Tahoe Weather Blog

The weather is going to be beautiful for the next 4-5 days. Then what is shaping up will be a decent storm toward the end of next weekend. In my last post, I talked about a larger storm coming in around the 22nd. Both the GFS and EC weather models are now talking about this storm more agressively. When the models align like this, they are normally very accurate. Before I was just overly optimistic about this system, I am now cautiously optimistic as some of the big long range forecasters are now also talking about this. How much and when remain questions, but suffice it to say, this should be the seasons first large storm. The EC weather model has about 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid precip blanketing all of the Lake Tahoe area. The system will have some very cold air associated with it so snow levels should be fairly low, starting at 7,500 and moving down as the storm hits. Here is what EC is saying for total precip through the 23rd: This should translate into 2-4 feet of snow for the mo

Inside slider slid right down the eastern Sierra and is bringing more cold air with it. You were warned. Tonight should be very cold. A giant ridge of high pressue will move into our area tomorrow and will not be moved until Monday or Tuesday of next week. This will bring a gradual warming trend with highs in the upper 50's by early next week. Once the ridge is moved out, indications are that we will return to another stormy pattern. GFS is calling for a large storm to slam our area on the 22nd of November, here is a look: I am pretty sure that I am the only idiot who is trying to predict a big storm 12 days down the road, but hey, I am not paid for this so take this with a grain of salt. In addition, I am not predicting this, the GFS weather model is. Also, the EC weather model has a large storm forming around the same time and coming into our area, although the EC is not as aggressive as GFS. One last reason why I brought up this storm, the PNA is going negative right arou

A large area of precipitation will move further west than I anticipated with my last post. This is really good news as we can expect 1-3 feet of snow at Mt. Rose by Tuesday Morning. Wednesday's storm, however, is losing moisture and gaining really cold air. The models are pretty much in agreement that we will not get a major precip event, but look for the bitter cold air to come in that I talked about in my last post. Amazing how fast the weather can change this time of year, so let's not count out Wednesday quite yet. After Wednesday we will become dry and temps will rebound, but only slightly. Looking way ahead, I see a stormy unstable period for 10 days, starting next Sunday. Stay Tuned ...

Two Storms This Weekend I am tracking 3 storms right now that should play a significant role on our weather and more importantly what happens up in the mountains. The first storm is coming in Saturday night. This is a splitter and does not have a ton of moisture associated with it. However, right behind that storm, for Sunday night a much larger storm moves into our area that should bring some reasonable amounts of snow above 8,000 feet. Here is a look at the total precipitation through Monday afternoon: If these systems hold together, the western Sierra around Tahoe could pick up 1-2 feet of snow, with about half that for the eastern shore (Mt. Rose). Much Cooler Next Week Starting Monday and lasting for at least a week our temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 40's for the valley. The High Sierra will see below zero readings in some spots. This will bring snow levels down just in time for what appears to be a much larger storm that should track right t

Storm Still North, but Moisture Coming Our Way With Direct Hit The giant storm that I have been talking about for the last 10 days, is moving across the Pacific. The blocking high has weakened and it looks like we will be hit pretty hard by this storm in the way of precip. Snow levels, however, will be very high. Here is what the storm and moisture tail look like from space, notice the moisture tail wrapping around about 40% of the planet: Here is what we can expect Sunday morning: Here is a total moisture forecast by Monday night: Areas north and west of Lake Tahoe, could be looking at 3-5 inches of liquid precip. As far as Reno and Carson City, the models are not in agreement. However two models are talking about heavy rains on Sunday, especially in the western foothills. This is just the beginning. The models are showing a series of very large storms heading into the area. We will get a few days off next week, but come Thursday another large storm is heading our way.

The remnants of Typhoon Megi are going to get caught up in the westerly flow, cross the Pacific Ocean and Slam the coast of Washington State. This is a very large storm packing extremely high winds and lots of moisture. Here is a look at the storm as it approaches the Pacific Northwest on Saturday evening: If you have not seen these weather maps that I post, you can make out the Northern West Coast of the US on the right side of the image. Northern California is in the lower right corner. This storm will impact our weather this weekend. The NWS is calling for 1.5-3.0 inches of rain along the north shore of Lake Tahoe. Some of this rain will spill into the valley adding to our already record amount for October. Here is the GFS precipitation forecast. GFS is calling for lesser amounts in our area. The NWS gets there information mostly from the EC model: GFS has about 1/2 to 3/4 of inch of rain for Lake Tahoe and perhaps a 1/4 inch for Reno. Any snow associated with this very war

In my last post I talked about a rather large storm that the GFS weather model says will tap into sub-tropical moisture and produce copious amounts of precipitation. The weather models are starting to agree that a strong area of high pressure will settle into our south and west. This area of high pressure will probably push this large storm north of our area, giving us a near miss. Here is a look for next Sunday, notice the huge area of high pressure off the Southern California coast which is blocking the storm from coming into our area and pushing it well to our north: A lot can change in the coming week and the GFS model originally had this storm hitting our area. It is a large storm and with our already swollen rivers and saturated soil it might be best for this one to move north. These sub-tropical storms are usually very warm. Snow levels will start around 9,000 feet or higher. With last nights rain, Reno broke its all time record for total precipitation in the month of Octo