Showing posts from 2020

Short Term Pattern Change to aid Fire Fighters

A low pressure system will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific NW and and extreme Northern California. This system will produce cooler, more humid air along with some much needed precip:
The timing remains around the 10th of October.Unfortunately, high pressure will move in on the heels of this system and dominate our weather for at least another week.We are seeing what could be a major pattern change starting around the 21st of October, especially for the Pacific NW as storms are growing in size as we move into the rainy season:
The beauty of La Nina is that it can produce much stronger storms. We will need that to push out our blocking ridge.
Stay Tuned ...

Will Ma Nature Help with the Fires? La Nina Winter

As our extremely dry pattern continues, there is some relief in sight, especially for Oregon, Washington and Northern California.We are tracking the season's first decent storm, which is prepared to come ashore around the 9th-11th of October. I know, that is a very long time from now, but this is the first sign that perhaps winter will start and fire season will wind up.Here is a look at the forecast from the 10th of October:
With a ridge of high pressure to south blocking any sub-tropical moisture tap, we will not see copious amounts of precip. However, this storm is born in the north and will usher in much cooler and more humid air, which should give our heroic fire fighters a much better chance at containment. We do see 1-2 inches of liquid precip for areas of Northern California, Oregon and Washington. Cross your fingers that they are the right areas as heavy precip will be scattered.La Nina - It is a CertaintyWe will officially be in a La Nina winter this year. La Nina means …

Western Fire Relief: None in Sight

With fires blazing, we have looked a month into the weather future to find some potential relief. Unfortunately, this looks to be a very slow start to the fall/winter season for both the Sierra and Cascade Ranges.For Reno/Tahoe, the winds are going to shift from the west again, which will put us back in the smoke. However, the easterly flow that we have been enjoying this week, which blows the smoke into the Bay Area, will return from time to time.Eventually Ma Nature will crank up that storm machine and put out some of these massive fires. We generally do have several storms in the California Sierra in September and we are still in the first week. For the Cascade Range, they usually get going in September prior to the Sierra. We look for some storms to begin showing up and will keep a close eye on this.Here is the issue:
We have a massive ridge of high pressure which is dominating the entire USA West Coast. Storms are going over or under the ridge. We expect that to move further south…

Two More Days of Heat, then more Seasonal Temperatures

What a crazy year it has been thus far. Really just goes to show who is in charge and it aint us!

With record breaking heat overwhelming our area and much of the west, a cold front will drop out of the north and bring our temps back under control. Saturday will bring clouds and wind ... there is even a chance of some rain. here is a look at the forecast for 11:00 am on Saturday:

Temps will not get out of the 60's on Saturday but will quickly recover to a very pleasant mid-70's through most of next week.

I would be remiss not to compliment my good friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose. If you have been keeping up with his posts, they have been a terrific combination of back country conditions, ski area openings and current events. Imagine the casinos being safe enough to open, but not Mt. Whitney?? Huh? I guess the virus lives well at 15,000 feet with average wind speeds of 30 mph. Who'd have thunk that?

Looking ahead to next winter; we are seeing pretty much neutral ENSO wit…

Late Season Winter Storm Knocking on Door

Under normal circumstances, we would be thrilled by a late season winter storm showing up this weekend. However, it seems the ski gods are rubbing things in our face. Of course they are not, and late season moisture is very beneficial for filling reservoirs and aquifers. However, doesn't it seem ironic that the last 2+ months of the ski season, we got very little precip. Since the ski areas closed, it has been snowing almost non-stop in the Sierra. Funny world we live in.

This storm is already impacting the Western Sierra and will show up in our area late this afternoon with the peak of the storm not coming until Sunday afternoon:

We expect about 12-15 hours of heavy snow for the Sierra. However, like all late season storms, this will not hold together as it crosses the Western Crest. We expect 4-5 feet of snow on the crest and about half that for the Carson Range, about 2 feet. It will be a colder storm with snow levels hovering right at about Lake Level or a little higher (6,400…

Stormy Pattern to Continue, For the Next 15 Days ... At Least

We oftentimes suggest remedies to combat dry winter spells. For example, we have put out a call for everybody to wash their cars, surely that will bring in stormy weather. I toyed with the idea of turning on my irrigation system a few weeks back, that would change the pattern.

I think we have finally found the be all, end all, remedy; Close All the Ski Areas.

