Not Much In Short Term, Long Term Starting to Look Good

Short Term
This little storm that has been producing light snow showers has certainly shown more gumption than I thought it had. Having said that, it will only leave a few inches of snow behind in the Sierra and only at the upper elevations.

In my last post I talked about a cold front heading our way for Sunday. We are still on track for that storm and I am hoping that we can squeeze 4-8 inches out of it by Monday night. Then high pressure moves in. Here is a look at Wednesday the 30th of January.

As you can clearly see, high pressure will be dominating the entire west coast. The storm for Sunday will usher in some much cooler air, but that cooler air will be short lived. For you hockey players that are looking for frozen lakes, the short term does not look great. You may be able to squeeze in some ice time Monday through Thursday of next week ... but that may be pushing it.

Long Term
Things are definitively changing. In my last post I talked about larger storms that could change the weather pattern coming our way the first or second week in February. The two weather models that I rely on for long range forecasting are now hinting that the storm door could open up around the 4th of February with a solid week or more of stormy weather. The EC model is looking at 8-10 inches of liquid precip for that period of time and beyond. Here is the long range forecast for total liquid precip from February 4th through the 10th:

That purple is 8-10 inches of liquid precip. The darker red is 6-8 inches. This model has been pretty solid all year and I am reasonably confident of a major pattern change in this time frame.

Regardless, I will keep an eye on these developing changes and report accordingly. Think Snow!

Stay Tuned ...