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Showing posts from November, 2013

Massive Cold Front Ushers in Very Cold Air, Little Precipitation In Near Term

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There is a lot of cold air coming our way. We will get our first taste of winter starting on Tuesday. The leading edge of this cold air looks to be our best chance of snow for the next 10 days or so as our very dry pattern continues. High temperatures will not reach freezing on Wednesday and will probably not climb out of the 40's for a couple of weeks.

That is the bad news. The good news is the 30 day still looks pretty good. Starting around 12/11 we should start to see the storms make it to our area. EC has been pretty consistent on this December event so keep the faith. Of course around the 10th, you cold wash your car ... that may help too.

Here is a look at the 30 day total precip; remember this is liquid precip. With the colder pattern this could translate into quite a bit of snow by the end of the month. Again, we should see storms showing up on the short term weather models in about a week and the fun could get started around the 11th of December.


Stay Tuned ...

Weather to Remain Dry for at least 9 Days

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If you believe the models, which change their mind more than my high school girlfriend, things are not looking good in the near term for any precip at all. We have a storm that is coming in from the west. However, just about the time it see's land, it cuts straight south and will have no effect on our weather whatsoever.

I am tracking a storm that could show up in about a week to 9 days that I will talk about next. In the meantime, a weak slider could come into the area and leave a dusting or slightly more next Monday or Tuesday.

The best chance I see comes into our area around the 5th of December (one week from Thanksgiving). The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (I oftentimes refer to it as the "EC") forecasts this for a week from Thursday.


The EC has this storm coming right over us and it could (I want to repeat could) leave a very welcome foot or two of snow behind in the mountains around Lake Tahoe.
I want to remind everybody that my friends over at…

Snowy December is in the Cards

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As the current storm continues to provide on again off again moisture, I wanted to take a look at our next opportunity for mountain snow. It looks like a weak to moderate system will move in from the west and come inland to our area in about a week. Here is the EC weather forecast for the middle of next week, around Thanksgiving day:




The potential exists for a similar event to what we are experiencing now.

We are still on track for what looks like a series of large storms for our area starting around the December 9th. Here is a long term forecast for late on the 9th of December:


This is a much larger storm than anything we have seen this year. It is projected to make shore in Washington and send heavy precip all the way down the coast to from Northern Washington to Southern California.

Three days later around the 12th or 13th of December a smaller system is being projected to come into our area with an ample precip tap:


A few days later another storm comes into the area:


Then a few da…

Finally, Mountain Snow Coming Our Way

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The latest model runs are in pretty good agreement that this next series of systems, brought in by a split jet-stream that looks to be putting Tahoe in the cross-hairs, should bring some good precip. The big benefactor here will be the Carson Range and Slide Mtn in particular. Snow levels will vary, but it looks like all snow at 8,000 and above. The timing of the systems starts late tomorrow afternoon and lasts through Thursday with on again, off again snow for the Sierra.

These storms are weak, but are packing some serious moisture. Some models have 1.5 inches of liquid precip. I believe Slide Mountain will pick up between 12-18 inches of snow (at the top) by Friday morning. Depending on altitude, some areas on the west side of the lake could see 2 feet or more. Hey, better than nothing.

Here is a look at the NAM weather model and what we can expect in the way of liquid precip:


A small area of 2-2.5 inches west of the Lake. Around 1 inch for the Carson range. I believe those totals a…

Is There Anything To Look Forward To?

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The first time all year the models were leaning toward a winter storm. As quickly as they forecast it, they changed the forecast. This has been a very slow start to the year. The chance of anything decent being open by Thanksgiving looks very bleak.

The next chance for the storm machine to get cranking comes on or about November 26th. However, the 30 day precip model is not terribly optimistic for any major storms coming between now and the 2nd week in December although it is looking at some moderate precip between November 26th and December 5th.

Here is a look at the total precip forecast for the next 30 days, almost all of this comes after the 26th:


You can see the storms will be creeping up on us, however the EC model (shown here) believes most precip will be to our north and west, where they will pick up 10+ inches of the liquid stuff. For our area we are looking at between 2-5 inches and that is being very optimistic. Couple that with seasonally warm temperatures and you see the …

Storms Weaken, Ridge Builds In

I may have jumped the gun with my last forecast. Like I said, I do not get paid so I can tell you what the models are hinting much more in advanced than the professionals. Next weeks storms have not only weakened, but a ridge of high pressure will move more north and west and block the weaker systems from reaching us. Therefore, never mind on next weeks storms, our string of gorgeous weather looks like it is going to last for at least another week or two.

Stay Tuned ...

Changes Coming For Next Week, Maybe

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Ok, that extended golf season I promised did not disappoint. We had a beautiful stretch of weather that looks like it will come to an abrupt halt with the seasons first major winter storm next week. First I will talk about the storm or storms, and then I will caution you as I am only showing the GFS model.

Late next Monday the fun will begin with a cutoff low moving precip into our area. Here is a look at the GFS forecast for next Monday evening:


This is a weaker system, but it is ushering in what I believe will be a major change to our weather pattern. The real fun gets going late next week, somewhere around the 14th or 15th of November as a major storm moves down the coast and taps into some real decent moisture. Here is a look for the morning of Friday November 15:


As always, not all the news is good. I have two concerns. First, the EC weather model is late in seeing this development. I believe it will fall into line, but as of yet it is calling for 2 inches of liquid precip. There…