Since the highly questionable decision was made by the lawyers (See Unofficial Rose) to close down all the ski areas because of our litigious happy society, we have done an about face in the weather pattern that is rarely seen, even here. Coincidence? Probably, but let's keep this in mind if we need a proven drought buster.

We are tracking three more storms that are going to bring more snow and rain to the Sierra and state of California. These late season rains will oftentimes lead to a really nasty fire season, not to compound the many problems facing the state of California right now.

The first storm is just off the coast r…

As Weather Pattern Changes, Storms are Stacking Up

The long awaited weather pattern change has finally arrived and should usher out the ski season in fine fashion as the next 6 weeks looks really good. I would argue that the pattern started it's shift about a week or 2 ago as our ridge of high pressure started getting kicked around, something we had not seen much of in the last 2 months.

The current storm could possibly exceed our forecast of 3-6 feet for the Carson Range and will certainly exceed the 6 feet we forecast for the Western Crest. It has picked up a very nice moisture tap from the sub-tropics and is feeding that warm moist air into the cold trough which is now just off the coast and stalled.

Eventually this storm will move inland and pass almost right over Tahoe. It will continue to provide plenty of much needed moisture through Tuesday.

We are tracking at least 2 more storms that are eerily similar to this storm. The first of these storms we believe will move into our area sometime late next Saturday (March 21st). Tha…

A Week of Stormy Weather Starts Saturday

Several storms are going to join forces and produce near continuous mountain precip starting Saturday and lasing nearly a week. With the exception of the leading edge of the moisture, this should be all snow for all Tahoe resorts as temperatures will be well below average for the event.

Here is a look at late Saturday night during the peak of the first wave:

That low pressure system is going to move south and east. It will split and moisture will wrap around the Tahoe area until another low pressure system comes from the north on Thursday March 19th. During this period of time, we will see several waves of precip bringing much needed snow to the Sierra and Carson Range. How much is the big question. We are going out on a limb and predict in the neighborhood of 3-6 feet for the Carson Range with 6+ feet coming to the Western Sierra Crest.

Despite the peak of the storm season having passed, the potential does still exist for some very strong storms. This should usher in a change to our …

Cold Slider for Saturday; Several Warmer Systems on Horizon as Weather Pattern Changes

We usually do not waste your time talking about what is happening or what happened. But that last storm squeezed every ounce of moisture it had and seemed to dump it all on the Carson Range. We'll take it!

We have another very similar system on tap for Saturday, here is a look at very early Saturday morning as the system approaches. This is another slider, notice the area of low pressure to the east. Again, we could see more snow in some valley locations than we see on the western Sierra Crest.

The next system is a bit tricky. It is going to move down the coast, offshore, and then pull a u-turn and come back up the coast, on shore. Both GFS and EC are forecasting precip for Southern California. The EC is predicting significant precip for both Southern and Central California:

This begins to impact the area around the 10th March and will usher in a pattern change. Notice how warm the system is however. We could have rain to very high elevations. This is still a week out and the two …

Cold Slider to Produce Cold, Not Much Snow; Pattern Change 2nd Week in March?

A cold slider will slip down the leeward side of the Sierra and could produce more snow for the Nevada valleys than the Western Crest of the Sierra. I guess at this point we should be happy with any precipitation. We see this storm coming in late Saturday into Sunday. By Monday afternoon temperatures will recover and become seasonal to above average moving forward.

We are seeing at least the possibility of a pattern change around the 10th of March as a much larger storm could effect the area:

We are still a long way out on this one, but there could be a last ditch effort for winter to reappear in the mountains of Lake Tahoe.

Stay Tuned ...

No Major Pattern Changes in Foreseeable Future

TWB is a long range forecasting service. Unfortunately, we have to have something to forecast in order to blog. This is just a reminder to our loyal readers that we are still around, but Ma Nature is not cooperating.

We have been in an impudent pattern that brings 4-5 days of mild weather and then a dry cold front drops out of the north and we get cold for a 2-3 days. That is not going to change. Next weekend will bring us yet another cold front from the north. This system has very little moisture associated with it. It will then clear out and we will hit 4-5 days of seasonal to above average temperatures.

Here is the culprit. The ridge of high pressure is blocking the west coast and is moving, however slightly, north and south.

I glanced at the EC Monthly Control View and it is showing no precipitation for our area for the next 30 days, that is well into March.

