Storms Still On Track, Cycle May Intensify Next Week

Today and Tomorrow's Storm
The storm that I have been talking about for a couple of weeks is here and is following just what the models have forecasted. It has moved north which still leaves plenty of precip for our area. It should be snowing in the Sierra for at least the next 24 hours. The crest will pick up between 1 and 3 feet. The Carson Range (Slide Mtn) should pick up about half of that, 6-18 inches. This is because of a string south wind that is keeping the bulk of the precip in the Sierra. Here is an updated look at precip totals through Friday:

Sunday's Storm
Sunday's storm is also on target for what I talked about in my last post. It looks like a shot of pretty intense snow starting Sunday morning and lasting through the day. Here is a look at the forecast for very early Sunday morning:

This is also a warmer storm that should bring rain to all areas of the valley. Snow levels will probably be in the 7,000 foot neighborhood, which means rain at lake level too. Could be a sloppy mess. Monday and Tuesday, after the storm comes through, will see below normal temps ahead of the next series of storms.

Take a look at surface temperatures at 10:00am Sunday morning during the peak of the storm:

Late Next Week's Storms
Starting next Thursday (3/10) and possibly last for nearly a week, a series of storms are coming to the area. These too are warmer storms. Here is a GFS forecast look for Saturday, March 12th:

What has changed? We are still in a significant stormy pattern, but the storms are much warmer. That is due to the blocking High Pressure system moving south. The storm corridor is still there, but the moisture tap is much warmer air. Even though the dynamic has not changed that much, the shift south means warmer storms as they move around the high pressure system in a clockwise rotation.

Will the stormy pattern end anytime soon? Yes. Strong indications are that we will move into a much more stable pattern in the 2nd half of March.

Stay Tuned ...