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Showing posts from 2014

When Will The Storms Return?

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Ok, I admit it, I did not see this last slider producing so much snow for the Carson Range. Shame on me. In my own defense, they are tough to predict. The snow to water ratio was very high due to the cold, so the 14 inches received at Mt. Rose was a bit misleading. Nonetheless, a very pleasant surprise!

Sliders like this last one present two problems; first they bring in really cold air. I know many of you see that as a benefit, but 8 degrees in Reno is just too cold ... at least for me. Secondly, these are storms that are dropping down from the north, over land, usually packing very little moisture. Our big storms come over sea and pack large amounts of moisture. Sliders such as this usually signify some sort of blocking ridge to our west. As most of you know, this is not good. Especially when we are down for the season in the way of snowfall. The slider aint going to catch us up!

Ok, so as you no doubt have heard, we have a large ridge of high pressure to our west that is blocking a…

Is Santa Going to Bring Snow?

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Current A powerful cold front is dropping out of the Northwest right through Tahoe. This storm will bring with it heavy snow at times. It will, however, be pretty fast moving. I see every indication that we will be on the upper end or exceed my 6-9 inch prediction of a few days past. Below is the current Satellite. Their is plenty of moisture to tap into. The only thing keeping this from being a Pinneapple express is the lack of a blocking system to stall our front. However, as it is, I see about a foot of snow and maybe even more for Slide Mountain. About the same for the rest of Tahoe as snow levels will be at or below Lake level.

Near Term This system will be all done by noon tomorrow and behind it look for high pressure to take over. Do not, however, look for warm temperatures like we have seen this week as it will remain cool until the the next storm moves in next week.
Long Term As I mentioned in my last post I am tracking a pretty good system coming our way right after the first …

Don't Expect Dry Weather to Last Too Long

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The word is out. High pressure is coming to Tahoe and will dominate our weather into and maybe through 2015. Part of the problem of having 85,000 readers is they tend to think that anybody, including yours truly, knows what they are talking about when it comes to medium term weather forecasting! Most other forecasters, who undoubtedly spend much of their time on this site, charge their readers by posting annoying adds that allow you to download malware, spyware, etc. I cannot do that. Posting adds on the site and taking revenue would mean I am providing a dependable service. I am not, nobody is, trust me!

I actually made the first chairs this morning on the Slide Side of Mt. Rose and the talk of the line was ridge city, or another way to put it, no more snow.

I guess after the last few years we are still a bit shell shocked. My last post was perhaps a bit too direct to a public that is almost waiting for the bad news to come. Let me qualify this; the long range forecast shows a dry pe…

High Pressure About to Take Over; Long Range Forecast, DRY!

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I apologize for a busy travel schedule. However, not much has changed since my last post, unfortunately!

We have two shots for much needed additional snowfall. One of those is knocking on the door right now. This system is weak but holding together. We can expect perhaps 3-9 inches of snow at Mt. Rose and slightly more near the western crest of the Sierra.

There is a very ample moisture tap but not enough strong storms that can tap it and have enough lift to get over the mountains. The "storm of the season", as dubbed by the NWS, brought tremendous precip to California but did not have the lift to get over the Sierra, then took an abrupt turn south. That was very disappointing as that was the only storm with the potential to add significant snowfall. Very painful, all that moisture just 60 miles away!

Our next chance of snow comes on Christmas Eve. However, the models are backing off a significant precip event for this. Our problem now is a large ridge of high pressure which…

Major Winter Storm on the Doorstep; Damaging Winds for the Eastern slopes of the Carson Range

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Last post we talked about a large storm with great potential. This storm is now knocking on the door and our original forecast timeline is still right on. This storm is born in the north and will slide down the coast, enter Northwestern California, stall, then move straight into Tahoe. With it will come very strong winds that will have an impact on Tahoe and Reno, especially the wind prone areas of the leeward foothills. The NWS has issued a high wind warning, so be prepared these winds will start Wednesday night and will be very powerful, as high as 90mph down the eastern slopes!
The storm will continue to slide south and the heaviest precip will fall in the Central Sierra. Tahoe will pick up quite a bit of precip, but just south from Kirkwood to Mammoth will see the most preicp. Here is a look at the forecast for around noon on Thursday:

There is a very large moisture plume to the south that this storm is going to tap into and it will bring very beneficial rains to most of Californi…

Coming Storms Could Be Bigger

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A series of storms are headed our way and if the models are correct, should bring even more snow to the Sierra around Tahoe. The first wave comes in very late Friday night and should stick around for most of Saturday. The next Disturbance comes in very early Monday morning. Both of these are minor disturbances.

