Weak to Moderate Storm for Wednesday; Major Pattern Change, Finally!

We are tracking a weak to moderate storm for Wednesday the 27th. We will take what we can get after a very slow start to winter. The models are surprisingly in agreement for this storm as it comes in from the NW (much better trajectory) starting very late Tuesday night. It should produce snow all the way to the valley floor and this will be a snow event for all Tahoe resorts at all elevations. Here is a look at the ECMWF forecast for around 10:00 pm Tuesday the 26th:

This should be the first in a series of storms that could last into the middle of December or later. Buyer beware, we are looking quite a ways out and the GFS model is much more bullish on some major storms coming our way. We have been talking about this pattern change and it looks like it is nearly upon us.

I just read a very interesting post at Unofficial Rose about when the lifts will spin to the top at Mt. Rose. Sven has more information about this than anybody else and I highly encourage you, if you ski/ride in Tahoe to subscribe to this blog. Not only will you get great info about Mt. Rose, Alpine, Squaw Valley and other resorts, but Sven is one of the foremost experts in the back country and some of his information could save your life!

Back to our pattern change; Here is the GFS forecast for around the 3rd of December, we have been tracking this storm for the past several weeks:

Again, the EC model is not quite as bullish on this and several other events. Let's hope the GFS has it right as a series of very large storms will follow this. These storms will be warm and wet, perfect for producing base at Rose, but could be an issue at the lower elevations for some of the other resorts.

Finally, here is the 30-day precip forecast calling for all of Tahoe to pick up in excess of 10 inches of liquid precip. This comes from the EC model so we are pretty confident in the coming pattern change.

Stay Tuned ...