Tahoe Weather Blog

We have a cold slider system coming in for Sunday. This system will usher in some arctic air and bring low temperatures near zero in the Sierra and low teens for the valleys.  This will NOT be a big snow maker system. In fact the ECMWF weather model is predicting almost no snow for the Sierra. The above forecast is the GFS weather model.  It will be warm up until Sunday, finally! Then it will take a few days to recover but we may start to see some average temperatures for this time year later in the week. We see no other systems in sight, but we all know that can change. Stay Tuned ...

We have one weak storm left in what has been an amazing storm cycle, even by Tahoe standards. This cycle lasted over 3 weeks and produced close to 20 feet of snow for Mt. Rose. Oops, I am not supposed to forecast what has already happened, but I could not resist.  Late tomorrow night our last storm in this cycle will arrive. Notice the blocking ridge of high pressure to the west. That will cut off any significant moisture tap.  We are looking at 4-8 inches for Slide Mountain and a few flurries for the valley. This is a cold storm and will bring with it some very cold air. That cold air will stick with us until the end of the month when it looks like our next storm cycle will begin: This is still a few weeks out so our confidence is pretty low. But the models do have that west coast ridge of high pressure getting shoved much further west. If you are a regular reader of this blog, you know that means the storm door opens. Stay Tuned ...

In about a week (1/17), the metaphorical caboose will pass by the station and high pressure will setup off the California coast which will push the storms north. Between now and then, we still have a series of storms that will wreak even more havoc in California. Having said all that, the reservoirs should be filled and all the gloomy predictions of the world coming to a quick end because you drive a mini-van, will go away for another year or so.  The largest of the remaining storms is poised to slam the Tahoe Area late Friday (1/13 - Yes, Friday the 13th) or early Saturday. That will be followed by another storm and last through most of Monday (1/16). That will bring an end to another epic Tahoe dump. Mother Nature flexing her muscles which are much bigger than our own. We expect that train to get back on the track, the only question is when? Stay Tuned ...

We have not seen precipitation forecasts like this one since 2017. We talked about that transition from La Nina to neutral and felt as though our weather could be effected back in October. Here is what is forecast for the next 2 weeks in the way of precipitation: Yes, many parts of the Western Sierra Crest are forecast to receive 25+ inches of liquid in the next 2 weeks. In the upper elevations, that translates into 20-30 feet of snow. The leeward valleys are looking at nearly 7 inches of rain in the next 2 weeks. While Mt. Rose should receive 10-12 feet of snow. These are mostly warm storms that will start out at very high elevations and come down as the the front passes and pulls in the cooler air. We believe this will be mostly snow for Mt. Rose, but other Tahoe resorts could be looking at major flooding. In addition, all that rain will melt snow and that water will go downhill which will definitely challenge the drainage systems around Reno, Carson City and other valley locations. 

  Another large, wet and warm storm is on tap starting Wednesday. This storm will be reenforced by smaller waves and will last, on and off, for nearly a week. The above graphic shows when the storm really gets cranking, Wednesday (1/4) evening. This storm will come in very warm, but snow levels will drop rapidly as a cold front comes through. Then, for the next several days, until the 9th of January, we will see all snow for all Tahoe resorts. However, by then most of the heavy moisture will have come through.  Mt. Rose will again have the best conditions with its high base as this storm will challenge the base of Rose and will probably deliver at least some rain. Although most of the precip will fall in the way of snow. Here is the forecast for January 10th: This is another storm with a subtropical moisture tap, or as the NWS likes to say, AR (Atmospheric River). However this storm will start out much cooler and will deliver all snow to Slide Mountain. Some Tahoe resorts, with low bas

We are in a very active, wet weather pattern. All indications are that this pattern will remain active through at least the middle of January. We are on the cusp of a huge, wet and warm storm moving into the Tahoe Area. This storm has a sub-tropical moisture tap that is very powerful and is moving very warm and humid air into the Tahoe region and driving snow levels up to around 10,000 feet.  However, those levels will fall quickly to around 8,000 feet by Friday night (12/30). Eventually, they will drop down to around 6,500 feet. By then most of the moisture will have moved on. Here is a look at the forecast for Saturday afternoon: We are then looking at a much cooler but also a much weaker system for the 2nd of January: This system breaks up as it hits the Sierra. I expect at most just a few inches of snow for Mt. Rose. Then, another very warm and wet system moves into the Sierra on Wednesday the 4th: This system will stick around and be reenergized through the 8th of January. I bel

Merry Christmas to all! I hope you are having a wonderful holiday season.  If you caught our last post, we have a huge pattern change and it is knocking on the door. Before we get to the timing and snow levels I thought it prudent to show the precip forecast for the next 10 days: We are looking at 12-16 inches of liquid for all the mountains around Lake Tahoe. Just South of the lake, they are going to get buried in the upper elevations. Add this to our already healthy snowpack and you see why averages do matter! Meanwhile, many valley locations will see 5+ inches of rain over the next 10 days. Storm 1 (Tuesday 12/27 @ 4am) This storm is packing a subtropical moisture tap and will be the warmest of the storms with snow levels starting out at 10,000 and dropping through the event. The event will last 20-24 hours and by the end, it will be all snow down to 7,000 feet.  Storm 2 (Thursday 12/29 @ 6am) The next event in the series is actually two storms. This will be another warm event and w