Tahoe Weather Blog

 We are tracking a couple of storms and a very active weather pattern. The first storm should produce 4-8 inches of snow for the Carson Range starting very early on New Years Eve. This will be a fast moving storm. What we are really tracking is that storm out in the Pacific. That storm is going to shove the ridge of high  pressure south and flatten it. That will allow the chance for a major snow event here in Tahoe. The models are in pretty good alignment for a major storm to hit our are around the 3rd of January: Much of this depends on how far north the storm tracks, but we are keeping our eye on this one as another storm will move in right on it's heels and could produce another major snow event. Combined, this could be the event we have been waiting for. Here is a look at the January 5th forecast: And the January 7th Forecast: Notice the flat ridge of high pressure well to our south. Also notice the sub-tropical moisture connection. We do not want to get too far ahead of o...

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year to all! Our pattern change is really starting to take hold. We have a series of storms coming to Tahoe that will begin tomorrow and last through at least the 3rd of January with few breaks in between. Like old times! Tomorrow's storm is shaping nicely: The next storm we had coming in on the 28th. However, the models are showing that storm actually moving south into So Cal, very un La Nina like. However it will deliver some very beneficial moisture down there where they need it. The next storm will begin to effect our weather around the 29th of December. This is a complex storm with cold air from the north and moist, sub-tropical air from the south. We like that combination. This storm is going to effect nearly the entire west coast. One thing you will not see in these charts is the ridge of high pressure which tends to setup off the west coast and push storms north. Finally, you can see the storm in the western Pacific. That too will ...

Our weather pattern continues to be active. As high pressures keeps storms north of us, a few of those storms will give us glancing blows. Then on Christmas day, the chance exists for a decent storm. To this point, we have not seen a giant La Nina storm, but we believe that it is coming, probably in January. Here is one of those near misses as a storm delivers us a glancing blow on late Monday / Early Tuesday (12/21), the NWS is more impressed with this storm than we are, so the chance does exist for some accumulation. From what we are seeing, just a few inches of mountain snow at best as the cold front drops temps: Notice the blocking ridge of high pressure. That is going to keep the storms north of us. However, that ridge is going to get knocked south and severely flattened. This will allow storms to drop south and into the Tahoe area. The first of those storms will arrive around Christmas Eve and last through Christmas day: You can see another storm right on the heels of the Christm...

Our weather pattern has taken an about face. The next storm in the series comes in very early Thursday morning. We are expecting another foot of snow for Mt. Rose from this storm as well. These are smaller storms that simply are not indicative of La Nina. Meanwhile our ridge of high pressure is being bounced all over the Pacific. That makes the models change their mind quite frequently. There are still a series of storms stacked up in the Pacific. The models are NOT showing any storms (after Thursday) hitting the Tahoe area until around Christmas. We do not believe that. We think this pattern will continue. For now, this next storm and the past storm should greatly improve skiing conditions. Stay tuned ...

 The pattern change that we have been talking about for the last 3 weeks is finally upon us. We have a series of storms heading to Tahoe. The question that remains; how much snow will these storms bring us? We hope to answer that question. Right now the models are at odds with one another. What does that mean? That means that our confidence of a major weather event over the weekend is not as high as we would like. In fact, the GFS model, has backed off completely on a storm hitting this weekend. It is calling for a glancing blow. The European model, which is more accurate in our opinion, is calling for a moderate snow event for the Tahoe area: The above chart is the forecast for Sunday afternoon as seen through the EC weather model. This should bring some very beneficial snow to Tahoe, but not what we were looking for. The NAM or North American Model, is in agreement with the European model. (Sorry for the confusion) We have a very unstable pattern that we are moving into, so I exp...

 The models have been pretty consistent these past few days. Somewhere around the 13th of this month, about a week from today, we expect our blocking ridge of high pressure to move south and west. That will open a storm door and at least for now, it looks like the storms are going to come right in! As with most pattern changes, the storms will start fairly weak and become progressively much stronger. Remember the days when the week of Christmas brought powerful storms into the Tahoe area. Well if things hold together, we are going to have a very stormy several weeks leading up to Christmas. Here is a look at the forecast for the morning of Monday December 14th: This is the weakest storm in the bunch, but notice how the ridge of high pressure is getting pushed south and west! That is very good news. A very large storm is brewing in the Gulf of Alaska. It begins to further flatten the ridge which opens the storm door even further, more very good news. As this very powerful storm push...

High Pressure off the West Coast will continue to dominate our weather for at least the next 10 days. However we are seeing the possibility of a pattern change around the 12th of December. Here is what we are up against: The ridge of high pressure is strategically located to block any moisture and keep our temperatures well above normal; a double whammy preventing storms to enter our area and the resorts from making snow.  However, not all is lost. In fact, most Tahoe areas are open and skiing is good for the most part.  We are seeing a pattern change that could arrive in the nick of time: Notice the new location of the ridge of high pressure. That should open a door for storms to make it into our area and if you believe the GFS weather model, a series of storms will slip through that door and bring much needed precip to Tahoe sometime between the 12th - 16th of December. Obviously that is quite a few days in the future and we will need to keep a close on this, but for those w...

