Tahoe Weather Blog

By Paul Huntington What is next Winter going to bring to the mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and how are the large planetary waves going to behave? Planetary waves are the oscillations in the jet stream around the mid latitudes (Westerlies) that bring either high pressure (ridging) or low pressures (troughing) in the atmosphere and behave much different than the low pressures around the equator that form more from very warm ocean surface water and air condensing into water vapor/clouds and large cumulus thunderstorms/cyclones that create a feedback loop called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), this reverberant affect propagates eastward around the equatorial world kind of like a stack of dominoes folding upon one another. It is very hard to predict when and where it might find a comfortable region stalling out and influencing the Northern Hemispheres Jet stream dynamics but seems to be acting up recently and could be a major player in the extension of the Asia Pacif

By Paul Huntington Starting on June 8 Thursday a big pattern change is taking place with a very unseasonable strong low pressure rotating down from Aleutians and could bring as much as a foot of snow above 8000 ft, adding even more white stuff to our already incredibly large snow pack in the Sierra. The meridional angle (El Nino type trajectory) of the jet stream in the North Pacific is following a very similar path to what brought us saturated air masses throughout the Winter in 2016-2017. Moreover, it seems the Arctic Oscillation is finding a quasi equilibrium more around negative than positive meaning the pressure gradient in the North Pacific on the southerly extent of the northern hemispheric jet stream (westerlies) is lower than average thus allowing the jet stream to dip down into California. Also the Antarctica Oscillation is finding a quasi equilibrium in the positive (climate change and a warming planet could be fueling this pattern change) meaning the jet stream is hugging

A weak, moisture starved system, which is being completely oversold by the local media, will come in tomorrow and clear out by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will drop, especially in the mountains, but this is nothing like what we have seen this winter. Starting Wednesday afternoon we see high pressure taking over and we could see our first 90's by late in the weekend or early next week. Stay Tuned ...

We hope you enjoyed these last few days, because the warm sunshine is going to give way to West  Coast Troughing starting tomorrow. For about the next 7 days temps will struggle to get out of the 50's with cloudy, windy, cool and even rainy conditions. Perfect for getting those last turns of the season at Mt. Rose! This stormy, cool weather will culminate with at least a reasonable chance for some rain and snow next Tuesday afternoon. Here is the forecast for Tuesday afternoon: This is a slider type system that will drop out of the north and really make us question if it is really May. As the season winds down and the weather begins to stabilize, our posts will decrease as there just is not much to talk about. However, rest assured we are keeping a very close eye on next winter. If you read Paul Huntington's post from last week, there are several reasons to believe, that this years record precipitation may also be on tap for next year. Stay Tuned ...

Report by Paul Huntington I am seeing some interesting active late season weather beginning around Saturday May 6 and continuing for a couple weeks into Middle or even late May. These wont be huge storms like this winter but more cool showery lows with embedded thunderstorms and enough to warrant people to question "What is happening to our climate system?" Once again the global teleconnections are again in perfect alignment for troughing along the West Coast of North America. Yes, I know its time for Spring and warmer weather but we might need to wait- albeit this weeks heat spike- till June. The pattern that is unfolding is very similar to what brought us rains throughout our Winter and doesn't seem to want to budge. The climatic pattern taking shape in the North Pacific is supported by the Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation or a weakening pressure gradient between the North Polar low and southerly high in the Central North Pacific along with the North Atlanti

We have 3 systems that will move quickly through and have a slight impact on the area. I do not see any major snowfall amounts in any one given time period, however the total of all 3 systems will leave us with more snow in the Carson Range and Sierra. Let's focus on the total precip and snow levels. Mt. Rose will receive all snow. For the most part snow levels will be around 6,500-7,000 feet. However, the 2nd system could bring in some warmer air and snow levels could jump to 7,500 feet late tomorrow or early Tuesday. Here is the precip forecast: Some areas of the High Sierra, around the western crest could see as much as 3 additional feet. Those areas, above 9,000 feet have picked up so much snow this season, that 3 feet is like a few inches anywhere else. It is interesting that Mt. Rose has led North America in snowfall amounts, because the highest peaks, west of Lake Tahoe at the crest of the Sierra have picked up much more snow, perhaps some areas in the 1,000 inch ra

We are tracking 3 storms right now for next Wednesday, then a week from today and then, perhaps, the 21st of April. The last storm hooked up nicely with a moisture tap and we see something similar for the storm next week, although probably not as much moisture by about half. Here is the forecast for late Wednesday night: A decent moisture connection, but nothing like what we saw in the last storm. Snow levels for this one should be around 6,500 at the start and fall to around 5,000 feet as the cold front passes through. That means the leeward foothills can expect more snow on the ground. The following Sunday night see's the next storm come in. This storm does not have the moisture associated with it and will only bring in more cool air. I see light amounts of snow and lot of wind. Here is the forecast for Sunday afternoon as the storm approaches: The last storm we are tracking could show up on the 21st and may bring a return to the moisture tap, we will have to wait a