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Showing posts from November, 2010

Storm For Tomorrow Update

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The storm for tomorrow will reach the Sierra by late morning and should dump about another foot or so of snow on the High Sierra with lesser amounts at lake level (3-6 inches). Mt. Rose should receive between 6-12 inches to cover up some of those bare spots. The NWS is talking about a chance for 1/4 inch of liquid precip in some parts of the leeward valley's. That means this storm will likely have no affect on Reno and Carson City. However, this will affect driving over the mountain passes, but everything should be cleared out by Sunday afternoon and travel should be pretty good.

For the powder hounds out there, Sunday morning may be the best time to hit the resorts as the storm should have a greater affect late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Here is a quick peak at total, liquid precip for the storm:



Looking ahead, EC has another storm coming in next weekend that I will track. For next week, a few short waves may affect the area, but otherwise dry conditions will persi…

Weekend Storm Update

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I will rarely post current conditions, but the following map shows what is going on now and what we can expect for this weekend:


Right Now
Currently there is a very deep low pressure system moving inland through the state of Oregon. This low is going to cause havoc through the central and northern Rockie Mountains with blizzard warnings posted for Salt Lake City and many other areas of Idaho, Utah and Montana. Behind the front is a short wave of precipitation with very cold air. That has already begun to dump very heavy snow in the Sierra and will spill over and cause near white out conditions in Reno, especially west of 395. Be aware, this should occur around 9-11am, so you may want to be off the roads!

Thursday and Friday
The high pressure system off the California coast will be in control and bring rapidly clearing skies. However, the cold air will be trapped in the valley and this will result in deep temperature inversions. Expect the higher elevations to be much warmer as the cold …

Strong, Cold Inside Slider for Tuesday

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More heavy snow coming to the Sierra tonight through Tuesday when an inside slider drops down from Oregon. The models are in agreement that the Sierra will pick up an additional 1-2 feet of snow. The NWS service has posted winter storm warnings for the entire Lake Tahoe Area. With this storm comes a very cold, Arctic air mass that should bring some of the coldest temps we have seen in quite some time to the area. Especially the valley floors. The cold air will be trapped by the sourrounding mountains as a high pressure ridge moves in for Wednesday-Friday. This will cause temperature inversions. The lowest parts of the valley will see below zero temperatures on Wednesday night.

Here is a GFS look for Tuesday late morning:



It is my understanding that the good folks up at Mt. Rose are working very hard to open the NW lift in time for Thanksgiving. With the new snow on the way through Tuesday, I am guessing that Rose will be open top to bottom on the Rose side for Thanksgiving, so get up …

Quick Storm Update

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This storm continues to pound the region and will continue, on and off, through Wednesday morning. A very strong Arctic cold front will move into the area Tuesday through Wednesday and temps will plummet. We are talking below zero temps in the valleys for Wednesday night. Here is an udpated precip amount map:


Most of the Sierra is going to pick up around 4-5 inches of liquid precip by the time this is over. That translates to 30-80 inches of snow with the central Sierra Crest getting the most.

A very strong temperature inversion moves in for Thursday and Friday with mountain warming and very cold temps in the valleys. This is ahead of what looks like another decent system moving in for next weekend (See last post).

Stay Tuned ...

Storm Strengthens

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Storm Update
In what is typical La Nina fashion, the storm I have been discussing for the last couple of weeks has strengthened and is heading to Tahoe. This is an extremely deep low pressure system, especially for this early in the year. It is also a very cold storm. This storm formed in the Bering Sea, dropped into the Gulf of Alaska, and is now heading down the West Coast. As it approaches our area, it will tap into additional Pacific Moisture. It will rise into the Sierra, Condense and dump! There are several waves of snow associated with this massive storm. These waves will represent very heavy snow. The first wave should start up around 3:00am on Saturday and last for about 12 hours. Then we will get a brief reprieve before another short wave shows up around 10:00pm on Saturday Night and should last through Sunday morning. From there, we can expect light to moderate snow to last through Monday morning. I will stay with my snow total amounts of 12 days ago, 2-4 feet in the Sierra…

Enjoy The Nice Weather, It is coming To an End

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The weather is going to be beautiful for the next 4-5 days. Then what is shaping up will be a decent storm toward the end of next weekend. In my last post, I talked about a larger storm coming in around the 22nd. Both the GFS and EC weather models are now talking about this storm more agressively. When the models align like this, they are normally very accurate. Before I was just overly optimistic about this system, I am now cautiously optimistic as some of the big long range forecasters are now also talking about this. How much and when remain questions, but suffice it to say, this should be the seasons first large storm. The EC weather model has about 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid precip blanketing all of the Lake Tahoe area. The system will have some very cold air associated with it so snow levels should be fairly low, starting at 7,500 and moving down as the storm hits. Here is what EC is saying for total precip through the 23rd:


This should translate into 2-4 feet of snow for the moun…

Stable Weather for 5-8 Days and Then Return to Stormy Pattern

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Inside slider slid right down the eastern Sierra and is bringing more cold air with it. You were warned. Tonight should be very cold.

A giant ridge of high pressue will move into our area tomorrow and will not be moved until Monday or Tuesday of next week. This will bring a gradual warming trend with highs in the upper 50's by early next week.

Once the ridge is moved out, indications are that we will return to another stormy pattern. GFS is calling for a large storm to slam our area on the 22nd of November, here is a look:


I am pretty sure that I am the only idiot who is trying to predict a big storm 12 days down the road, but hey, I am not paid for this so take this with a grain of salt. In addition, I am not predicting this, the GFS weather model is. Also, the EC weather model has a large storm forming around the same time and coming into our area, although the EC is not as aggressive as GFS. One last reason why I brought up this storm, the PNA is going negative right around th…

Today's Storm Strengthens, Wednesdays Get Colder

A large area of precipitation will move further west than I anticipated with my last post. This is really good news as we can expect 1-3 feet of snow at Mt. Rose by Tuesday Morning. Wednesday's storm, however, is losing moisture and gaining really cold air. The models are pretty much in agreement that we will not get a major precip event, but look for the bitter cold air to come in that I talked about in my last post. Amazing how fast the weather can change this time of year, so let's not count out Wednesday quite yet.

After Wednesday we will become dry and temps will rebound, but only slightly. Looking way ahead, I see a stormy unstable period for 10 days, starting next Sunday.

Stay Tuned ...

Three Storms, Each Getting Progressively Stronger

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Two Storms This Weekend
I am tracking 3 storms right now that should play a significant role on our weather and more importantly what happens up in the mountains. The first storm is coming in Saturday night. This is a splitter and does not have a ton of moisture associated with it. However, right behind that storm, for Sunday night a much larger storm moves into our area that should bring some reasonable amounts of snow above 8,000 feet. Here is a look at the total precipitation through Monday afternoon:


If these systems hold together, the western Sierra around Tahoe could pick up 1-2 feet of snow, with about half that for the eastern shore (Mt. Rose).

Much Cooler Next Week
Starting Monday and lasting for at least a week our temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 40's for the valley. The High Sierra will see below zero readings in some spots. This will bring snow levels down just in time for what appears to be a much larger storm that should track right through T…