A much larger system will then make its way to our area and could arrive very early on the morning of Thursday December 11. This system could hang around long enough for the next system to rear end it! Here is a look at early Thursday, 1 week from today:


This system has several waves and is moving Northwest to Southeast and could (still a week out) score a bulls eye on Tahoe. Another very large system could appear on the heels of this system, but that is even further out. The models have been pretty good, at least the ones I look at, this year so I am very optimistic. Then again as a friend told me on the mountain today, it is because his friend brought bad luck and has now lef…

This is not Over Yet, Another System for Late Friday

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With better than expected snowfall totals from yesterday, we are looking at the upper range of our earlier 18-36 inch forecast for the Carson Range.

Mt. Rose has been the big winner thus far with all snow (Unofficial Rose).

I expect heavy snow today and tonight, followed by a brief lull and then another storm comes in for Friday.

Here is the forecast for 4:00 this afternoon as the storm continues to pound our area:



I expect the snow to continue until about 3:00 Thursday morning and then expect periods of snow as the front passes through.

Snow levels will remain in the 7000-7500 foot range. I expect another foot or possibly more for the Carson range above 7,500 by Thursday night.

Another system moves in for Friday. The models have that system coming in from the north and I do expect it to make it down to our area and bring even more snow, 4-8 inches by early Saturday morning. Here is a look at the forecast for 10:00 Friday night:


Above 10,000 feet in the Carson Range we could be talkin…

Deep Low Pressure System Approaches, Heavy, Wet Snow on Tap for Sierra

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A deep low pressure system will tap into ample moisture to our south and bring rain and snow to the Sierra and most of California. Snow levels will be very high for this storm and I do not expect any snow to make it anywhere near the valley floor or even the eastern foothills. Here is a look at the current weather:


This is a big wet, warm storm. I think elevations above 8,000 feet will see all snow. Below that will probably be a mixture. Lake level will see most if not all rain. The leeward valleys will also see rain, perhaps as much as a half inch. The further west you go from there, the more rain you will see.

As the storm approaches tomorrow night here is a look at the foreacast:


The first wave will hit Tahoe and south pretty hard. Very beneficial rains will fall through Central and Southern California. Mammoth is going to get slammed. 
The second wave comes in Wednesday night and should center its attention on Tahoe:

As the storm moves on shore, it will slow down and I look for pr…

Storm Delayed, Models Show Weakening

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The large storm that I talked about last post is being delayed, heavy traffic out in the Pacific. However, we are still in for a stormy 5-7 days starting tomorrow around noon. Several waves are poised to come in and hit us before the main storm makes its way to us on Tuesday of next week. Here is a look at the forecast for late Tuesday night:


Here is a look at the total liquid precip being forecast through next Wednesday:


If you read my last post you will see the forecast has decreased the amount of total precip, Especially for the Carson Range as this storm will be Shadowed by the western Crest to a certain degree. However, by next Wednesday, most Tahoe ski areas should have much more snow to work with, I would say upwards of 3 feet. Again, Mt. Rose with it's high base should make out well. This storm will come in warm and as the cold front moves through, snow levels will plummet. I would say all snow above 7,500 feet.

Looking further down the road, I am tracking two very strong …

First Large Storms of the Season Could Arrive Next Weekend

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Picking up where we left off, last post, conditions have been ripening for a more serious storm cycle to come to our area (finally). I am seeing things in the shorter term models that are now aligning with the longer term models (see fantasy forecast from last post).

