Tahoe Winter 2026–27: A Super El Niño and My Mt. Rose Snowfall Prediction
Winter is approaching, and it's time for my annual Lake Tahoe ski-season snowfall prediction. With an exceptionally strong El Niño developing in the Pacific, I'm optimistic that Tahoe's mountain resorts could enjoy an above-average winter.
My prediction for Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe: 120% of normal snowfall, or approximately 420 inches.
A Super El Niño Is Taking Shape
Pacific Ocean temperatures have climbed to extraordinary levels, with recent Niño 3.4 readings near +3.3°C. Forecast models suggest this El Niño could rank among the strongest on record.
Historically, powerful El Niño events can energize the Pacific storm track, bringing significant precipitation into California and the Sierra Nevada. However, the location of that storm track is critical. Southern California can receive tremendous rainfall while the northern Sierra sees comparatively modest snowfall.
What History Tells Us
Looking at modeled snowfall during four strong El Niño winters, Mt. Rose experienced dramatically different outcomes:
| Winter | Mt. Rose snowfall |
|---|---|
| 1991–92 | 52% of normal |
| 1997–98 | 131% of normal |
| 2015–16 | 121% of normal |
| 2023–24 | 92% of normal |
The 1997–98 and 2015–16 winters are encouraging examples, but the other two demonstrate that even a powerful El Niño doesn't guarantee a snowy Tahoe winter.
Why I'm Favoring Mt. Rose
At 8,260 feet, Mt. Rose has one of the highest base elevations of any major Tahoe ski resort, with terrain extending to approximately 9,700 feet.
That elevation is a tremendous advantage during warmer Pacific storms. While lower resorts may experience rain or mixed precipitation, Mt. Rose is more likely to receive snow.
I'm particularly interested in the potential for an active January-through-March storm pattern. If the Pacific jet stream consistently directs storms into the central and northern Sierra, Mt. Rose could do exceptionally well.
My 2026–27 Prediction
I'm forecasting 120% of normal snowfall for Mt. Rose, translating to approximately 420 inches using a 350-inch seasonal average.
I expect other Tahoe resorts to finish near or somewhat above their seasonal averages, with higher elevations having the greatest advantage.
There is plenty of uncertainty. El Niño is only one part of a complicated weather system, and a persistent shift in the Pacific storm track could dramatically change the outcome.
The bottom line: I'm expecting a better-than-average ski season at Mt. Rose, with the potential for some impressive powder days, especially during the heart of winter.
Stay Tuned ...