Mixed Bag Makes Forecasting Difficult

This time of year it is very difficult to look very far out with any sort of accuracy. The following chart explains why:

This chart illustrates where we are and where we have been for nearly a week now. There are still some very strong, unseasonably strong, storms spinning out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Ocean. However we have a very strong area of high pressure right off the California coast. Any storms that attempt to make their way down to our area are blocked. Occasionally, a long wave sneaks through and brings us wind, cold and some very light precip, like this past weekend. We will get a few more waves sneaking through over the next week or so that will only influence our weather with wind and cold.

However, if that high pressure breaks down, and it has not shown any signs of that, it will open the door for more stormy weather. Taking a look at the PNA, which when negative oftentimes means stormy weather for us, there is a chance that we could be looking at a change, perhaps a week to ten days down the road.  The models are not picking up on this at all, and my confidence is very low. With many Tahoe resorts staying open into May now, wouldn't it be nice to have a final stormy two weeks? Here is a look at the long range PNA chart:

I will keep a very close eye on this. If you examine that PNA chart, it has been a very reliable predictor of weather. I just think that this time of year, it is very difficult.

Stay Tuned ...