Tahoe Weather Blog

Current We have an impressive front approaching the Pacific NW coast. Unfortunately we have a strong ridge of high pressure that is very dry. These two air masses are going to collide. The result will be the ridge will be weakened as will the front. That means a severely weakened storm will come into our area Thursday and Thursday night. The storm will produce light rain and snow for the mountains with little if any precipitation for the valleys on Thursday and Thursday night. Right now Halloween does not look bad for the trick or treat'ers. Mid-Term Looking ahead, the ridge will build back in and by the weekend through early next week our temps could be 10 degrees above normal so prepare for another shot of Indian Summer.  Toward the end of next week, a much more impressive storm is headed our way. The models are all advertising this storm with slight differences with strength and timing. The European model, which has been by far the most accurate for almost a year now,

Current 3 feet of snow has fallen in some areas of the Sierra with what appears to be another major snow event poised to hit this evening. The following shows the EC Model for tonight: When all is said and done, many mountain areas around Lake Tahoe will pick up 4-6 feet of snow. That should provide a very nice start to the winter. The good news is that this storm was not an anomaly such as a typhoon crossing from Japan. This storm dropped out of the Gulf of AK and picked up ample moisture from the Pacific Ocean and dumped. That is a good sign for the storm machine to start cranking up. El Nino Watch El Nino has weakened and the ENSO outlook is for neutral to weak conditions. About 1/2 the models are saying we will move into a weak to moderate El Nino for the winter of 2012/2013, while the other half are saying we will remain in a neutral ENSO. Summer is Over Summer appears to be over. 80's and 70's will not be seen again around here for some time as the long range

First of all let me apologize for my absence. I had a death in the family and have been out of town for nearly 10 days. However, had you read my post from the 3rd of October you were warned that a storm was very likely to make it down the coast and hit our area hard ( Post From October 3 rd) starting today. I must say, getting it right from that far out is the exception rather than the rule especially since I was the only fool talking about it 19 days ago. This storm is packing a very good precipitation punch and areas north and west of Tahoe will pick up in excess of 2 feet of snow at the crest and up to a foot of snow at Lake Level, especially on the north shore. Snow levels are plummeting and snow is falling as low as 5,000 feet which means travel on I-80 is going to be a mess. Here is the precipitation forecast through Thursday, remember this is liquid precipitation: As you can see, some areas north and west of Tahoe could pickup 3-5 inches of liquid precip. That means iso

We have been discussing El Nino since July. However, at that time we moved into a weak El Nino and it has weakened slightly since. However, NOAA is still predicting a moderate El Nino through the winter which bodes well for snow in Tahoe. We have had unseasonably warm and quite frankly beautiful weather through the entire month of September. That is going to change starting tomorrow and  you will feel those changes through the weekend. We have a large blocking ridge of high pressure that is keeping what few storms there are, well to our north. This storm is the exception and a piece of energy should break off and give us some very light precip. Perhaps a dusting of snow above 10,000 feet on Saturday night. Remember, about this time last year we had a typhoon cross the pacific and slam the Sierra with rain and high elevation snow. Of course it did not snow again until mid-January. I do not see that happening at all this year. There are indications that around the 18th of this month,

First let's talk about the significance of El Nino; El Nino winters almost certainly are average to significantly above average for the Sierra Nevada mountains around Lake Tahoe. After last winter (or lack thereof), El Nino would be a welcome site. El Nino is warming surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific waters. Forecasters who want an early jump on how the winter will shape up usually start with the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Currently we are in a neutral ENSO. I believe that is changing as I write this. There are many indicators that things are radically different than last year ... some scientific (like ocean temperatures) and some not so scientific. Last year I mentioned that many forecasters saw wet early winter for our area. I did not climb on that bandwagon. We moved into a strong La Nina early on and that more times than not means below average precip. The previous winter meant that La Nina brought giant storms and well above average precip ... so many sa

If you enjoy the warm weather, do not get too acclimated. That is because an unusually large storm is coming straight out of the Gulf of AK and heading for your backyard. We have one more full day of above average temperatures. Then on Sunday, starting in the afternoon, the winds will start to increase ahead of this large storm. There should be a decent precip event for the Sierra around Tahoe and there is a very good chance of rain and then snow spilling over to the valleys. The snow will come down to 4,500-5,000 feet. Crazy to imagine we had a big storm in January with 11,000 foot snow levels and this one, which will start as all rain, will bring valley snow in June! Here is a quick peek at the forecast for very early Tuesday morning: Of course there is not enough energy for any accumulation and the ground is very warm. However, just the idea that it could hit 95 today and then be in the 30's for highs (in the Sierra and foothills) on Tuesday is pretty amazing. Blame that bi

After nearly 2 months of stable weather, a strong storm for this time of year, has moved into our area and is bringing some very welcome precipitation. Back in the beginning of April, our La Nina conditions died and moved into ENSO-neutral conditions. That brought on our very stable weather until this storm. Does this mean another weather pattern change could be upon us? In a word no. Our weather will quickly recover and become stable again gradually getting warmer as summer approaches. I believe this summer will bring above average temperatures. We cannot have below average precip because we average nearly no precip in the months of June, July and August combined. Many of the weather models have our ENSO-neutral (ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions possibly transitioning into El Nino by the September, October time frame. Why does this matter? Simple, El Nino will almost certainly bring us above average precip for the winter of 2012/2013. After going below normal for 2011