Weather Pattern Changes Coming Slowly

We have an impressive front approaching the Pacific NW coast. Unfortunately we have a strong ridge of high pressure that is very dry. These two air masses are going to collide. The result will be the ridge will be weakened as will the front. That means a severely weakened storm will come into our area Thursday and Thursday night. The storm will produce light rain and snow for the mountains with little if any precipitation for the valleys on Thursday and Thursday night. Right now Halloween does not look bad for the trick or treat'ers.

Looking ahead, the ridge will build back in and by the weekend through early next week our temps could be 10 degrees above normal so prepare for another shot of Indian Summer. 

Toward the end of next week, a much more impressive storm is headed our way. The models are all advertising this storm with slight differences with strength and timing. The European model, which has been by far the most accurate for almost a year now, has this for Friday of next week (11/10):

This is a very impressive storm and the moisture will spread into the central Sierra around Mammoth as well. As this storm approaches I will have updates if they are warranted. 10 days is a lot of time and a lot can happen between now and then.

Long Range
Ok, nobody can decided what our winter is going to be like. These next two charts come from the JP Morgan news service. They are provided to agriculture commodity traders who use this information to buy commodity futures. Please notice their confidence level in their December, January and February predictions. To repeat last column, we are moving into a very weak El Nino or more likely a neutral ENSO. Under those conditions these charts are typical.

Most of the El Nino forecasts have backed off. However, I would not be surprised to see El Nino move to a moderate strength by winter's end. I base that on a gut feeling coupled with some historic data following severe drought years.

Stay Tuned ...