I must say, I am very excited with anticipation. Just a quick disclaimer, we are still 5-6 days out so things could change, but here is what the most reliable weather model is saying today and has been hinting at for the last 3 weeks. I will take you through a series of forecasts starting very late on the 28th;

Friday November 28th 11:00pm, Storm is still to our west but a large plume of moisture is starting to form:




Saturday November 29th 3:00pm, storm increases in size and begins to stall with the center just off the coast of Northern California.


Sunday November 30th 4:00 am, storm has completely stalled and is picking up strength



Monday December 1 1:00am, storm has spun up into one of the most impressive storms we have see…

Models Trending Upward for Precip over the next 3 Days; Long Range Looking Good

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Checking the latest run of the EC weather model, I notice that it is trending upward for precip potential for Saturday afternoon's storm (see last post). Here is an updated look; seems the wave has a little more moisture to work with:


We are now looking for up to 2 inches at the Crest and perhaps half that in the Carson Range. Snow levels are a bit tricky, but I think anything above 7,500 will be all snow. As the front passes through snow levels could drop to the valley floor. However, no valley accumulation is expected. Just as a disclaimer, the NWS is not seeing this and is predicting a dusting to 2 inches at the Crest and a whiff for the Carson Range. I guess we will see as I am looking at 2 feet at the Crest and probably a good foot of snow on Slide Mountain (and maybe more) by Sunday afternoon.

Fantasy Forecast
I have been watching the EC 30 Day weather model, which surprisingly is in disagreement with their Deterministic (10 Day) weather model. The Long Range has a series of …

Weak Storm Cycle Starts Up Thursday

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A series of small storms are headed our way starting very early Thursday and lasting through Sunday. I do not see any major precip events, but before all is said and done we could see a few feet of mountain snow around the crest and about a foot in the Carson range. There are 3 distinct waves headed our way.

Wave 1 Earl Thursday Morning

Wave 2 Early Friday Morning
Wave 3 Late Saturday
As you can see for yourself, the 3rd wave is the biggest of all, but still not very impressive. Here is a look at the total precip for the 3 waves combined:

The Western Crest of the Sierra could see some areas in the 1-2 inch range, especially north. The Carson range is in the .5 to 1 inch range. That will translate into about a foot of snow by next Monday above 7,000 feet. Probably not enough to fill up the ponds for the pond hockey players.
I continue to read that things are setting up nicely. Traditionally this sort of setup can usher in larger and wetter storms. However, I am still unable to pin point a…

Nice Weather Continues for about a Week

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Summer/Fall have been very stubborn to leave. With just a few exceptions, Old Man Winter has been nowhere to be found. However, we live in Tahoe and we are due, so you know that is going to change. I am picking up a change in the pattern coming around Thursday of next week.

The culprit (for our nice weather), as usual, is the high pressure ridge which is setup just off the California Coast. There are indications that we could slide that ridge south and allow the storms to start to effect our area. Here is a current look at our weather. Notice the high pressure ridge and how it is blocking any storms from our area:


Here is a look at the middle of next week, notice how the ridge has slid south opening the door for at least some storm activity:


Right now, the storm on tap for next Thursday looks like it will weaken as it approaches the Sierra. However it could hang around for a couple of days and it is still 6 days out so a lot can change. Here is a look at very early on Thursday:


Fantasy…

First El Nino Storm, Turbulent November in the Cards

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A smallish storm sitting off the coast of Oregon is having an effect on our weather and will continue to do so. Tomorrow ushers in some moisture that should be snow in the upper elevations. The storm will weaken as it moves inland and therefore the amount of moisture will be limited. Here is a look at the forecast for very early tomorrow morning:


This storm will bring a healthy amount of moisture to the Northern California coast, but lacks the lift to make it far into the Sierra with any kind of significant moisture content. 6-12 inches are possible on the western crest with up to 6 inches in the Carson range, above 8,500 feet. If the models get this wrong, we could see even more, so keep your fingers crossed.

Looking ahead, the westerlies start to show up around the 1st or 2nd of the month. A storm, straight from the west, will have an impact on Central California and our area. Here is a look at the forecast for November 2nd:


As with most storms from the south and west, this will be …