Tahoe Weather Blog

We have a series of very warm storms approaching the Tahoe area. We talked about this in our last post. These storms and the associated precip are born in the South and West and are not working with much cold air. That will do two things: limit the power of the storms and bring mostly rain below 8,000 feet starting later today (Sunday 12/17). Mt. Rose is usually the big winner in the El Nino years. Of course the exception is that these storms oftentimes are not powerful enough to stay completely in tact when crossing the Western Sierra Crest. So the Carson Range and Mt. Rose in particular can get shadowed out. That is what is going to happen this coming week. Notice the precipitation is staying mostly to the west of Lake Tahoe. Some will make it over, but the higher elevations on the western side of the lake will pick up more precipitation. Much of this is due to a week storm that really has no cold air to work with as it moves on shore. It will actually move up and down the coast befo

We predicted above average snowfall for the year. I am sure that most readers are thinking we are crazy. This has been a slow start to say the least. That is about to change, at least precipitation wise. A series of warmer storms will pull moisture from the tropics and deposit it all over California and Northern Nevada. The fun gets started a week from today. Remember these are very warm storms and snow levels will most likely be above Lake Tahoe (6,400) feet. Monday December 18th: Friday December 22nd Christmas Day A couple of things with noting here: These storms are progressively turning colder. This is a storm train where the storms are also getting stronger. We are looking through Christmas Day, but this pattern is showing no signs of changing. These storms are typical of El Nino, in that they are warmer and not quite as strong as the storms we were seeing last year. They are also more frequent which can lead to heavy precipitation with very little letup, sometimes for weeks. Fina

We have another reenforcing shot of cold air and what looks like a pretty decent slider type system for Thursday (11/30). Sliders come out of the north and have a much greater effect on the Eastern Sierra. Here is a look at the forecast for very late on Thursday as this storm moves in: We are looking at all snow for all Tahoe resorts with accumulations of around 6-12 inches. We can expect this pattern for the next couple of weeks as the models have several smaller systems which are capable of 6-12 inches moving in.  This weekend we will get a warm up with temperatures much warmer ahead of the next system which is slated for the 7th of December. When will it start to snow big time? We have been studying the long range forecasts and this pattern may persist through December. However, if you believe any of this, we could see a major pattern change as we ring in 2024. Of course that is pure speculation by the models, but that is all we have to go on for now. Stay tuned ...

 This storm which has stubbornly stayed off the coast while sending precip to Southern California, has shifted north, grabbed a little cold air and will form right over Lake Tahoe. This is not the event we were hoping for 10 days ago, but Mt. Rose could see a foot of snow which will greatly help them to open additional terrain. After this storm, however, it looks like an extended dry period. Here is the forecast for 6:00 this afternoon (Saturday 11/18): There will be a shadowing effect, so the crest above 7,500 feet on the west side of Lake Tahoe will pick up 1-2 feet. Here is the precip forecast, again, about 6-12 inches for Mt. Rose. This being a very warm storm will produce quite a bit of rain below 7,000 feet. The precip forecast for the 2 weeks following this event is nada, let's hope that changes. Stay Tuned ...

I am not going to waste a lot of your time here, the storm which we forecast split and will mostly die before making it anywhere near the Tahoe area. In addition, the weather models, which whiffed on this first storm of the season are predicting very dry weather for at least the next couple of weeks. Here is the forecasted total precip in liquid over the next two weeks: Looks like a slow start to the season ... Mt. Rose made a bunch of snow and is open top to bottom if you want to get some turns in. Stay Tuned ...

Storm Watch Today's storm is nothing but a small teaser for what looks to be a major winter storm in about 8-9 days. We are tracking a major storm that both the EC and GFS weather models are in very good agreement. Here is a look at the forecast for the 15th of November: If this storm holds together it will begin somewhere late on the 13th and could bring copious amounts of precip to the Sierra and Carson Ranges of Lake Tahoe. We believe this will be all snow for Mt. Rose as snow levels will start high but quickly come down. The following is the forecasted precip for the next 10 days. Needless to say, if this hits as all snow, Mt. Rose should be able to open quite a bit of terrain as we are talking about upwards of 4 feet. Let's hope it does hold together as we are seeing a ridge in the jet over our area moving forward, not unexpected this time of year. Season Watch We have been very lucky the last several years with our season snowfall predictions. We were the only site that p

I hope you are enjoying the pleasant morning and early afternoon. But change is a coming! A strong cold front will push down the eastern Sierra in a slider like system. These systems are very hard to predict when it comes to precipitation, but we are thinking less than 6 inches for the Carson Range. Here is the forecast for late to tomorrow night: Notice the very cold air has already pushed through. That will drop our temperatures by 20-30 degrees, at least and plunge us back into the 20-30 degree below average range. The good news: high pressure is going to take over and our temps will quickly recover. We could even see some above average temperatures by next weekend. Here is the forecast for late Friday night (4/7): Notice the warm air stretches all the way up into BC! This should mean some stellar spring skiing conditions for Mt. Rose, probably starting next Thursday. This warm air should stick around until at least the middle of April! Stay Tuned ...