Tahoe Weather Blog

My apologies, but the 3rd and 4th image from the last post were the same. I have placed the correct 4th image on the post. The winds are holding off for now and the storm is slamming us. The lifts are open, get up the mountain!

I am going to publish vital stats for the next 4 storms. These forecasts include the Sierra and Carson Range Sunday/Monday/Tuesday Start - Sunday Morning Peak : Very Early Monday Morning Best Skiing/Riding: Monday Amount: 2-4 feet - South getting more than north Briefly: Storm moves in late Saturday night, initially hitting north of Tahoe. Picks up steam on Sunday and moves south early Monday morning. Picture (Early Monday Morning): Wednesday/Thursday 3/23-3/24 Start - Wednesday Afternoon Peak : Thursday morning Best Skiing/Riding: Thursday Amount: 6-18 inches Briefly: Weakest storm in the bunch, comes straight from the west. Gets pushed out by bigger storm on Friday. Picture (Wednesday Afternoon): Thursday/Friday/Saturday 3/24-3/26 Start - Thursday Night Peak : Friday afternoon Best Skiing/Riding: Saturday Amount: 2-5 feet Briefly: Strong storm coming in from north, long wave pummels Tahoe for 3 days. Friday. Picture (Friday Night): Sunday/Monday 3/27-3/

The next storm in our series is knocking at the door and should produce 12-30 inches of snow for Rose. I would not be surprised if we were at the upper end of that. Let's take a look at the 84 hour moisture chart: This chart represents liquid precip from two storms that are going to slam our area and most of California. Incidentally this does include the leeward valleys of the Sierra and I would not be surprised if NWS issues a Winter Storm Warning for Reno and Carson. If you live in the foothills, expect heavy snow, perhaps as much as a foot by Tuesday. Now back to the above chart. Mammoth and the Central Sierra are going to get nearly 8-10 inches of liquid precip from these next two storms. That is over 100 inches of snow. Kirkwood is clearly in the 6-8 inch range, while the Tahoe Crest is in the 4-6 inch range. The Western Tahoe Crest should pick up 6-10 feet of snow by Tuesday morning. The chart above has slide mountain in the 2-3 inch range (liquid precip). However, I j

The timing for our next storm will remain Friday afternoon and evening. This storm will have much colder air to work with, but not nearly as much moisture. Having said that, I look for the Sierra Crest to pick up 1-2 feet of snow. The snow to water ratio will be much higher, in the 15-1 or even 20-1 ratio. For you Slide Mtn enthusiasts, I am looking for 6-18 inches by Saturday morning. This event may only last for a few hours and a blocking wind is in place. There will be some spillover to the valley and it will be all snow. Perhaps an inch or two (in the valley). Here is the GFS forecast for late Friday afternoon. I should mention that EC has this storm coming in about 8 hours later than GFS, but the conventional wisdom is that GFS is right on this one. Either way, Saturday morning should be epic with plenty of champagne powder. I want to talk about two other storms. The first is slated for late Sunday into Monday. These storms are born in the south and will have a more direct

The next storm is knocking on the door. This is a larger, warmer storm that will bring rain to the valley. It will also bring heavy snow to the Sierra, especially along the crest. Current forecasts show 2-4 inches of liquid precip. That will translate to around 2-5 feet of snow, depending on when the cold air arrives. Although Slide Mountain routinely does not get the full brunt of the storm, it should be in the track and 18-36 inches looks like a sure bet. All this by late tomorrow night. NWS is saying the winds will not be as strong either, that could keep the lifts spinning at the resorts around Tahoe all day tomorrow. Here is what EC is forecasting for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Notice that all of Tahoe is right in the bulls eye: Now take a look at GFS for this evening as the storm approaches: The one downside that I am seeing is this storm is bringing in some seriously warm air. It looks like snow levels could rise to 8,000 feet  as the warm air is sucked in fr

Last Night Last nights storm came in pretty much as predicted and moved the snow total on Slide Mountain to 407 inches and counting. The party is over for now, but starts up again tomorrow afternoon. If this thing comes in just right we can look for 18-36 inches of additional accumulation in the upper elevations of the Sierra and Carson Range by Wednesday night. As I said yesterday, this is a warmer system and will probably be mostly rain below 7,500 feet. Of course the base at Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe is over 8,000 feet and therefore this should be all snow. NWS is calling for rising water levels on creeks and streams but does not fear any wide spread flooding as of now. This Week The models are now somewhat in agreement that there will be nearly non-stop mountain snow, which will at times be heavy starting tomorrow night and lasting into the foreseeable future. A series of storms are stacked up and will move on shore just north of California. However the long wave affect of these sto

Slide Mountain has had just shy of 400 inches of snow this year. I believe there is a significant chance that they could top 500 within the next couple of weeks. A series of strong to moderate storms is approaching the area which will bring winter back for what could be two weeks, or longer. Let's start with the 3 storms coming this week: Tonight through Tomorrow: This is the weakest of the storms but should still pack a pretty decent punch as there is plenty of associated moisture. Expect 1-2 feet at the higher elevations and 3-6 inches at lake level. Here is the GFS look for early tomorrow morning. This will not affect the leeward valleys with anything but very strong winds:   Tuesday Night Through Wednesday This is a much stronger storm and has been well advertised. The models are in a agreement with this storm and it should bring significant snow above 7,500 feet in the  Sierra around Tahoe. This storm starts out warm and the NWS service is worried about heavy rain fall