Posts

Showing posts from November, 2018

Storms Update; Epic December in Store?

Image
After a very disappointing performance by the snow gods last week, we are on the eve of several storms for this week.

The first of those storms arrives tomorrow (11/27) late afternoon:


Although the models have this storm weakening as it makes land, it does pick up some sub-tropical moisture, which is revealing for the next storm. This first storm will hit in several waves, with snow levels starting around 7,500-8,000 feet and falling to around 6,000 feet as the storm passes through.

The second storm has the most potential and the NWS is calling for a major snow event above 7,000 feet. Generally when they do this, it happens, they are the experts after all.

The 2nd, in our series of storms, arrives late Wednesday night from the Southwest. This storm will bring down some cooler air and I am confident this one will be all snow for Mt. Rose. The other ski areas may start with rain at their lowest elevations, but this storm will fall well below lake level and should be very beneficial for …

Storm Door to Remain Wide Open

Image
Another storm is poised to hit the Tahoe Area today and should get cranking this afternoon. This storm will pull sub-tropical moisture from the south, which will raise snow levels to 8,000 feet or higher.



After a short break, the storms return on Tuesday and should last through Thursday and even into Friday. Here is a look at the peak of next week's storms late Wednesday night (11/28):


Snow levels next week will probably be 7,000 feet or lower, but we will get a better indication in a few days.

After another short break, a large storm moves into the Pacific NW and will potentially bring a major weather event to Tahoe. Right now the models have the bulk of the energy staying north, but if that storm shifts just a bit south, we could be talking about a real Sierra Blizzard event. Here is what things may look like Saturday December 1st. Regardless, this storm will bring additional heavy snow to the region:


So the total precip outlook for the next week or so looks like this:


The preci…

Two Storms Will Bring Moderate Snow to Sierra and Carson Range

Image
Two well advertised storms (we started talking about these nearly 4 weeks ago) are poised to hit the Sierra and Carson Range. A large storm, that we talked about 2 weeks ago, could be on tap for a week from Thanksgiving.

Here are the details:

Tomorrow 4:00 pm




Friday 4:00 am



This should be all snow for Mt. Rose at 8,200. The bulk of the precip will see a snow level from 7,000 to 7,500. As the cold fronts move through those levels will drop to around 6,000 feet. The professionals over at the NWS believe the storm on tap for tomorrow will be the bigger producer. I think the storm for Friday could match tomorrow's or even exceed it. I was concerned about trajectory and a shadow effect. But right now things look good for the Carson range to pick up 18-36 inches by Sunday morning.

This pattern is showing no signs of stopping. Next week I will talk about the ridge getting thrown around, but for now  that storm we talked about a couple of posts ago looks good for the 29th:


Add up the 3 stor…

As Ridge Moves West, Storm Door Opens. Winter Starts Next Week.

Image
If you have read any of our recent posts, you know that we are forecasting our persistent ridge in the Jet to move west and get out of the way of a series of storms. We have been guessing the timing anywhere from the 18th to the 29th. Well it looks like on the 21st, our first storm will drop down from the north, pick up ample moisture from the south and kickoff winter, perhaps just in time for Thanksgiving weekend skiing! This will be the first in a series of storms that should stick around for a while. We are confidently counting three storms and are not looking out past that third storm.

Here is the timing as of now, of course subject to minor changes:

Wednesday November 21st at 10:00pm

Friday November 23rd at 4:00am


Saturday November 24th 4:00pm

Obviously, we are still a ways out so the timing is subject to change. But barring any unforeseen event, we should be looking at a very snowy Thanksgiving holiday.
With any luck, these storms will put out the fires that have been burning in Ca…

When Will it Snow?

Image
High Pressure is dominating our weather. The ridge of high pressure to our west has done some dancing, but for the most part is blocking any moisture from getting into our area. In our last post we forecast that will change around the 18th - 20th. It does look like our ridge will begin to see some movement and a storm will probably just graze our area. However, toward the end of the month we are seeing major movement of the ridge and possibly a large storm could be headed our way. About Time!

First here is a look at where we are today:


Notice as our ridge moves north, our weather warms. Expect warmer conditions over the course of the next week or so. This ridge is literally blocking 90% of the North American coast.

We are seeing on several different models a break down of the ridge as it moves out to sea and allows storms to move in. Here is a forecast for the 18th:


As the ridge moves out to sea, the storm door will open for our area. The first in a what should be a series of storms w…