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Showing posts from January, 2010

Next Storm Late Sunday and Monday

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We can officially say goodbye to the Pineapple express, for now. Take a look at the following Satellite picture compared to the prior post:




Gone but not forgotten. We have some incredible conditions up and down the Sierra. Scott and i spent a day in the Chutes yesterday, and it was unbelievable. Here take a look:


The snow was deep, the crowds small, the temps perfect ... and it was snowing hard. We talked with a ski patrolmen and he said the snow was perfect. According to him they threw bombs all over the chutes and everything held. When we got in there, it was waist deep in most places. Most of the rocks were covered up as well.

This storm cycle is not quite over. If you look at the satellite image above, there is still a pretty strong storm out in the Pacific and it is headed our way. It will weaken and make shore north of us where it will split. It still should have some pretty good strength to send some moisture our way for Sunday night through Monday. The northern section of the s…

The Pineapple Express

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Oftentimes we have heard about a weather anomaly in Tahoe called the Pineapple express. That anomaly is a combination of many factors including the southern jet stream and sub tropical moisture plume. For the most part it represents a huge swath of precipitation stretching from Lake Tahoe all the way to Hawaii. Get the picture? No? Here take a look:



This moisture is stretching a little too far north for us to see the epic storm conditions that normally happen in a Pineapple Express.

Last Storm in The Cycle
As you can clearly see, however, we are not done. In fact the largest storm is about to come in an blast us starting this afternoon and lasting through most of Thursday. This storm should bring us an additional 3-5 feet over the crest. That should translate to around 2-4 feet at Mt. Rose in the Carson Range. Believe it or not, the majority of energy for this storm is heading well south of us. We are on the northern edge of the storm. Here are the totals for this storm alone:



Down aro…

Wednesday Afternoon (1/20) through Thursday Night (1/21)

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In our continuing series analyzing the storms that appear stacked up and ready to pummel Tahoe and even, to a now greater extent, Southern California, we will look at Wednesday and Thursdays storm. As the super charged, 200+ kt Jet Stream moves south, so too do the track of the storms. There will be plenty of precip left for Northern California, just not as much as we once thought. First, let's take a look at total accumlated precip for the week, this is pretty impressive:





Almost all of California is in the 5+ inch range. Like I said before many of highest elevations in the Sierra, especially the central Sierra around Mammoth and Yosemite will see 10-20 inches of precip.

Now let's focus on Wednesday and Thursday. The good stuff will start around 4:00 pm on Wednesday and last through the night into the early hours of Thursday morning. There will be a short lull about 4:00am on Thursday until about 10:00am. Again, this might be a good morning to hit the pow. Then shortly after 1…

Tuesday (1/19) Afternoon's Storm

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In our continuing series we will talk about a single storm at a time. Right now there are at least a half dozen storms stacked up and ready to blast Tahoe. In today's installment, I will talk about Tuesday's storm. Before I do, Sunday/Monday's storm, appears to have actually gained strength.

Tuesday's storm does appear to be the weakest in our series, at least for now. The really heavy stuff will start coming in late Tuesday afternoon. It should snow heavily in the mountains for around 12 hours. After that, we may get a short reprieve before another large storm comes in on Wednesday. Here is a look at Tuesday afternoon:

This storm will actually split with half the energy moving into Southern California. The other half will pummel Tahoe.

Here is a very interesting graphic. This is the total precipitation for the first two storms in our series. Notice the little white specs. Those are areas of 5-10 inches of liquid precip. There are very many places in the Sierra that by …

One Storm At a Time - 1/17 - 1/18

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Although a weak system will be coming through our area Saturday night, the first decent storm in what will become a long series of storms will hit our area Sunday Night through Monday. Here are precipitation predictions for that storm:


As we can clearly see, most of the Sierra around Tahoe will pick up between 2-4 inches of liquid precipitation. Because the air will be cool, this will translate to between 3-4 feet of snow. That is for the Sierra Crest on the West side of Lake Tahoe moving south. The Carson Range, on the east side of Lake Tahoe, could receive from 1-3 feet of snow.

This storm will come in two bursts. The first will be Sunday night starting around 10:00. Then another burst will come in Monday night into Tuesday.

The next storm will hit our area Tuesday (1/19), with another on Thursday (1/21). The storm on Thursday looks really impressive. I will talk about these two storms in my next post.

Stay tuned ...

The Perfect Storm III

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First let me say that today's storm has gained strength and moisture. Should be a decent snow event for the Sierra, including the Carson Range. I guess about 18 inches will fall up at Rose. All snow, despite the high levels. This will be all rain for the valley. That should melt most of the remainder of the snow and start to open the golf courses again.

Let's talk about next week. If the weather models have it right, this could be the stormiest week I have ever seen since moving here. There are storms literally stacked up for 10 days. Pineapple express? Perhaps.


Let's take a little closer look. First, the PNA is moving negative. This is a sure sign of conditions being ripe for stormy weather. Here is the latest NOAA run:

The following are GFS predictions for next week, please notice the days:

Monday (1/18)



Late Tuesday (1/19)



 Early Thursday (1/21)



Early Saturday (1/23)



 Sunday Afternoon (1/24)




Tuesday Morning (1/25)



I could keep going but do not want to look more than 15 days dow…

Storm on Track For Tuesday and Wednesday

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The storm has held together and the conditions are becoming much more ripe for a change in our pattern starting on Monday Afternoon. NOAA has the PNA index moving negative, that is a change. The huge cold front that was blocking everything has moved on ... that is another positive change. El Nino is picking up strength and should begin to have a tremendous impact on our weather.

The majority of this system will be arriving on Tuesday. Wednesday would appear to be the powder day on the mountain. However it should be snowing all day on Tuesday. Snow levels will start fairly high 7,500 feet, and drop as the system moves through. I do not see any valley snow.

But this storm is tiny compared to what is coming in for the following week. There will be some more weak systems move through next weekend. The following week is shaping up to be a very stormy week with some of the more impressive moisture contents I have seen. Here is what GFS says will happen Janary 20:



This is the first of what ap…

Pattern Shift Slowly Coming

The models have backed off a drastic pattern shift for next week, however there is a slow shift coming. Next week should bring in a pretty decent storm Monday and Tuesday with at least a foot of snow for the Sierra. The bigger shift will come later in the month as a number of indicators should allow the jet to move storms back through our area. If you live in the east, the massive cold front will break down and finally move on. That should open the door for weather to change in our area too.

Truly amazing is our current pattern as the massive ridge to the SW and massive storm to the NW have not moved in about 10 days. Everything is just stuck. That should change, but it won't happen for at least another week and probably closer to two weeks. That means crap air for the valley with more deep inversions and weak pockets of energy coming through about every 4 days.

The air down there is terrible right now. However, tomorrow should clear at least some of it out as a weak trough will s…