Grand Finale Starts - Now Lasts Through Next Weekend

We talked about two storms colliding to form one very powerful storm. We also talked about high pressure moving in after the weekend and a third, very cold storm for the weekend. Now, the third storm is going to collide with the first two and produce a huge weather event that will last through next weekend.

The wildcard is snow levels. They will definitely start very low and then rise rapidly as the southern storm infuses warm, subtropical air and moisture into the equation. Lots of it. Then, just as rapidly snow levels will plummet, all the way to the valley floor by next weekend.

Here is what the European model (most reliable) is seeing over the next 5 days. The further north the red lines, the warmer the air:

This evening (2/12), we are right on the proverbial Mason/Dixon line of warm and cold air. We believe snow levels will now start around 5,500 feet, which means all (or mostly) rain for the valley.

Tomorrow (2/13) at noon, warm air dominating tons of moisture and precip, snow levels shoot up to 7,000 feet or higher, rain spills into the valley and even the foothills.

Thursday (2/14) at noon, snow levels shoot up to 8,000 or perhaps even 9,000 feet, with very heavy precip. Take notice to the low pressure system to our north and west.

Friday (2/15) late morning, Low pressure comes screaming out of the north. Temperatures and snow levels begin to plummet back to around 6,000 feet.

Saturday Afternoon (2/16), Cold front has moved through, snow levels plummet all the way to the valley floor, however significant shadowing could take place. We are still not sure if this turns into a storm similar to last Sunday or the thing fizzles out.

We will know more about the weekend snow storm, or lack thereof, in the coming days. We are forecasting in the neighborhood of 4-7 inches of liquid precip for the Sierra, with heavier amounts on the west side of the lake. Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe could pick up another 4 feet or more, however there is a chance of rain that could cover the entire mountain. In any event, we see Mt. Rose at it's season average for snow fall by week's end ... with 2 1/2 months remaining in the season.

Stay Tuned ...