Pattern Change Starts This Weekend

 The pattern change that we have been talking about for the last 3 weeks is finally upon us. We have a series of storms heading to Tahoe. The question that remains; how much snow will these storms bring us?

We hope to answer that question.

Right now the models are at odds with one another. What does that mean? That means that our confidence of a major weather event over the weekend is not as high as we would like. In fact, the GFS model, has backed off completely on a storm hitting this weekend. It is calling for a glancing blow. The European model, which is more accurate in our opinion, is calling for a moderate snow event for the Tahoe area:

The above chart is the forecast for Sunday afternoon as seen through the EC weather model. This should bring some very beneficial snow to Tahoe, but not what we were looking for. The NAM or North American Model, is in agreement with the European model. (Sorry for the confusion)

We have a very unstable pattern that we are moving into, so I expect the models to consolidate on a snowy period for Tahoe. We hope the beginning is this weekend.

Meanwhile, the GFS weather model is predicting a very slow transition to a stormy pattern that will begin to peak a few days before Christmas.

The good news is these storms are cold enough to produce all snow for most Tahoe Resorts. Some models have snow levels around 6,500 feet so Lake level resorts could see some rain. We are thinking 8-14 inches by end of day Sunday for Mt. Rose, again confidence is not terribly high.

Because of the uncertainty, we will post again as the models consolidate. Again, look for about a foot of snow at Mt. Rose by the end of Sunday.

Stay Tuned ...