When is our Next Big Storm?

Before we get into the next storm or storms I think it is fair to mention the tremendous benefits of this last storm. The Sierra picked up anywhere from 5-10 feet of snow which is pretty amazing for this time of year. Better yet, the snow levels were very low and all Tahoe resorts saw epic conditions this past weekend.

I was told the Mt. Rose Chutes opened up (partially) yesterday. I would guess that Yellow Jacket was closed. Here is a video of Ski Patrol's avalanche prevention measures:

Massive Yellow Jacket Avalanche

One lift operator told me after seeing this, "That was all five feet sliding down the hill".

Ok, on to the next storm. I have been hearing about a big warm storm coming in at the end of this week. We think the pattern will turn stormy, but as we reported last post, this storm looks to be cutting north and will only give us a glancing blow. It is the following storm that has our attention.

First of all, it is going to warm up to seasonal temperatures or above before things start to change on Thursday.

Above is a look at the forecast for very early on Thursday morning. The storm comes up from the southwest and just delivers us a glancing blow. As the storm moves north, it's connection to sub-tropical moisture is severed. This storm will be around with periods of light precip for the Sierra until Saturday. It is not coming in quite as warm as first thought as snow levels will hover around 6,000 feet.

As this storm exits another storm, which is much bigger, enters the picture. This storm is going to split and come at us in two waves. The first wave, which is the weaker of the two arrives early Sunday morning. 

The second wave is on tap for early Monday morning (March 12th):

This second wave is fast moving but will again provide great moisture for most of the state of California.

Looking a bit further out, another storm could be on tap for late March 14th:

This storm could be another glancing blow, we will have to see how it sets up.

Here is the 10-day precip outlook. We feel as though these numbers are slightly low and when all is said and done we could be looking at around another 3 feet of snow for the Carson Range. They take into account the first and third storms delivering us just a glancing blow. Also, the trajectories are such that the Sierra will pick up more moisture than the Carson range. 

All of these storms should deliver their moisture at or below 6,500 feet,which is the good news. We will watch further model runs and report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...