High Pressure Remains in Control, but for How Long?
High Pressure remains in control. However, we are expecting a major pattern change to take shape about mid-week.
We have been tracking this change for quite some time, and finally, it is knocking on the door.
If you have enjoyed the beautiful late November early December weather ... it may be quite some time before we see 60's again.
Here is our current pattern with 2 blocking highs and storms squeezing through into Northern Washington / Southern BC.
All of this is going to change. Around Wednesday afternoon a major cold front will begin to move into the area. Our temps will go from 60's down to low 40's in a hurry. Best of all, the inversions which have been in place for some time will be pushed out allowing much cooler air for the mountains and the snowmaking machines.
An eastern slider event will push down the leeward side of the Sierra and could bring some much needed snow. Probably no more than 6 inches, but we will take it. This cold front will change everything as our pattern will go from warm and dry to cold and cloudy.
Then, around a week from Monday, there will be a huge dip in the jet and that will usher what looks to be a moderate weather event.
We expect this pattern to continue for quite some time as a series of large storms are forming in the Gulf of Alaska, dropping south and pulling up warm, moist air from the sub-tropics. That is a perfect formula for a major Sierra event.
We love to see that high pressure ridge shoved out to sea between 140 and 150w. That allows storms to drop down into our area. As that ridge slides slightly north, that should open the major storm door.
Of course this is still quite a ways out, but we talked about this storm for the 12th nearly a month ago and it has held together pretty well. In addition, both medium range models are nearly identical on this prediction so our confidence is high.
Right now we will take what we can get. The 30-day models are not picking up on the pattern change that is the only thing holding us back right now. Of course we know who is in charge: NOT US.
If you want to know when Rose is opening, the best place to find out is from my good friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose.
Stay Tuned ...