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Showing posts from May, 2012

El Nino by September/October?

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After nearly 2 months of stable weather, a strong storm for this time of year, has moved into our area and is bringing some very welcome precipitation. Back in the beginning of April, our La Nina conditions died and moved into ENSO-neutral conditions. That brought on our very stable weather until this storm. Does this mean another weather pattern change could be upon us? In a word no. Our weather will quickly recover and become stable again gradually getting warmer as summer approaches. I believe this summer will bring above average temperatures. We cannot have below average precip because we average nearly no precip in the months of June, July and August combined.

Many of the weather models have our ENSO-neutral (ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions possibly transitioning into El Nino by the September, October time frame. Why does this matter? Simple, El Nino will almost certainly bring us above average precip for the winter of 2012/2013. After going below normal for 2011/…