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Showing posts from February, 2017

Next Weakens Further

This is a quick update to the forecast. This next storm's trajectory is now almost straight out of the north. That completely cuts off the moisture tap we have seen for the past couple of months. We no longer see any type of major precip event. In fact, we are now forecast 3-6 inches of snow for the Carson range Sunday night into early Monday morning. However, expect strong winds on Sunday ahead of the front and much colder air starting Monday, with a return to average temps by Thursday.

Looking ahead, we see no major weather events for the next 10 days.


Stay Tuned ...

Next Storm Colder, Drier

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As the cold front passed through last night, it severed the line of warm moist air to Tahoe. As a result, it looks now like we may receive an extended break, with the exception of a fast moving, much cooler storm that is on tap for this weekend.

The original model runs showed a much better moisture tap. Now, this storm's trajectory is much more out of the north and I do not see a major weather event like what we have witnessed over the last couple of months. Once this storm moves out, high pressure will take over for at least 4-5 days.

The storm will arrive Sunday afternoon and be gone by Monday at noon. Here is a quick look at the forecast for Sunday evening:


This is a much cooler storm than we have seen in quite some time, so I look for higher snow ratios. In fact, I still see around 2 feet of very light powder for Mt. Rose on Monday. While the other side of the lake could see double that in some places particularly at the Sierra Crest.

Here is what we are looking at in the way …

Heavy Sierra Snow Continues Until Wednesday, Then Short Break, Then Another Impressive Storm for Next Weekend

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Averages have a way of catching up. We have been saying that for years. Last year we shifted from an extremely dry pattern to an average winter. That trend told us, that those averages were going to start catching up, this year. That is why we predicted an above average snowfall year. We had no idea!
This latest storm continues to pound Northern California and the Sierra. It will continue until Wednesday morning then we will have a short drying out. Here is a look at the current conditions:

As this latest storm moves inland, it will give way to a drier period. That will last until Saturday afternoon when the next system moves in. That system can be clearly seen along with its path straight to California. Those two storms will eventually become one larger storm. Again, that storm will have a very large moisture tap. Here is a look at the forecast for next Saturday afternoon:


Currently, the models are not showing another massive moisture event. However, the scales have changed. We can e…

Deja Vu ... All Over Again

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The party gets going again around noon on Thursday. A massive storm which is centered well to our north will spin up at least 5 smaller storms and throw them right into the entire state of California, including Tahoe.


Like we have seen for the last month and a half, these storms have plenty of subtropical moisture to work with. 
Here is the forecast for Thursday at noon:

As these storms tap into the subtropical moisture, they will come in warm. As they exit they will pull down cooler air ... until the next system arrives. So look for around 8,000 feet on this first storm, with snow levels coming down to around 5,500 feet as we get on the back side.
Then, late Friday night, we have a split condition. The storm will split with the moisture tap partially broken for Tahoe, but on full display for Central and Southern California:


The next storm shows up around Sunday at noon. This storm will pull more air from the north and less from the south, which means far less precip, but possibly all…

Strong, Damaging Winds for Thursday give Way to Heavy Mountain Snow and Valley Rain

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The strongest winds of the season are heading our way. They will start up tonight and continue into the afternoon tomorrow. Ridge top winds will exceeed 150mph, while downslope winds for the leeward foothills could see gusts in excess of 100 mph.

The next big wave of moisture will start up tomorrow afternoon and with it we will have falling snow levels. I expect Mt. Rose to pick up all snow starting tomorrow afternoon. I expect an additional 2-4 feet of snow by Friday evening. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow @ noon:


By the time Saturday afternoon rolls around, we will be in the sunshine with above average temps through next Thursday.

Then everything changes back!

We are tracking several large storms that appear headed right at Tahoe. Here is a look at the forecast for the 16th of February:


More impressive is the pattern that is setting up, with a massive storm to the north spinning off waves of smaller storms and sending them straight through Tahoe:


These storms look to be…

One More Big Storm, Then at least a 5 Day Break

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The biggest change in our forecast certainly has to do with the snow levels. First of all, take a look at what we can expect tomorrow:


This storm is packed with moisture. It is arriving on the heels of our last storm so we will continue to see moisture and wind until about next Friday afternoon. This moisture is coming straight from Hawaii and with it will come some very warm air. Much warmer than what we forecast last week. Although snow levels will probably not get much above 8,000 feet, we could see a period of rain on half of Slide Mountain. This is a pure pineapple express, here is a look at the Pineapple Express in its purest form:


Pinpointing exact snow levels is very difficult, we believe 8,000 is pretty much as high as the rain will get for any sustained period. However, we could be way off too. If we see rain at 10,000 feet, things could get dicey, especially with all the moisture packed into this storm. I wish I could tell you with certainty what will happen at what elevati…

Several More Storms are Stacked up and Heading Our Way

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Here is a look at the current conditions in the Northern Pacific:


The current storm should continue to pound us off and on through the night and then to a lesser degree tomorrow and tomorrow night. The Next storm can be seen on the picture above. It will follow a nearly identical path and bring more moisture to the area. Then, on the heels of that storm, another storm will gain strength and follow the nearly identical path.

There is copious amounts of moisture in the sub-tropical Pacific for these storms to tap into. I see snow elevations moving down slightly but staying between 5,500 and 7,500 feet. Here is the forecast timing of these events:

Early Monday Morning (3:00am)
This is the beginning of the second storm of the three we talked about earlier. This will last throughout the day on Monday. We will get a very short break around 2:00am Tuesday morning until about noon on Tuesday, then the same storm will send us a huge wave of moisture.

4:00 Tuesday Afternoon
Here, you can clearly …