatures begin to drop. Monday (11/17) - Cold front comes through and snow levels fall to around 6,000 feet. Thursday (11/20) - Another storm comes in from the west. This storm is cooler and snow levels will be below 7,000 feet. That is what we are seeing. To sum it all...

The storm that is on tap for Thursday should bring around 12-18 inches of snow to Mt. Rose by Friday morning. Let's hope it overachieves as we do not see any major storms in the next several weeks.  Here is the forecast for Thursday, mid-morning: Snow levels will start around 8,000 and then drop down to around 5,800 as the cold front moves through. Here is the precip forecast for the event: Looking ahead, temperatures will be much cooler, below seasonal averages. The possibility for a pattern change could arrive just before Thanksgiving, but that is still too far out to forecast. Stay Tuned ...