Showing posts from December, 2010

Storm Update

Strong Storm Hold Together
The storm I talked about for the 30th is coming a day or two early. Of course I talked about this before Christmas, so I am pleased that things have held together. This is shaping up to be a big storm with several feet for the Tahoe and surrounding areas. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be an all out blizzard on top of the mountain. A very cold, large area of Low Pressure is moving out of the Gulf (of Alaska) and down the coast. A huge moisture plume that stretches beyond Hawaii will collide with this arctic air mass. The storm will tap into the moisture and send it right over the Sierra. This is similar to another Pineapple express event. Unfortunately, our cold Low Pressure system is going to make shore in Oregon and move out of the area relatively fast. The entire event will be over by the end of Wednesday. Behind the low is some very cold air. Our temps will plummet, the conditions on the mountain should be near perfect for the remainder of the…

Let It Snow

The above image is a girl, this week, trying to dig out her car at Mammoth, with what appears to be an ice scraper. A good friend sent me this image and it gives you an idea of just how much snow has fallen in the Sierra. This picture could play out anywhere from the Central to Northern Sierra as snow could be measured accurately in yards!

Weather Moving Forward a bit Sketchy
What will the weather be like moving forward? There are currently two schools. The first school is the NWS and the local meteorologists. They believe that things are going to eventually wind down and we will return to some normalcy. The storms I have been warning about around Christmas and New Years are not of particular concern right now. They believe that the pineapple express has moved significantly south and will eventually move out of the area. Take a look at the satellite, which appears to support their argument:

The other school is the weather models, NOAA and Myself. There is a very large storm forming up…

Storms May Continue Through Year

Checking the latest GFS run we are looking a the possibility that the storms may continue through the end of the year. Our best chance for a slight break will be Monday night through Tuesday night before another wave, from this same system, blasts us on Wednesday. We will get another break on Thursday and Christmas Eve. Then on Christmas day another storm sets up to our west. Here is a look at 10:00am on Christmas day:

This storm will dump more snow in the Tahoe Sierra starting late on Christmas day and lasting through December 26th.

Next, after a short break, a much larger storm sets up on the 29th of December and lasts into the New Year. Here is a look at the morning of December 29th:

Stay tuned ...

Storm Totals Very Impressive

Where Are The Drought Mongers?
Has anybody heard if the drought is officially over? Remember my first blog of the season? In that column I warned people not to believe the La Nina hype. I had been hearing that because of La Nina we will have very little snow this winter. Check it out: First Blog This Season.

Storm Update
Anyway, on to the business at hand. The big boys are still arguing over the area that gets pummeled the hardest. I say who cares? Almost the entire state of California is going to get drenched by this series of storms known as the Pineapple Express. The storms will not stop coming until next Wednesday. The first in the series is already here. First, let's take a look at the latest satellite, notice that the line has moved north. I think that it is likely that the southern part of Lake Tahoe is the bullseye:

Next, let's look at what the weather models are predicting for precipitation through next Wednesday:

Finally let's look at the impact these storms will h…

Get Ready For The Pineapple Express

Current Storms (Friday - Tuesday)

Conditions are just right for a major weather event for the entire west coast. Here is the latest satellite imagery:

The models are still all over the place as to exactly the area of the Sierra that gets hit the hardest. The potential for flooding is very real, as this is a very warm storm. Estimates are ranging from 7,000 - 8,000 feet as the snow level. I believe 7,000 is pretty accurate for the Tahoe area.

I am also sticking with yesterday's post that the brunt of the storm will hit in the Central Sierra just to the south of Lake Tahoe. The folks in Mammoth should brace for an amazing week of weather starting tomorrow. That is not to say that Tahoe is off the hook. Right now I believe the bulls eye is just south. The Tahoe Sierra is going to see a tremendous amount of snow. Check yesterday's post to get an idea of how much and when.

Coming Storms (12/26 - 12/30)
Looking ahead, we will get a slight break, however a similar pattern looks to be …

You Aint Seen Nothin Yet

Mt. Rose picked up close to 2 feet of fresh snow on Tuesday. If you think that was good wait until this weekend. All the elements are coming together for a dump that should last from Friday through Tuesday and could bring as much as .... dare I say it?? ... 6-14 additional feet of snow over the Sierra Crest.

In my last post I showed you a chart of why I am (everybody else has hopped on the bandwagon, where were they 2 weeks ago?) expecting heavy snow. Not much has changed, the cold low pressure system is making it's way down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska. It is already starting to tap into sub-tropical, warm, moist air. This is a lethal connection as this storm will form, rise and dump over the entire Sierra, all of California, and the western Nevada valleys. The following chart shows just what we can expect by Tuesday night:

In the Central Sierra, the GFS weather model is forecasting over 10 inches of liquid precipitation. Most of Tahoe is in the 3-8 inch range and the Leewar…

Big Changes On The Way, Starting Tonight, Lasting Through Christmas??

There are major changes on the way, starting with a weak storm coming through the area tonight and hitting the Sierra with decent snowfall all day tomorrow. Expect 1-2 feet of snow over the Sierra Crest and 6-12 inches of fresh snow at Mt. Rose by Wednesday. The winds will really start to kick up tonight.

A major storm, that I have been tracking for 2 weeks, is poised to slam the area late this week and into the weekend. Some model forecasts are looking at 4 inches of liquid precip for the Tahoe Sierra with snow levels between 6,000 and 7,000 feet. That could translate into 2-5 feet of snow. This storm is a ways off and I will update precip totals for the week, here is what we are looking at right now:

This is through next Tuesday. GFS is predicting this for 4:00 next Saturday:

Interestingly enough, Southern California is going to see a large amount of precip over the next week with some very good surf. Should be tube city  starting next Saturday and lasting about 4 days. So get the b…

Warm Weather Continues, But Changes Coming

Typical Tahoe
The Jet Stream remains well north of Tahoe which means mild weather with minor interruptions when smaller, weaker storms come through the Lake Tahoe area and leave 6-12 inches of snow behind, followed by more mild weather. That will continue with snow above 7,500 feet today and tonight, then mild Thursday followed by another short wave Friday. I played 9 holes of golf late yesterday afternoon, in shorts pants and short sleeves. Today, with early release, Scott and I will head up the mountain and tear it up for a few hours.

Mid to Upper 60's For Valley This Weekend
A large, warm ridge of high pressure moves in for this weekend through the beginning of next week. That will bring above average temperatures to the entire region with highs in the 50's in the mountains and 60's in the valleys. We may even be able to squeak out a 70 if we are lucky. Look for the slide side parking lot to be filled with tailgaters this weekend.

Extremely Wet Pattern Starts Up In 1 Week

Warm, Wet Storm Coming Our Way ... Storms Start Up Again In 10 Days?

The weather models are in alignment. A fairly weak, warm, moist air mass will move into the Tahoe Basin over the next several days and drop around a foot of snow above 7500 feet. Looking forward, the warm air will stay in our area for at least another week.

Looking way ahead, GFS has a fairly significant storm coming our way in about 10 days. This storm could bring significant mountain snow to the Tahoe area. Take a look:

The bad news is that this storm is 10 days away and much can change. The good news is, that this storm is the first in a series of very large storms that could affect the area. Take a look at the GFS forecast for two weeks out:

The really good news is that the PNA seems to be in agreement with GFS and has us moving into a stormy pattern that could exceed what we have seen over the last few weeks:

Remember as the PNA goes negative, our storms increase!

Keep your fingers crossed and stay tuned ...