Showing posts from January, 2024

Series of Storms For Next 5-7 Days

 I hope you are enjoying the warm weather because it is not going to be around for long. We have a series of storms that are poised to hit the Tahoe area and bring all snow to Mt. Rose and mostly snow to the rest of the Tahoe Ski Resorts. The first storm hits tomorrow and will last through Thursday. Behind that storm is some very cold air. Our high temperatures will by 30 degrees cooler than today. Here is the forecast for early Thursday (2/1) morning: We were expecting that very cold air to make it down, but another storm, which will move in from the South will change that. Here is the forecast for Sunday morning: This truly is a collision of warm and cold air with plenty of moisture to work with. This storm will be around for about 24 hours. Behind it is more cool air that will stick around until the following weekend (2/10). After that we are looking for a warm up as high pressure moves in. Here is the precip forecast for the next 7-10 days: Typical El Nino, weaker and warmer storms

Will February Roar In Like a Lion?

We are now in a more typical El Nino pattern. As small waves of precip will continue through most of this week. We are looking for storms to continue to move further south, be strong enough to pull up sub-tropical moisture and cool enough to produce snow. Unfortunately, that is a rare combination with El Nino winters. Mostly, we can expect warmer temperatures as the storms approach. But, 2 out of 3 aint bad, right? Looking ahead we are seeing the possibility of a decent sized storm to develop toward the end of this month or the beginning of next month. Here is the forecast for the 31st of January. Remarkably, the long term models seem to mostly be in agreement about this event. Generally, that is a fairly reliable predictor. The above is the European model, here is the Canadian: Eerily similar. Both these models have this coming in as a very warm and slow moving storm. I believe we will have all snow up at Mt. Rose and snow levels will mostly hover around 7,000 for the majority of this

Storm Train to Continue; Season's First Big Storm This Weekend Into Next Week

Another fast moving, reasonably warm storm is knocking on the door. This storm will move through the area very rapidly and probably leave around 2-4 inches of very wet snow in the Carson Range and Mt. Rose in particular. Here is for forecast for tonight (1/16) around 11:00: This storm will be out of the area by early tomorrow morning but should leave some snow down to about 5,000 feet on the backside. Because the leeward valleys currently are experiencing a very deep inversion, there is a possibility of some freezing rain, which is a very rare occurrence in these parts. Take a look at this setup for the coming series of storms starting very late on Friday (1/19): This is a typical El Nino setup, with several smaller storms that will move inland one after the other. The big stuff is forecast to come in starting Sunday (1/21) afternoon and will hit the entire state of California. So we are looking for snow, on and off, starting Friday and lasting through the following Tuesday. The one do

Next Storm Up For Saturday, Then Warming Trend

Our next storm will come in much warmer than this past storm. It could even help DMV get the roads somewhat passible in the valleys. This storm will tap into tropical moisture, but the snow to water ratios will be much lower. Put another way, we will get more moisture but either the same or less snow in the mountains. Here is the forecast for 4:00pm on Saturday (1/13): As this storm begins to hit our area, we could see some valley snow due to the Ice Box Effect. Currently, the snow cover and surrounding mountains are holding the cold air in the valley. However, as the storm begins to come through, the warmer air will mix and we believe it will bring rain and a very soupy mess. As far as the Carson Range, we are looking for 1-2 feet of snow. Again, this is a fast moving storm and will be clear of our area by early Sunday morning. Much needed relief will follow next week as we will see valley high temps well into the 50's. El Nino will continue, however, next weekend with what is sha

Storm Machine is Beginning to Crank Up

These recent storms are certainly not indicative of what we would consider El Nino storms. However, after a very dry start to winter we will take it. We have been talking about the possibility of the storm machine finally showing up and we are seeing signs of that. First, we have another very cold slider type system, dropping out of the north for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Precip amounts for these types of storms are very tough to predict. Here is a look at the forecast for Wednesday: This will be all snow all the way down to the valley floors. We will probably squeeze out 6 inches and a dusting in the valleys. We are tracking a much larger storm for Saturday (1/13). The models are in good agreement about this event. This storm has the 2 elements we like to see; cold air from the north, warm and moist air from the south. What it is lacking is a blocking force to the East which would allow the storm to stall and dump. We don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but we are see

Cooler Storms On Tap

We have another series of more promising storms slated to hit our area on the 3rd, 6th and 10th of January. All of these storms are much cooler and will bring all snow to all Tahoe Resorts and snow to some valley locations and lake shore locations.  Unfortunately, these are still not the storms we are looking for as they will enter and exit our area in a relatively short period of time as these are all fast moving storms. 1/3/2024 This storm looks to be the best of the bunch. It will begin to effect our area on the 2nd (Tomorrow) but the heavy stuff looks to be coming early on the 3rd. All the weather models are in good agreement. We see around a foot of snow for Mt. Rose and possibly slightly more. Again, this is a much cooler storm. 1/6/2024 The models are not in total agreement on this one. The above image is the forecast by the ECMWF model, which has been the most reliable of the bunch. This will again be a colder storm and will begin to effect the area in the late afternoon of the