Quick Update

The 00z run of the EC weather model is predicting a strong storm for the Lake Tahoe area starting Wednesday and lasting into Friday. EC has this storm dropping straight out of the north. This will bring limited precipitation to the Sierra. It will also bring in some unseasonable, if not unreasonable temperatures. Areas of the Sierra could dip below zero as the cold front pushes through on Wednesday. EC is bold on predicting that some snow will fall on Thursday into Friday as a reinforcing front pushes in behind the big cold front. The leeward valleys will see no precipitation. Here is what EC see's for Thursday (GFS and NAM disagree):

Because of the cold temperatures, snow to water ratios will be very high. EC is predicting about .5 to 1 inch of liquid precip for Tahoe and 1-2 inches for Mammoth. That translates into 6-18 inches for Tahoe and 1-2 feet for Mammoth on Thursday. The weather models are not in agreement, but the NWS is leaning toward the EC model.

Stay Tuned ...