Posts

Showing posts from December, 2020

Active Weather Pattern to Continue into January; Major Storm for January 3rd?

Image
 We are tracking a couple of storms and a very active weather pattern. The first storm should produce 4-8 inches of snow for the Carson Range starting very early on New Years Eve. This will be a fast moving storm. What we are really tracking is that storm out in the Pacific. That storm is going to shove the ridge of high  pressure south and flatten it. That will allow the chance for a major snow event here in Tahoe. The models are in pretty good alignment for a major storm to hit our are around the 3rd of January: Much of this depends on how far north the storm tracks, but we are keeping our eye on this one as another storm will move in right on it's heels and could produce another major snow event. Combined, this could be the event we have been waiting for. Here is a look at the January 5th forecast: And the January 7th Forecast: Notice the flat ridge of high pressure well to our south. Also notice the sub-tropical moisture connection. We do not want to get too far ahead of oursel

Snow Starts Tomorrow; Last Through the New Year and Beyond

Image
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year to all! Our pattern change is really starting to take hold. We have a series of storms coming to Tahoe that will begin tomorrow and last through at least the 3rd of January with few breaks in between. Like old times! Tomorrow's storm is shaping nicely: The next storm we had coming in on the 28th. However, the models are showing that storm actually moving south into So Cal, very un La Nina like. However it will deliver some very beneficial moisture down there where they need it. The next storm will begin to effect our weather around the 29th of December. This is a complex storm with cold air from the north and moist, sub-tropical air from the south. We like that combination. This storm is going to effect nearly the entire west coast. One thing you will not see in these charts is the ridge of high pressure which tends to setup off the west coast and push storms north. Finally, you can see the storm in the western Pacific. That too will

Near Misses then Christmas Day Storm

Image
Our weather pattern continues to be active. As high pressures keeps storms north of us, a few of those storms will give us glancing blows. Then on Christmas day, the chance exists for a decent storm. To this point, we have not seen a giant La Nina storm, but we believe that it is coming, probably in January. Here is one of those near misses as a storm delivers us a glancing blow on late Monday / Early Tuesday (12/21), the NWS is more impressed with this storm than we are, so the chance does exist for some accumulation. From what we are seeing, just a few inches of mountain snow at best as the cold front drops temps: Notice the blocking ridge of high pressure. That is going to keep the storms north of us. However, that ridge is going to get knocked south and severely flattened. This will allow storms to drop south and into the Tahoe area. The first of those storms will arrive around Christmas Eve and last through Christmas day: You can see another storm right on the heels of the Christm

Pattern Changed; Next Storm Up

Image
Our weather pattern has taken an about face. The next storm in the series comes in very early Thursday morning. We are expecting another foot of snow for Mt. Rose from this storm as well. These are smaller storms that simply are not indicative of La Nina. Meanwhile our ridge of high pressure is being bounced all over the Pacific. That makes the models change their mind quite frequently. There are still a series of storms stacked up in the Pacific. The models are NOT showing any storms (after Thursday) hitting the Tahoe area until around Christmas. We do not believe that. We think this pattern will continue. For now, this next storm and the past storm should greatly improve skiing conditions. Stay tuned ...

Pattern Change Starts This Weekend

Image
 The pattern change that we have been talking about for the last 3 weeks is finally upon us. We have a series of storms heading to Tahoe. The question that remains; how much snow will these storms bring us? We hope to answer that question. Right now the models are at odds with one another. What does that mean? That means that our confidence of a major weather event over the weekend is not as high as we would like. In fact, the GFS model, has backed off completely on a storm hitting this weekend. It is calling for a glancing blow. The European model, which is more accurate in our opinion, is calling for a moderate snow event for the Tahoe area: The above chart is the forecast for Sunday afternoon as seen through the EC weather model. This should bring some very beneficial snow to Tahoe, but not what we were looking for. The NAM or North American Model, is in agreement with the European model. (Sorry for the confusion) We have a very unstable pattern that we are moving into, so I expect

As Ridge Moves West Expect Major Pattern Change

Image
 The models have been pretty consistent these past few days. Somewhere around the 13th of this month, about a week from today, we expect our blocking ridge of high pressure to move south and west. That will open a storm door and at least for now, it looks like the storms are going to come right in! As with most pattern changes, the storms will start fairly weak and become progressively much stronger. Remember the days when the week of Christmas brought powerful storms into the Tahoe area. Well if things hold together, we are going to have a very stormy several weeks leading up to Christmas. Here is a look at the forecast for the morning of Monday December 14th: This is the weakest storm in the bunch, but notice how the ridge of high pressure is getting pushed south and west! That is very good news. A very large storm is brewing in the Gulf of Alaska. It begins to further flatten the ridge which opens the storm door even further, more very good news. As this very powerful storm pushes e

Pattern Change Could Take Place in 10-12 Days

Image
High Pressure off the West Coast will continue to dominate our weather for at least the next 10 days. However we are seeing the possibility of a pattern change around the 12th of December. Here is what we are up against: The ridge of high pressure is strategically located to block any moisture and keep our temperatures well above normal; a double whammy preventing storms to enter our area and the resorts from making snow.  However, not all is lost. In fact, most Tahoe areas are open and skiing is good for the most part.  We are seeing a pattern change that could arrive in the nick of time: Notice the new location of the ridge of high pressure. That should open a door for storms to make it into our area and if you believe the GFS weather model, a series of storms will slip through that door and bring much needed precip to Tahoe sometime between the 12th - 16th of December. Obviously that is quite a few days in the future and we will need to keep a close on this, but for those who prefer