Storms Update; Three Storms in the next 2 Weeks
This last storm was an overachiever and ushered in a major pattern change. Fairly typical for this area; a single storm, in one day, changes our weather from summer to winter for several months. We are just over a month away from the Winter Solstice and winter has finally arrived.
If you read our last post, we were tracking 3 storms. The models are consolidating and our confidence of a major winter event, is now very high. The only real change is the timing. It would appear that everything will arrive about a day sooner than expected.
First, here is the GFS precip forecast for the next 2 weeks:
The Tahoe area looks very much like 8-12 inches of liquid precip in the next 2 weeks. The GFS is more bullish than the EC, but the EC is coming around. These storms will be warmer and will produce a better base than what we saw this weekend.
We can expect the next storm to show up late Friday November 13th. That will be a fast moving storm. Close on it's heels is another storm for the 16th.
Our favorite storm in the bunch shows up late on the 18th:
All of the storms will be warmer than this last storm, but I do not see elevations producing any rain at Mt. Rose. As we get closer to the various events, we will know more. The above chart shows what we like to see; a huge moisture tail that pulls up tropical air which is very moist. Combine that with the cold air of the storm and you get major dumpage.
Looking a bit further out, we do see conditions staying ripe through most of November for more storms.
Stay Tuned ...