Tahoe Weather Blog

A series of storms are coming. We believe we will see significant precipitation over the next 3 weeks and beyond. We are looking at the possibility of as much as 8-15 feet of snow for the Sierra Crest around Lake Tahoe by months end. Or we could see more! These storms should easily push through and leave similar totals in the Carson Range. The short-term, good news is that until about mid January these will continue to be cold storms. Snow levels will be in the 5,000-6,000 foot range, great for all Tahoe Ski Areas. In addition, the largest of the storms for the next week, Tomorrow's storm, will not bring in the 100 mph winds. I believe that the lifts will continue to spin at Mt. Rose through the storm. Qualifier: Exact wind conditions are very difficult to predict, so cross your fingers if you are planning on going up tomorrow. Around the 15th, our researchers are seeing a change in the pattern to a much wetter, warmer pattern with the Pineapple Express coming into play. The bi

Our weather will begin to come in from the west and south and with it will come tropical moisture as El Nino begins to dominate the pattern. In fact, starting late Monday and lasting into the foreseeable future, it is going to rain in the lower elevations and snow in the upper elevations. Here is a look at the Pacific: If you look at my previous post, this is a complete turnaround. In fact, our persistent ridge of high pressure is not even in the picture. We have not seen a pattern like this in many years and it is a very welcome pattern for Southern California as the westerlies will bring much needed rain. This El Nino is setting up to be historic insofar as moisture. Already areas around the Indian Ocean and western Pacific have seen historic rainfall (and flooding) and at least one of my researchers believes this is coming to California. Before I show you the 10 day precip forecast from the GFS weather model, let me say this; almost all of the forecasters and for

We have one more storm on tap. That storm will usher in very cold air and move quickly through the area. Unfortunately, this storm is moisture starved. Here is a look at the forecast for about noon on Christmas Eve: This storm will quickly exit our area and leave behind very cold air and very deep valley inversions, especially this coming weekend. Winds will not be nearly as strong and there is a good chance that the lifts keep spinning on Christmas Eve day, during the storm. With the heavy snow we received over the last several days, Christmas day could bring a champagne powder day. For all things powder, be sure to visit the best Mt. Rose site:  Unofficial Mt. Rose , they will let you know if the lifts are spinning and the kind of conditions that can be expected. I am expeciting 6-12 inches of very light powder for the Carson Range starting around 8:00am on Christmas eve and ending that evening. I see a lot of cold and no major storms perhaps through the end of the year. Howev

A series of weaker, warmer storms are headed our way that will bring snow to most of the Sierra and rain to the valleys. The big question is how much snow? My answer is: A lot. First allow me my disclaimer, the models are all over the place, there is serious moisture available for any storms headed our way and there are several storms poised to hit. The first of these systems comes in late Friday or very early Saturday. That system will weaken and clip Tahoe. Most of the precip will stay west of the lake but I do expect some accumulating snow for the Carson range. Here is a look at the forecast for midnight on Friday: This will stick with us for some time as the pattern is very wet. Look for snow or snow showers all the way up to the 24th. At that time a larger storm comes in and has great potential for really hitting Tahoe on Christmas Eve or thereabouts. Here is a look at the forecast for the morning of the 24th. This storm will move into Tahoe on the 23rd, pick up moisture

A very cold storm is knocking on the door. It will bring high winds to the party as well. In fact when you wake up tomorrow morning, there is a very good chance the lifts at Mt. Rose will be closed as slide mountain could be seeing Category 4 Hurricane winds (130 mph). Right now, it looks like the snowfall will be intense but short lived. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow starting at around noon and lasting into the evening. There will be some shadowing effect, which will slightly limit the amount of snow in the Carson Range: This system has a very adequate moisture tap, however there are no inland systems to act as a blocking force so it will quickly move through our area. By around 6:00 in the evening here is what it should look like: Finally, here is what the EC model see's in the way of total precip for this storm: Snow levels will start at around 6,000 feet. This will be all snow for all of Tahoe. The western shore ski areas will get the most snow o

The winter storm that is knocking on our door right now is on track to produce heavy snow for the Lake Tahoe area. For most of Tahoe its arrival will be early tomorrow morning. Amazingly the EC model nutted this thing over a week ago and the timing is nearly perfect. Here is a look at the forecast for early tomorrow morning: This is a strong storm that is tapping into a subtropical moisture plume. In fact take a look at the satellite right now: You can see our next storm located off the Oregon and Washington coast. This is a bigger storm and will bring even more snow to Tahoe. For the Carson Range, this will be all snow above 7000 feet. Snow levels will start there or slightly higher and quickly fall. In addition, the shadowing effect, which has been prevalent for our last few storms, will not be so strong. So I look for heavy snow in the Carson range through next Tuesday. There will be a slight break, but the 2nd storm will arrive Sunday in the early afternoon. Here is a l

As the models converge on a very stormy week, we are starting to see indications that the rains from the western Pacific are starting to make it here with a little bit more strength. First lets look at the upcoming week. There are a series of waves headed our way: Sunday Dec 6, 12:00pm This storm will be much better for the west shore of the lake but I still expect 2-4 inches for the Carson Range, 12-18 for the Western Crest of the Sierra. There will be a series of these small shortwaves that will be cast our way. We should pick up another few inches ahead of a much bigger storm that we have been talking about for a few days now. Thursday Dec 10, 12:00pm This is the best chance we have of a major storm. This will pick up moisture steaming across the Pacific and should deposit it all over Tahoe, including the Carson Range and Mt. Rose. I am looking for 10-20 inches out of this (Carson Range) and if things align perfectly,