 We are seeing a massive blocking ridge of high pressure setting up just off the West Coast: This ridge of high pressure is going to settle in, push all storms well north of Tahoe and stay there through at least the first week in December. Both the GFS and EC weather models are in agreement, which means the likelihood of this happening is high. Here is a wider look as the ridge in the jet stream sets up: This is a classic La Nina pattern. Having said that, the models have been really struggling with anything more than a few days out this year, so hope is not completely lost. Currently the long range models are showing a sign of the ridge breaking down around the 10th of December. All we can do between now and then is hope that Ma Nature flexes her ample muscles and returns us to the snow. Similar to the weather shutting down, rumor has it that Nevada may be shutting down as well. We certainly hope not as checking the hospital data in both Washoe and Clark counties we are seeing the...

 We continue to see a very active weather pattern for the next several weeks. The models have consolidated. They are backing off on the precip amounts but not by much. 11/17 - 11:00 PM This first storm now finds the EC model a bit more bullish. It is born in the north, is a warmer storm that will pull up sub-tropical moisture from the south. The redlines and blue lines signify the cold front. The further north the redlines are, the warmer the storm. We are guessing around 6,500 to 7,000 feet. So this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. Our best guess is around 12-18 inches. 11/24 A series of smaller events will keep our weather unstable. Then on the 24th or thereabouts, the next storm will arrive. This is a smaller storm, but we have seen this pattern before. We believe this storm is wolf in sheep's clothing and could produce another foot of snow. The final storm we are tracking will arrive around the 28th. This is a much larger storm. We still do not have a clear picture of what this w...

This last storm was an overachiever and ushered in a major pattern change. Fairly typical for this area; a single storm, in one day, changes our weather from summer to winter for several months. We are just over a month away from the Winter Solstice and winter has finally arrived. If you read our last post, we were tracking 3 storms. The models are consolidating and our confidence of a major winter event, is now very high. The only real change is the timing. It would appear that everything will arrive about a day sooner than expected. First, here is the GFS precip forecast for the next 2 weeks: The Tahoe area looks very much like 8-12 inches of liquid precip in the next 2 weeks. The GFS is more bullish than the EC, but the EC is coming around. These storms will be warmer and will produce a better base than what we saw this weekend. We can expect the next storm to show up late Friday November 13th. That will be a fast moving storm. Close on it's heels is another storm for the 16th. ...

 As we suspected, a slight change in the Jet and we could see winter with snow in our mountains, sooner rather than later. We are beginning to see that change now and if you believe the GFS weather model,  a series of storms are poised to hit our area starting around 14th of this month. The key is the high pressure ridge in the jet is now forecast to move quite a bit to the west, that should open the storm door. We are currently tracking 3 storms, each getting progressively more intense: 11/14/2020 Notice how far west the ridge of high pressure has moved. That opens a wide storm door. What we are not seeing is a big moisture tap to the south ... not yet. 11/18/2020 Our Ridge stays to the west, keeping the storm door open. La Nina storms can be much larger and despite these being early season storms, they are quite powerful. 11/20/2020 This storm looks to be the king. In true La Nina fashion, it will have the greatest effect on Northern California and the Pacific NW. Notice the...

Before we predict what you will see in the 2020, 2021 winter season, let's get one thing clear; Mother Nature is in charge of this ship. We see some patterns that could repeat and we make our predictions based on those historical patterns. We are already beginning to see a pattern shift. In simple terms, we are moving into our wet season. That is good news because this was one of the driest summer/falls in recent memories. Below is a precip chart for this winter season provided by NOAA. The white represents average precip. We agree for the most part with this chart. Tahoe is right on the border of drier than average. Southern California will continue to see dry conditions and the drought mongers will have something to talk about after several years of above average precip. We are looking at Tahoe getting below normal precip. Possibly quite a bit below normal. Those averages have stayed consistent for many decades and quite simply we are due for another dry year. Couple that with La...

 A low pressure system will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific NW and and extreme Northern California. This system will produce cooler, more humid air along with some much needed precip: The timing remains around the 10th of October. Unfortunately, high pressure will move in on the heels of this system and dominate our weather for at least another week. We are seeing what could be a major pattern change starting around the 21st of October, especially for the Pacific NW as storms are growing in size as we move into the rainy season: The beauty of La Nina is that it can produce much stronger storms. We will need that to push out our blocking ridge. Stay Tuned ...

 As our extremely dry pattern continues, there is some relief in sight, especially for Oregon, Washington and Northern California. We are tracking the season's first decent storm, which is prepared to come ashore around the 9th-11th of October. I know, that is a very long time from now, but this is the first sign that perhaps winter will start and fire season will wind up. Here is a look at the forecast from the 10th of October: With a ridge of high pressure to south blocking any sub-tropical moisture tap, we will not see copious amounts of precip. However, this storm is born in the north and will usher in much cooler and more humid air, which should give our heroic fire fighters a much better chance at containment. We do see 1-2 inches of liquid precip for areas of Northern California, Oregon and Washington. Cross your fingers that they are the right areas as heavy precip will be scattered. La Nina - It is a Certainty We will officially be in a La Nina winter this year. La Nina me...

