Showing posts from December, 2019

High Pressure in Control; Major Pattern Change on Horizon

We are currently being dominated by High Pressure that is setup off the California coast: This large ridge of high pressure is blocking storms coming to our area. It is also blocking any sort of moisture tap for storms that can make it in. A perfect example; A storm will try and make it's way into our area tomorrow. However, it will be blocked and it's trajectory will be too far out of the north. In addition, it has literally no moisture to tap into. Therefore, we will get wind and cold but very little precip: This will bring us some moisture, but nothing like a real Sierra storm. The above forecast is the EC, which is much more bullish on this event than the GFS. Major Pattern Change? We are seeing at least the possibility of a major pattern change that should start to take shape round the 6th of January, 2020. Here is a look at late on the 7th. As the pattern shifts, the high is split in two and shoved out to sea: Notice the moisture tail returning and the

Weak Storm Knocking on Door, Then Dry through the Year

Well, the pattern change we were hoping for starting Christmas, seems to be nothing but a fantasy as all the models have backed off, including the long range models. After this next storm, which will open the door for a huge blocking ridge of high pressure to step in, we expect very dry weather with little if any precip for the Tahoe area through the remainder of this year. We are also seeing the beginning of January, at least, to be dry. Here is a look at the forecast for Sunday (12/22) at around noon: We could see around a foot of snow, but more likely in the 6 inch range as this storm is moving through rapidly. Notice the ridge which will move east and setup a blocking pattern: The outlook for January is for Below average precip and below average temperatures. Having said all this, in our never ending effort to locate a light at the end of the tunnel, the EC long range is predicting a possible pattern change around the middle of January. Stay Tuned ...

High Pressure Continues to Block Storms; Christmas Day Storm?

High Pressure has set up off the California coast and it will continue to send the storms just north of us with a few storms just edging into our area: The ridge of high pressure will be moved around slightly and some precip will continue to come into the area. We do not see a prolonged dry spell. So many of you may be asking, when will our next storm cycle start? From what we can see it will be a very merry Christmas as storms begin to arrive around Christmas day and should continue for several weeks after that. Of course, that is 10 days away and much of this analysis comes from 30 day forecast models, so this is not carved in stone. However, the 30 day models nutted the last storm cycle, so we are optimistic that Christmas will usher in a new cycle. Here is a look for the forecast on Christmas day around 4:00 in the afternoon: Our ridge has finally been kicked back out to sea and the storm door does appear to be opening. We are expecting very little precip between now

Expect Stormy Weather for next 10 Days ... At Least

We declared this storm cycle dead way too soon. The ridge of high pressure, which was supposed to setup off the coast and remain there, is having trouble holding it's ground. The storm machine remains active and we can expect stormy weather for at least the next 10 days. I do not see any storms like the kind we have been getting pounded by since Thanksgiving, but the snowfall totals will add up in the Carson Range. Here is a look at the 10 day forecast. Many of these storms are of the warmer variety, but for now, it does look like it will be snow at 7,500 feet and above: We are looking at a couple of inches of precip over the next 10 days. We are tracking another storm about 12 days out which we will keep an eye on. Notice the great majority of the precip is now heading up to the Pacific NW ... just not all of it as we are going to pick up minor amounts in several different disturbances. Stay Tuned ...

Last Storm in Series Hits Tonight; High Pressure Blockage for Next Week

The last storm in our series of storms will hit the Tahoe area tonight. Here is a look at the storm as it approaches the west coast: With the due west trajectory of this storm, it is going to come in warm with snow levels hovering around 7,500 feet. It is also has a tropical moisture tap which will bring in very warm, moist air. Probably best of all, for us valley dwellers, it will finally mix the air so the fog can lift out of here. We will start to see the impact this afternoon as high level mixing occurs. This storm will pound Tahoe through Sunday afternoon and will leave 2-4 feet of base making, wet snow in it's wake. High Pressure with then move in behind it. The storm machine will remain very active, but not for us. At least not for a little while as some giant storms will attempt to push the ridge out of here and reopen the storm door in about 10 days. Here is a look at the blocking ridge for next week: Our friends up in Portland and Seattle can expect some

Weather Pattern to Remain Active Through at least Mid-December

Our active weather pattern will continue through at least the middle of the month and may stay with us longer. Right now the EC and GFS weather models are in agreement that a series of storms are headed our way. However, they are not in complete agreement as to the impact of these storms on the Tahoe area and Northern Sierra. The current storm should continue to send waves of precipitation our way through the remainder of the day. The Low Pressure system, will then dip a bit south and make an attempt to come back up to our area. Right now, however, it looks like most of the remaining moisture will stay south. This storm really hit the brakes as it got to our area. We think the next storm will not arrive until Friday, which will give us a 3 day break in the precipitation. We have been tracking this storm for some time. Here is a look at the forecast for very late Friday night (December 6): This is a large storm, although the models have backed off on just how much precip is com