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Showing posts from July, 2012

El Nino is Coming But When?

First let's talk about the significance of El Nino; El Nino winters almost certainly are average to significantly above average for the Sierra Nevada mountains around Lake Tahoe. After last winter (or lack thereof), El Nino would be a welcome site. El Nino is warming surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific waters. Forecasters who want an early jump on how the winter will shape up usually start with the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Currently we are in a neutral ENSO. I believe that is changing as I write this. There are many indicators that things are radically different than last year ... some scientific (like ocean temperatures) and some not so scientific. Last year I mentioned that many forecasters saw wet early winter for our area. I did not climb on that bandwagon. We moved into a strong La Nina early on and that more times than not means below average precip. The previous winter meant that La Nina brought giant storms and well above average precip ... so many s…