With fires blazing, we have looked a month into the weather future to find some potential relief. Unfortunately, this looks to be a very slow start to the fall/winter season for both the Sierra and Cascade Ranges. For Reno/Tahoe, the winds are going to shift from the west again, which will put us back in the smoke. However, the easterly flow that we have been enjoying this week, which blows the smoke into the Bay Area, will return from time to time. Eventually Ma Nature will crank up that storm machine and put out some of these massive fires. We generally do have several storms in the California Sierra in September and we are still in the first week. For the Cascade Range, they usually get going in September prior to the Sierra. We look for some storms to begin showing up and will keep a close eye on this. Here is the issue: We have a massive ridge of high pressure which is dominating the entire USA West Coast. Storms are going over or under the ridge. We expect that to move further so...

What a crazy year it has been thus far. Really just goes to show who is in charge and it aint us! With record breaking heat overwhelming our area and much of the west, a cold front will drop out of the north and bring our temps back under control. Saturday will bring clouds and wind ... there is even a chance of some rain. here is a look at the forecast for 11:00 am on Saturday: Temps will not get out of the 60's on Saturday but will quickly recover to a very pleasant mid-70's through most of next week. I would be remiss not to compliment my good friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose . If you have been keeping up with his posts, they have been a terrific combination of back country conditions, ski area openings and current events. Imagine the casinos being safe enough to open, but not Mt. Whitney?? Huh? I guess the virus lives well at 15,000 feet with average wind speeds of 30 mph. Who'd have thunk that? Looking ahead to next winter; we are seeing pretty much neutr...

Under normal circumstances, we would be thrilled by a late season winter storm showing up this weekend. However, it seems the ski gods are rubbing things in our face. Of course they are not, and late season moisture is very beneficial for filling reservoirs and aquifers. However, doesn't it seem ironic that the last 2+ months of the ski season, we got very little precip. Since the ski areas closed, it has been snowing almost non-stop in the Sierra. Funny world we live in. This storm is already impacting the Western Sierra and will show up in our area late this afternoon with the peak of the storm not coming until Sunday afternoon: We expect about 12-15 hours of heavy snow for the Sierra. However, like all late season storms, this will not hold together as it crosses the Western Crest. We expect 4-5 feet of snow on the crest and about half that for the Carson Range, about 2 feet. It will be a colder storm with snow levels hovering right at about Lake Level or a little higher ...

We oftentimes suggest remedies to combat dry winter spells. For example, we have put out a call for everybody to wash their cars, surely that will bring in stormy weather. I toyed with the idea of turning on my irrigation system a few weeks back, that would change the pattern. I think we have finally found the be all, end all, remedy; Close All the Ski Areas. Since the highly questionable decision was made by the lawyers (See Unofficial Rose) to close down all the ski areas because of our litigious happy society, we have done an about face in the weather pattern that is rarely seen, even here. Coincidence? Probably, but let's keep this in mind if we need a proven drought buster. We are tracking three more storms that are going to bring more snow and rain to the Sierra and state of California. These late season rains will oftentimes lead to a really nasty fire season, not to compound the many problems facing the state of California right now. The first storm is just off the ...

The long awaited weather pattern change has finally arrived and should usher out the ski season in fine fashion as the next 6 weeks looks really good. I would argue that the pattern started it's shift about a week or 2 ago as our ridge of high pressure started getting kicked around, something we had not seen much of in the last 2 months. The current storm could possibly exceed our forecast of 3-6 feet for the Carson Range and will certainly exceed the 6 feet we forecast for the Western Crest. It has picked up a very nice moisture tap from the sub-tropics and is feeding that warm moist air into the cold trough which is now just off the coast and stalled. Eventually this storm will move inland and pass almost right over Tahoe. It will continue to provide plenty of much needed moisture through Tuesday. We are tracking at least 2 more storms that are eerily similar to this storm. The first of these storms we believe will move into our area sometime late next Saturday (March 21...

Several storms are going to join forces and produce near continuous mountain precip starting Saturday and lasing nearly a week. With the exception of the leading edge of the moisture, this should be all snow for all Tahoe resorts as temperatures will be well below average for the event. Here is a look at late Saturday night during the peak of the first wave: That low pressure system is going to move south and east. It will split and moisture will wrap around the Tahoe area until another low pressure system comes from the north on Thursday March 19th. During this period of time, we will see several waves of precip bringing much needed snow to the Sierra and Carson Range. How much is the big question. We are going out on a limb and predict in the neighborhood of 3-6 feet for the Carson Range with 6+ feet coming to the Western Sierra Crest. Despite the peak of the storm season having passed, the potential does still exist for some very strong storms. This should usher in a cha...