Of course that could change quite quickly. Ironically, we have no idea what instigates this change, but it happens all the t…

Warm Storm, Then High Pressure Brings Indian Summer

In our last post we talked about this storm coming our way. Mt. Rose will be the winner as snow levels could approach 8,000 feet. We expect less than a foot. Snow levels will fall behind the front, but most of the precip will have already come through. This will be a rain event for the leeward valleys.

High Pressure will move into place around the middle of next week. With it will come unseasonable warm temperatures. I believe some valley locations could see 60 degrees or even warmer.

Here is a look at the ridge as it moves in and dominates our weather:

We are seeing no major pattern shift for at least the next 10 days.

Stay Tuned ...

Glancing Blows For the Next Week

We have several storms that will give us glancing blows but no major precip as they are directed north. There is a chance of a decent storm in about a week as both GFS and ECMWF models are hinting at a storm for next Monday.

After that it looks like ridge city as this storm cycle comes to an end.

We will post a little later on this week when we get a clearer picture of what is going to happen.

Stay Tuned ...

Storms Update and Timing

We have several storms poised to hit or hitting Tahoe right now. In addition, the ECMWF model is forecasting another major storm around the 22nd of this month.

The big event will be Thursday and will last throughout much of the day. This will be a 12-18 hour event as this storm will move through Tahoe rather quickly.

Thursday @ 10:00 am

Thursday @ 4:00 pm

Thursday @ 10:00pm

Snow Totals:

Sierra and Carson Range: 18-40 inches by Friday afternoon.
Leeward foothills: 6-12 inches by Friday afternoon
Leeward Valleys: 2-6 inches by Friday afternoon

In somwhat of a new development, the latest model run of the ECMWF has a major storm impacting Tahoe on the 22nd and 23rd of this month:

If this storm holds together it will be much warmer and much wetter. The GFS model is starting to show some signs of this happening as well.

Here is a look at the precip forecast for the next 10 days:

Stay Tuned ...

Expect Snowy, Windy Week, No Matter Where You Are

We have 3 storms that will have a major impact on Tahoe weather coming in the next week. The mid-week storm is a fairly rare type for Tahoe. However, even at this late date, the models are not in agreement on the amount of precip headed our way. The EC model is much more bullish on precip for the first two storms and the GFS has forecast more precip for storm three.

Storm Timing:
Late Monday, January 13th
Expect a major wind storm in the Sierra starting at noon Monday. The precip should roll in very late on Monday night and should last on/off through most of Tuesday. We expect 6 inches of snow for most of the Sierra including the Carson range out of this first storm. There is a big birthday celebration on Tuesday, that could be blown out, however the winds should begin to die down by noon on Tuesday so you never know.

Late Wednesday, January 15th
Ok, this is the granddaddy of them all, and I am not talking about the Rose Bowl. The NWS has called this storm the biggest of the season thus …

Pattern Change is Here; 3 Storms in Next 10 Days

The much anticipated pattern change that we have been talking about has finally arrived. There are 3 storms that should come into our area and deliver some much needed, fresh snow. Each storm will get progressively stronger.

For now, conditions are very firm and some rocks are beginning to peek through, I read a very interesting article over on Unofficial Rose as very dangerous conditions exist in the Mt. Rose Chutes, check out the picture posted there after a huge storm!

After several week waves roll in from the north and deliver a few inches of snow over the weekend, the first real storm should roll in here Monday night (1/13):

This is the weakest of the storms. The next storm, which is much stronger should come in next Wednesday after noon (1/15) and should last through at least Friday morning:

Next, the following Sunday (1/19),  see's the 3rd storm in the bunch roll in:

All told these three storms should produce significant precip and should be cold enough to bring snow levels…

Stubborn Ridge of High Pressure Will Continue to Shove Storms North, Pattern Change Imminent?

The pattern change we were looking for, will not materialize until at least the 10th of January. High Pressure is firmly in control and shoving any potential storms to our north:

A number of storms will try and come in, but will not make it. We are seeing the potential for a pattern change around the 10th of January, however.

Both the EC and GFS models have a storm coming through our area. After that, the storm door does appear to open. However, 7 days out has been quite unpredictable this year.

There are a number of indicators that suggest a series of storms are headed our way, perhaps starting as soon as the 10th of January. Here is a look that the EC weather model for the 11th, the GFS is saying the same thing:

When those two models agree, our confidence is much higher. Also, we like to look at the Pacific North American pattern chart. Generally, when that goes negative, we see storms move into the Tahoe area. Here is a look at the PNA:

Finally, a look at the monthly precip forecas…