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Showing posts from February, 2013

Swing and a Miss

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As is often the case, when the weather models are in wild disagreement, our hopeful forecasts whiff. Our potential for a foot or more of snow last week, faded into the weeds as both storms weakened significantly and only left behind 2-4 inches.

Our next hope was for the first week in March. My good friend, Sven, over at Unofficial Mt. Rose sent me an interesting tidbit from NOAA. That tidbit talks about conditions ripening in that first week of March. That sent me back to the models and lo and behold, the two most accurate models are now focusing on what looks like a decent snow event for around the 6th or 7th of March. In addition, both models are looking for another event about a week later, March 14th.

First let's take a look at the 3/6 event; I have posted 3 charts below. In chart one, around the beginning of March, we can clearly see that conditions are finally ripening. We have our blocking ridges of high pressure right where they need to be and a few decent sized storms poi…

Wash Your Car

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Beautiful weather for the weekend will turn into a series of storms heading our way for next week. The pattern change will begin on Tuesday and last through the weekend, at least. These systems will bring in much colder air but the models are in stark disagreement with the amount of moisture headed for the Sierra.

We will focus on the more consistent EC model. Below are a series of forecasts for what I would call  chances for moderate snow in the Sierra on Tuesday night, Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday Night
Friday (2-22)
Saturday (2-23)
These storms together could bring as much as 1-2 feet of snow to the Sierra and Carson range. They will also bring much cooler temps and much windier conditions. Remember, the EC model is the most aggressive. The GFS, which has been the least reliable model for a couple of years now, is predicting much less precip.

Finally I wanted to show you why a chance exists for these conditions and storms to continue into the first week of March. This is the EC long r…

Changes Coming, but Slowly

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After a month of high pressure dominating our weather, there are indications that changes are coming. However, they are taking their time getting here. In my last post I talked about conditions ripening for a more stormy weather pattern around the first or second week of February. I am tracking a decent sized storm that will make it to our area. However, by the time it gets here, it will have weakened and will probably not bring significant snowfall to Tahoe. That storm which is heading toward the Washington/Oregon coast now, will make it's way into our area Friday and Saturday. As it moves inland, it will severely weaken, however. Here is a look at late Friday:



This storm, like the past few will be moisture starved and will probably really kick our winds. It will also usher in a much cooler air mass.

Where others see disappointment, I see opportunity. This storm is going to knock down our stubborn ridge of high pressure. Although the ridge will return by Sunday, it will be positi…