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Showing posts from March, 2015

Is it too late for a change in the Weather Pattern?

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Both EC and GFS weather models are suggesting a major spring storm could hit the Tahoe area in a little more than a week. Both models are suggesting that our first decent storm cycle in over a month is on the way for the last week of skiing at most of the Tahoe resorts.

This is not, by any means, unprecedented. In fact, this has been one of the worst springs in recent memory for storms. Large April storms are the rule not the exception. Most years are good for at least one and if you believe the weather models, a storm could be on the way.

Here is a look at the EC model forecast for the 7th of April:



The GFS model is showing a remarkably similar forecast. Here is a look at the precip potential for this storm:


Interestingly enough, the GFS has a series of storms coming in starting early next weekend and getting progressively stronger.

These models have been teasing us all year with storms that do not live up to their potential. Under achieving storms, so beware.

It is never too late fo…

Possible Snow For Early Monday

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A weak storm will gain some strength, come down from the north and should leave the Tahoe area with some accumulating snow. However, there will be a rain shadow at the crest which will limit accumulation in the Carson range.

Here is a look at the forecast for very early Monday morning:


Here is a look at the precip forecast. Most of the precip stays west of the Sierra:


I am not seeing any weather anomalies headed our and we should move to dry pattern starting Tuesday afternoon. The Western Crest of the Sierra could pick up 6-12 inches by Tuesday afternoon while the Carson range will be limited to 1-4 inches.

Stay Tuned ...

Weak Storms Continue

If you read my last post, you were disappointed with the storm that passed through our area yesterday. The storms are just too weak to cause much havoc, which is not totally unusual for this time of year. However, I know I am beating a dead horse, we are so due that I have been fully expecting something extraordinary.

Well folks, it does not look like it is in the cards. There are a few very weak disturbances that will pass through in the next 10 days, but nothing much.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, the weather has been very difficult to forecast these last few years. Oftentimes these weak storms can pick up some moisture or get blocked out by something thousands of miles away, and then everything can change. So let's hope that happens. If it does, you will know ahead of time.

Stay Tuned ...

Storm Cycle Could Start Up Again Around the 11th of March

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I am seeing indications that a new storm cycle could crank up again around the 11th of March. Both the EC and GFS models are forecasting a decent storm heading our way in about a week. That could possibly usher in about 5-7 days of stormy weather.

Here is the EC forecast for the 11th of March:



I know this does not look that impressive, but the models have been going back and forth on just how large a series of storms will be, starting around the 12th. The GFS has been hinting a a much larger storm for our area around the 15th.

Unfortunately, the models have not been able to stick with a forecast on a consistent basis. I thought I would put this out there. I will continue to track this possible event and report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...