Tahoe Weather Blog

In our previous post we talked about the potential for 6 inches of snow in the Carson Range and double that on the western side of the lake. That appears to be happening. We also talked about warmer storms and near misses for the weekend. There are several storms coming our way for late Friday and then again on Sunday. However these storms are going to slam into the Sierra dip south, unable to get up and over, that will leave the Carson Range with just minor precip and the leeward valleys high and dry. However, Sunday's storm is going to stall and then get slammed by a much bigger storm. That will force the moisture up and over the Sierra and next week looks like a very stormy period for the Tahoe area. Here is a look at the forecast for early next Tuesday (January 15th): We already had two storms collided forcing the moisture over the Sierra. Also, notice the next storm just off the coast. That will move onshore. Here is the forecast for about a week from today: On

Enjoy the light powder while it is here as the next several storms will not bring nearly the amount of precip and will be much warmer with snow elevations pushing 7,000 feet. The next storm will arrive Tuesday late afternoon, here is a look at the forecast, again nowhere near as impressive as this latest storm, but could leave a foot or more on the western side of the lake, above 7,000 feet with about half that for the Carson Range. I do not see much spillover for the leeward valleys from this storm. The next several storms will have a much greater impact on Southern California, where they really need the rain. We do not see any significant precip after Wednesday through the weekend and early part of next week for the Tahoe area. The big storm for SoCal shows up in about a week: The weather pattern does remain active and I expect the models to change, but as of right now, the storms are splitting and losing their energy prior to getting here. Although nobody is complainin

A series of storms should move through the Tahoe area and bring a big dose of winter for at least the next 10 days. It would be impossible to tell you when all the snow starts and stops, so we will concentrate on the highlights of the 4 storms that are stacked up and poised to hit our area. These storms are coming from the west, which should be a better trajectory for climbing over the crest and pounding the Carson Range as well. Saturday January 5th @ 10:00 pm Sunday January 6th @ 4:00 pm Wednesday January 9th @ 4:00 am Friday January 11th @ 10:00 pm Sunday January 13th @ 10:00 am The pattern does appear to continue past the middle of January. Here is a look at the forecast liquid precip for the next 10 days: As we said in our last post, which predicted this major pattern change over a week ago, the Carson Range is forecast to pick up anywhere from 4-8 inches of liquid precip which in a worst case scenario, should be 4 feet of snow in the next 10 days. I

Our persistent high pressure ridge has been dominating our weather for most of the season, which is not totally unusual. However, the weakness of the storms to penetrate the ridge has been somewhat surprising. We are starting to see at least a temporary break-down of the ridge as it slides south which should open the storm door for 4 or 5 day event starting next weekend. Here is our current condition: Notice how this ridge is blocking any storms from getting to our area and blocking any tropical moisture taps for storms that do reach our area.  Our weather is sliding down the eastern side of the ridge is also bringing us much colder air. Now take a look at what develops for next weekend: As the ridge slides south, the jet dips down and through our area. There are then several storms that should slam right into us. Our tropical moisture tap is still being blocked, but we are tapping into some moisture which should increase the amount of precip these storms deliver. We s

A weak to moderate storm will move into Tahoe today bringing rain and snow to the area. Following the storm will be a strong cold front that will drop temperatures significantly. We expect around 12-18 inches for snow through Christmas day for the Carson Range. More for the western side of the lake. Behind the precip will be very cold air and a series of short wave sliders will reinforce that cold air through the end of the year bringing additional light snow, with another storm on tap for New Years Eve. Snow levels for this event will drop down to 5,000 feet with the potential for up to 6 inches of snow for the leeward foothills. This will certainly help the resorts around Tahoe but is will not be the answer to our snow prayers, nor does it look like next week's storm will bring a strong Sierra event. We are still looking out for that and are confident it will come. We apologize for our absence but the day job got in the way. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year to all!

We need this next storm to produce. In a year where the storms have under performed, we have what could be an okay storm that could bring a foot of snow. That storm comes in very late on Sunday and should last through early Monday morning. The GFS has this storm moving through much faster than the EC, but we are confident this one should leave behind some snow. Here is a look at late Sunday night: After this storm, the models are saying dry weather for at least the next week as our ridge moves back into position. There will be a few glancing blows, but overall we see no major snow events for the Sierra. That is the bad news, the good news is, the ridge should break down shortly after Christmas which will give us a chance for additional storms to move through the area. Conditions have just not been favorable for a major snow event, unfortunately. We will keep an eye way out and report accordingly. Stay Tuned ...

The weather pattern remains active, despite the very disappointing performance of this last storm. We are tracking two storms; one for late Friday and another for late Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Friday storm, the weaker of the two: Here is the forecast for the Sunday night storm: Both of these system are fast moving so we will not see any epic dumps out of this. However, in a best case scenario Mt. Rose could pick up a couple of feet by this time next week with the bulk of the snow coming late next weekend. Valley Inversions The leeward valley's will continue this awful inversion which is trapping the fog and moisture until about Wednesday. A very weak and dry system should cause significant mixing and kick that crap out of here which should allow the sun to finally shine through and warm us into the upper 40's or low 50's, especially Friday and over the weekend as these storms approach. The next two systems will remove any remnants of the fog and h