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Showing posts from December, 2017

Slider Will Usher in Cooler Air; Coastal Ridge Digs Deeper

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The cold front we talked about last post is right on time and we are sticking with 8-16 inches of champagne powder for Rose. The deeper the less likely for skiers and riders to break through and scrape the crust underneath. I am fairly confident we are looking at a good 10 inches and if things go just right up to 16 inches.

Then the ridge digs deeper. The coastal ridge in the jet is causing storms to go well north of us. This storm for tomorrow is due to that ridge flattening out. Here is a look at tomorrow:


One sneaky little trough in the jet is going to allow this moisture starved slider to drop in straight out of the north. However, there is a substantial cold front associated with this storm and snow ratios could hit 15-20 to 1 depending on the timing of the moisture and cold air. The above graphic shows the ridge of high pressure in jet stream. This is causing all weather to move north around the ridge and will keep us high and dry for some time, unfortunately.

Here is a look at …

Finally, Changes in the Forecast

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With our ridge of high pressure getting pushed slightly west, that opened a very narrow door for what we call a slider storm. That is a storm that comes from the north and east and slides down the leeward side of the Sierra. Usually, these storms have very little moisture but they always bring cold air. In this case, we finally got some winds in the valley to change the air and clean it up.

That was the first sign that we are starting to see a pattern change. The next sign will come this Wednesday in the form of an actual storm. Not a big storm or even a moist storm, but a storm nonetheless. Although this storm will come from the north and west, it will be more north than west and will bring in even cooler air. Here is a look at the forecast for Wednesday @ noon:


What we like to see is for these storms to tap into an active moisture plume from the south and west. As you can see this storm does not have much moisture to work with. Here are the forecast precip totals:


This will be all s…

Large Ridge of High Pressure to Continue to Dominate our Weather

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A very large ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather for the next 5 days. Around Thursday that ridge will begin to flatten which will allow unsettled weather and minor troughing to take place just before next weekend. We could even see an inside slider, but at very least we will see some wind make it down to the valley floors and mix up what will become some very poor air quality. If you live in the mountains, it is going to be a beautiful week.

Here is what we are up against. Notice the ridge of high pressure and how steep it is. Basically folks, that is the jet stream and all storms are going to go right around the ridge:



This ridge is also keeping pretty cool air in our area as the rotation of the winds is clockwise which is bringing cool air down from Canada.

Somewhere around Thursday and into Friday, the ridge will begin to flatten out, which should allow some minor troughing to come into our area in the form of wind and even possibly a little snow. More cool…

Strong Cold Front Knocking on the Door, Pattern Change Around Christmas?

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A well advertised, strong cold front is knocking at the door. Although this front does not have much moisture to work with, we believe that the Carson Range could pick up 3-12 inches of snow as the precip potential has increased. Our confidence is much higher with 3 inches than 12 inches. Here is a look at the peak of the storm which will be about 4:00 am Sunday morning:


The clash of warm and cold air is giving us some hope of a surprise and this storm may squeeze a little more precip than the models are suggesting.

After this storm passes, it is back to ridge city. Temperatures will slowly recover, but look for pretty deep valley inversions and crappy air quality next week. If you live in the mountains, it will be beautiful and the skiing up on Rose should be great as they have done a great job managing the snow and giving us pretty smooth, fast conditions.

It seems as though every weather outlet has hopped on the dry winter bandwagon. Of course we have been talking about this since …