Showing posts from December, 2022

Pattern to Remain Active Through Mid-January

We are in a very active, wet weather pattern. All indications are that this pattern will remain active through at least the middle of January. We are on the cusp of a huge, wet and warm storm moving into the Tahoe Area. This storm has a sub-tropical moisture tap that is very powerful and is moving very warm and humid air into the Tahoe region and driving snow levels up to around 10,000 feet.  However, those levels will fall quickly to around 8,000 feet by Friday night (12/30). Eventually, they will drop down to around 6,500 feet. By then most of the moisture will have moved on. Here is a look at the forecast for Saturday afternoon: We are then looking at a much cooler but also a much weaker system for the 2nd of January: This system breaks up as it hits the Sierra. I expect at most just a few inches of snow for Mt. Rose. Then, another very warm and wet system moves into the Sierra on Wednesday the 4th: This system will stick around and be reenergized through the 8th of January. I bel

Massive Pattern Change Will Bring Heavy Rain to Valleys and Deep Snow to Upper Elevations

Merry Christmas to all! I hope you are having a wonderful holiday season.  If you caught our last post, we have a huge pattern change and it is knocking on the door. Before we get to the timing and snow levels I thought it prudent to show the precip forecast for the next 10 days: We are looking at 12-16 inches of liquid for all the mountains around Lake Tahoe. Just South of the lake, they are going to get buried in the upper elevations. Add this to our already healthy snowpack and you see why averages do matter! Meanwhile, many valley locations will see 5+ inches of rain over the next 10 days. Storm 1 (Tuesday 12/27 @ 4am) This storm is packing a subtropical moisture tap and will be the warmest of the storms with snow levels starting out at 10,000 and dropping through the event. The event will last 20-24 hours and by the end, it will be all snow down to 7,000 feet.  Storm 2 (Thursday 12/29 @ 6am) The next event in the series is actually two storms. This will be another warm event and w

Not a Carbon Copy of Last Year

I have been hearing about all the December snow and am continually reminded that the spigot shutoff for a few months after December, last year. That is not happening this year. First, we have a couple of near misses that will produce some precipitation for the Sierra starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. I do not expect any major storm from this system for Tahoe. The same cannot be said for the Pacific NW as they will get a blast from this one.  Then, next Tuesday (12/27) our pattern changes. A very warm storm will pick up a weak sub-tropical moisture tap and bring rain and snow to the Sierra. Folks, this one could rain to very high elevations (9,000 feet) as the air is very warm. You have to go up to BC to find some colder air. Then, late on Wednesday the 28th of December another system drops in from the north. This will still be a very warm system, but nothing like the previous storm and hopefully will bring all snow to Slide Mountain, although very wet, heavy snow. A thir

Tahoe Will be Dry Through Christmas

After nearly 10 feet of snow at Mt. Rose in the last 10 days, things are going to dry out as a ridge of high pressure will set up just off the Pacific NW and block anything trying to get into us. There is a slight chance of a storm making it through around the 22nd or 23rd, however right now that storm looks to be heading north of Tahoe. Here is the precip forecast for the next 15 days: This may not be a bad thing for the resorts. If anybody remembers what Mt. Rose Highway looked like last Christmas with many of our western neighbors deciding they could drive that road in a blizzard and DOT having to shut it down just to get our friends out of the ditches. This should be a boom to the economy of the entire area.  The storms will return, trust me. Ma Nature has a way of deciding when, so nothing is carved in stone. Stay Tuned...

Weather Pattern to Remain Very Active

  We are tracking a major storm which will start on Thursday (12/8) and last through the weekend. This storm also has a significant moisture tap especially this weekend. The above forecast is for 10am on Saturday (12/10) morning.  The potential of this storm is greater than what we saw last week, where nearly 4 feet of snow fell on Slide Mountain. Here is the precipitation forecast for for the next week: We are looking at another 3-6 feet for Slide Mountain.  Stay Tuned ...

Next Storm Up

Our next storm should begin to make its presence felt tomorrow (12/3) morning. This storm should produce another 1-2 feet of snow for the Carson Range. It has the potential to be more, but right now we are holding off on a huge event. It will linger through Monday but most of the damage will be done on Sunday. We will receive a bit of a reprieve until at least next Friday. I say "at least" because the EC weather model is forecasting high pressure to move in as a blocking ridge which will send storms north. However, the GFS has another storm coming in on Friday (12/9). Truth be told, the EC weather model is usually more accurate. Looking a bit further out, out next weather maker will be coming in around the 13th of December, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Stay Tuned ...