Tahoe Weather Blog

Last post we talked about a large storm with great potential. This storm is now knocking on the door and our original forecast timeline is still right on. This storm is born in the north and will slide down the coast, enter Northwestern California, stall, then move straight into Tahoe. With it will come very strong winds that will have an impact on Tahoe and Reno, especially the wind prone areas of the leeward foothills. The NWS has issued a high wind warning, so be prepared these winds will start Wednesday night and will be very powerful, as high as 90mph down the eastern slopes! The storm will continue to slide south and the heaviest precip will fall in the Central Sierra. Tahoe will pick up quite a bit of precip, but just south from Kirkwood to Mammoth will see the most preicp. Here is a look at the forecast for around noon on Thursday: There is a very large moisture plume to the south that this storm is going to tap into and it will bring very beneficial rains to most of

A series of storms are headed our way and if the models are correct, should bring even more snow to the Sierra around Tahoe. The first wave comes in very late Friday night and should stick around for most of Saturday. The next Disturbance comes in very early Monday morning. Both of these are minor disturbances. A much larger system will then make its way to our area and could arrive very early on the morning of Thursday December 11. This system could hang around long enough for the next system to rear end it! Here is a look at early Thursday, 1 week from today: This system has several waves and is moving Northwest to Southeast and could (still a week out) score a bulls eye on Tahoe. Another very large system could appear on the heels of this system, but that is even further out. The models have been pretty good, at least the ones I look at, this year so I am very optimistic. Then again as a friend told me on the mountain today, it is because his friend brought bad luck and has n

With better than expected snowfall totals from yesterday, we are looking at the upper range of our earlier 18-36 inch forecast for the Carson Range. Mt. Rose has been the big winner thus far with all snow ( Unofficial Rose ). I expect heavy snow today and tonight, followed by a brief lull and then another storm comes in for Friday. Here is the forecast for 4:00 this afternoon as the storm continues to pound our area: I expect the snow to continue until about 3:00 Thursday morning and then expect periods of snow as the front passes through. Snow levels will remain in the 7000-7500 foot range. I expect another foot or possibly more for the Carson range above 7,500 by Thursday night. Another system moves in for Friday. The models have that system coming in from the north and I do expect it to make it down to our area and bring even more snow, 4-8 inches by early Saturday morning. Here is a look at the forecast for 10:00 Friday night: Above 10,000 feet in the Carson

A deep low pressure system will tap into ample moisture to our south and bring rain and snow to the Sierra and most of California. Snow levels will be very high for this storm and I do not expect any snow to make it anywhere near the valley floor or even the eastern foothills. Here is a look at the current weather: This is a big wet, warm storm. I think elevations above 8,000 feet will see all snow. Below that will probably be a mixture. Lake level will see most if not all rain. The leeward valleys will also see rain, perhaps as much as a half inch. The further west you go from there, the more rain you will see. As the storm approaches tomorrow night here is a look at the foreacast: The first wave will hit Tahoe and south pretty hard. Very beneficial rains will fall through Central and Southern California. Mammoth is going to get slammed.  The second wave comes in Wednesday night and should center its attention on Tahoe: As the storm moves on shore, it will

The large storm that I talked about last post is being delayed, heavy traffic out in the Pacific. However, we are still in for a stormy 5-7 days starting tomorrow around noon. Several waves are poised to come in and hit us before the main storm makes its way to us on Tuesday of next week. Here is a look at the forecast for late Tuesday night: Here is a look at the total liquid precip being forecast through next Wednesday: If you read my last post you will see the forecast has decreased the amount of total precip, Especially for the Carson Range as this storm will be Shadowed by the western Crest to a certain degree. However, by next Wednesday, most Tahoe ski areas should have much more snow to work with, I would say upwards of 3 feet. Again, Mt. Rose with it's high base should make out well. This storm will come in warm and as the cold front moves through, snow levels will plummet. I would say all snow above 7,500 feet. Looking further down the road, I am tracking two v

Picking up where we left off, last post, conditions have been ripening for a more serious storm cycle to come to our area (finally). I am seeing things in the shorter term models that are now aligning with the longer term models (see fantasy forecast from last post). I must say, I am very excited with anticipation. Just a quick disclaimer, we are still 5-6 days out so things could change, but here is what the most reliable weather model is saying today and has been hinting at for the last 3 weeks. I will take you through a series of forecasts starting very late on the 28th; Friday November 28th 11:00pm, Storm is still to our west but a large plume of moisture is starting to form: Saturday November 29th 3:00pm, storm increases in size and begins to stall with the center just off the coast of Northern California. Sunday November 30th 4:00 am,  storm has completely stalled and is picking up strength Monday December 1 1:00am,  storm has spun up into one of the most

Checking the latest run of the EC weather model, I notice that it is trending upward for precip potential for Saturday afternoon's storm (see last post). Here is an updated look; seems the wave has a little more moisture to work with: We are now looking for up to 2 inches at the Crest and perhaps half that in the Carson Range. Snow levels are a bit tricky, but I think anything above 7,500 will be all snow. As the front passes through snow levels could drop to the valley floor. However, no valley accumulation is expected. Just as a disclaimer, the NWS is not seeing this and is predicting a dusting to 2 inches at the Crest and a whiff for the Carson Range. I guess we will see as I am looking at 2 feet at the Crest and probably a good foot of snow on Slide Mountain (and maybe more) by Sunday afternoon. Fantasy Forecast I have been watching the EC 30 Day weather model, which surprisingly is in disagreement with their Deterministic (10 Day) weather model. The Long Range has a se