Storms Take Aim at Tahoe
As we suspected, a slight change in the Jet and we could see winter with snow in our mountains, sooner rather than later. We are beginning to see that change now and if you believe the GFS weather model, a series of storms are poised to hit our area starting around 14th of this month. The key is the high pressure ridge in the jet is now forecast to move quite a bit to the west, that should open the storm door. We are currently tracking 3 storms, each getting progressively more intense:
11/14/2020
Notice how far west the ridge of high pressure has moved. That opens a wide storm door. What we are not seeing is a big moisture tap to the south ... not yet.
11/18/2020
Our Ridge stays to the west, keeping the storm door open. La Nina storms can be much larger and despite these being early season storms, they are quite powerful.
11/20/2020
This storm looks to be the king. In true La Nina fashion, it will have the greatest effect on Northern California and the Pacific NW. Notice the moisture tap to the south now. If this holds together, it could be an epic November storm!
The precip totals are not all that impressive, but it is still mid November. Remember last year, we had early December storms and then went dry. However, that snow kept conditions excellent until COVID ruined the season. The more snow we can get early, the better!
The chart below is not taking into account the big storm, I believe by Thanksgiving we could be seeing 6 feet of snow (or more) in the Carson Range. Couple that with Mt. Rose' improved snow making and we could/should be open top to bottom by Thanksgiving.
Stay Tuned ...